CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The November 19-24 period certainly has potential for interior areas but as far as the coastal plain and big cities, I'm not excited. It is going to take perfect timing and processess to get snow into these areas with this kind of pattern. But hey, it's late November, it is going to snow in the interior...not a big deal. I definitely agree this would be some sort of interior deal. The cold just isn't there and you guys mentioned how the cold is cutoff from this sort of split flow deal, if it were to happen. Just something to watch for the northeast anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 I definitely agree this would be some sort of interior deal. The cold just isn't there and you guys mentioned how the cold is cutoff from this sort of split flow deal, if it were to happen. Just something to watch for the northeast anyways. Hopefully far interior this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 not a cutter so perfect for the ski area bases, good start. Long duration ski season is what is needed economically. Like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Weeklies had a signal for a strong Pac jet into western Canada, but just a weird look overall...maybe something is fluctuating or changing at that time. Week 3 has low anonalies to the south...maybe a sign that the ensembles were sniffing out with the possible "event" after day10 and perhaps a successor to that. Week 4 has weak ridging at 500 overhead but a cold Canada, west and Plains and also a sort of 50/50 low without a real -NAO, although week ridging was noted into Greenland from Scandinavia. It's weak 4 so I don't expect it to really look like a strong signal either way. I suppose the bottom line is that with ensembles having signs for lower height anomalies to the south, look for the chance of a couple of storms chances perhaps after day 10, but with limited cold...this may be more of a NNE high elevation deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 With the arctic air supply being cut off from us and staying in Canada...the CAD look for beyond D10 almost has the unappealing 37F rain for the interior while it is 50F on the Cape...in other words, it doesn't really do us much good except give us a colder rain than we normally would have had. I guess we can hope for a trend colder in the availability of cold air, but it looks tough right now. The main polar jet is really stuck up by Hudson Bay around this time and we are just using a split flow weaker southern stream to generate a system....and being so far removed from the main PJ, we end up with a stale modified high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. A fir flattener for the interior? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. Might as well go for the whole family... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. Tip FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 It has a really strong 1042mb high up in Quebec...while not arctic, it is dry enough modified polar air that it wetbulbs the mid-levels to just below 0C. That would be how we hypothetically get a snow event out of that threat. Not much room for error though...and unlike this last event, we are not very cold right before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Nice. Gibbs storm. Just in time for a white t giving for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. Definitely not boring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 heh, I don't think I've ever seen a snow event under 564dm heights - that's a pretty darn strange synoptic set up there. It's dopey to even consider - last 5 cycles have looked decidedly different each one - take your pick on a D9 chart and good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 D10 Euro has the daughter of Sandy. *daughter of the son of sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The day 10 storm is the storm with that transient block I mentioned to watch down the road back on Tuesday or so. I mean it's in fantasy land, but because the flow gets cutoff, it's something to watch for either rain or snow. Usually nobody cares about 10 day outlooks and they shouldn't...but it's only brought up since the pattern will be otherwise boring. Still very well might be, but you know Sultan will have his tide charts and WV loops ready no matter what. I'm sure the euro is too robust, but kind of interesting that models are sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 *daughter of the son of sandy Sandy, that dirty dirty hooker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I definitely agree this would be some sort of interior deal. The cold just isn't there and you guys mentioned how the cold is cutoff from this sort of split flow deal, if it were to happen. Just something to watch for the northeast anyways. I'm much too exhausted to even consider the day 10 euro solution, lol. The GFS wasn't that different in its own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The day 10 storm is the storm with that transient block I mentioned to watch down the road back on Tuesday or so. I mean it's in fantasy land, but because the flow gets cutoff, it's something to watch for either rain or snow. Usually nobody cares about 10 day outlooks and they shouldn't...but it's only brought up since the pattern will be otherwise boring. Still very well might be, but you know Sultan will have his tide charts and WV loops ready no matter what. I'm sure the euro is too robust, but kind of interesting that models are sniffing something out. Would have been a good pattern in July for an EML advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Sandy, that dirty dirty hooker. haha so true... anyhow, your storm on the 12z euro run has a very march 13th, 2010 look to it, verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Nice. Gibbs storm. Just in time for a white t giving for us As the Gibbs man would say, that block is bootleg at best. So we have to rely on perfect timing with these transient features... I really can't imagine going through another wind / coastal flooding ordeal which is exactly what today's 12z guidance is hinting at Nov 19-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 It has a really strong 1042mb high up in Quebec...while not arctic, it is dry enough modified polar air that it wetbulbs the mid-levels to just below 0C. That would be how we hypothetically get a snow event out of that threat. Not much room for error though...and unlike this last event, we are not very cold right before it. Well, it is that two to three weeks further down the road like you wanted last time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 haha so true... anyhow, your storm on the 12z euro run has a very march 13th, 2010 look to it, verbatim LOL. not my storm, just something to watch and be entertained during this rather mundane pattern. We know the day 10 drill, but at least models sort of have something nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 LOL. not my storm, just something to watch and be entertained during this rather mundane pattern. We know the day 10 drill, but at least models sort of have something nearby. Well you were one of the first to bring the idea to the table so thats why i said it. And true, without focusing on the obvious fantasy solutions at day 10 on the op runs, I think we all at least agree from the ensembles and what not that this is a legitimate eastern storm threat to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Amazing how warm normal felt today after a very cold week, beautiful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Well, it is that two to three weeks further down the road like you wanted last time... Yes it is...but we won't have -10F departures the days leading up to the event like this past storm. If we did, that solution would show probably -6C or -8F 850 temps or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I'm much too exhausted to even consider the day 10 euro solution, lol. The GFS wasn't that different in its own way. This is actually true - I have seen a few GFS cycles over the past few days that have plunked some stranded dynamics into those geographical regions, and then immediately moted it off from the rest of the world. But it's been like at other times between D8 and D15 actually... The Nostradamus model sees something - what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 it's interesting to watch that origin as an outside slider of California, then gets eject through the western ridge through D4 and 5 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The GGEM at 180 isn't actually a bad agreement - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 heh, I don't think I've ever seen a snow event under 564dm heights - that's a pretty darn strange synoptic set up there. It's dopey to even consider - last 5 cycles have looked decidedly different each one - take your pick on a D9 chart and good luck If you want to see an ugly one, here's one from early Dec 2002 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1211.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1212.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow121102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The day 10 storm is the storm with that transient block I mentioned to watch down the road back on Tuesday or so. I mean it's in fantasy land, but because the flow gets cutoff, it's something to watch for either rain or snow. Usually nobody cares about 10 day outlooks and they shouldn't...but it's only brought up since the pattern will be otherwise boring. Still very well might be, but you know Sultan will have his tide charts and WV loops ready no matter what. I'm sure the euro is too robust, but kind of interesting that models are sniffing something out. The highest tide of the next 2 years, that is right 2 years is Maximum 12.37 feet at 2012-11-15 11:36 EST. we better hope this is just a fantasy map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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