weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Despite yesterday's torch, there is one pile from nearly a week ago hanging tough....about 1/2 block from wxniss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I'm glad I'm not the only one who is always out there looking for and noticing the weenie piles of snow where ever they may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Completely nonscientific but I feel like this is a real November for a change...hearing about sleet in Baltimore is pretty cool. Agreed wholeheartedly - some folks that are winter enthusiasts were taken back by the warmth of late, but it was classic Indian Summer fare. You get a couple hard frosts, a freeze or two, with crisp days, and even a snowfall, then ... you run at 70 for a day or 2. I see nothing unlike a 1,000 years of average Novembers in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Despite yesterday's torch, there is one pile from nearly a week ago hanging tough....about 1/2 block from wxniss. LOL! & Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 seems HM is spookin SNE by the latest solar flares and his comments Solar flux levels currently are the highest since June with a series of M class flares. Levels are approaching threshold of research papers which are considered "high" in terms of stratosphere and polar vortex effects. At this time we have not reached last year's peak. Forecasts suggest a general decline toward the end of the month / start of December but will the damage have been done? This is also the largest sunspot count since late June / early July but we possibly are exceeding that time frame making this the largest count since...gulp...last November. i asked if this was bullish for a + NAO down the road and he replied below As I said in the first post, flux levels are approaching max levels (defined by standard research to be around 145) but not quite there yet. You can have all the sunspot activity in the world but it's about how geoeffective and productive the sunspots are more than quantity. But, it does have me worried that we are capable of being as productive as last November. Just key an eye on the solar charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 This like it will clear out of here within the half hour. Temp only painfully dropping, hightly doubtful I'll see a flake quite possibly only rain. 37/36 Edit: it's done. All rain. Good luck further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Not only that, about 3 blocks from that renegade pile is a house with what looks like a noose hanging from a tree. Keeping all bases covered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Euro is 972, what a massive storm. Modeling getting deeper as we get closer, interesting. I am not sure where it is getting all that power from. The initial feed of dPVA into the baroclinic zone native to the interface of the eastern N/A continent with the west Atlantic is paltry - though there is a weakly close mid level vortex. Still, very little in the way of dPVA comes around the bottom of that closing feature to ignite a cyclone; than having that bona fide (notice how I used that as a verb - haha) its way on down to a potential tide incurring wrath of a wonder bomb? Though multi-cycle (and across multi-guidance) suggested, there still seems the more plausible solution - barring any unforeseen insertion of dynamics by the N stream: a system that maxes a bit early and then just sort of trundle slowly up the coast in a static intensity profile. That would be fine with me, actually, because it's climo-friendly. Frankly, getting a bit tired of where's the f climate waldo - perhaps unrest and histrionics are the new paradigm? Anyway, ... it would be possible that it could hybridize its self being situated over the high octane Gulf Stream - in which case the picture is even more complicated. It doesn't really appear that way now, in the runs - just sayin'. Also, it ends up down around 540DM at the closed mid level surface, again, seemingly getting there with no help of dynamic refit by the N-stream. Very interesting indeed. [Edit: hmm, actually ...there is a small impulse in the southern stream that comes into the backside, just before it goes from 952dm to the lower side of the 940's. That's also where goes through an interval that approaches bombogen characteristic. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Interesting article on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/13/opinion/safina-rebuild-sandy/index.html?hpt=hp_t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 seems HM is spookin SNE by the latest solar flares and his comments i asked if this was bullish for a + NAO down the road and he replied below Just some food for thought from BOX on sunspots. This goes back quite a few years so I am not sure of any newer scientific data. Enjoy. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/effects.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Sun's breaking out here in GC. Nice to have it cooled down. 37/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Warm day here. Up to 20c(68f) at lunch. Sunny and beautiful. Great day for the Christmas tree cutting that will be sent to Boston. Fine lookin spruce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 the gfs is really night and day from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Snow above 1500' here this morning. That coating is now gone, sunny, 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Sprinkle here and there, no big deal models did a great job of breaking that precip up, nice and raw out though, getting pumped for the Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 GEFS have a nice nao with the Aleutians ridge stout d10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Sprinkle here and there, no big deal models did a great job of breaking that precip up, nice and raw out though, getting pumped for the Holidays. Your avatar meets quite favorably with approval ratings ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 There is a SWFE look to the pattern as well, even with a weak east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It seems like the Canadian is programmed to take any eddy near the MA coast and turn it into a gale just east of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Warm day here. Up to 20c(68f) at lunch. Sunny and beautiful. Great day for the Christmas tree cutting that will be sent to Boston. Fine lookin spruce. i love this tradition... hit some downpours and gusty winds driving to plymouth...probably caught up to the front as i drove east...back home now and temps are in the mid 40s, started out in the mid 50's...passing showers...completely overcast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It seems like the Canadian is programmed to take any eddy near the MA coast and turn it into a gale just east of the Delmarva. Ah hahaha - man i was thinking something similar a minute ago - i was like, "powdered 'cane, just add water" never a dull moment with that model, a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 o -man, that GFS ens P009 member has a pleasy weezy with sugar on top solution around D11 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 euro op still has coastal next tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 euro op still has coastal next tues Yeah pretty good nor'easter, just too mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Low actually backs in from the east on the euro as well. Too bad this isn't January....although this upper level pattern probably would not happen during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah pretty good nor'easter, just too mild. also too far south as modeled on OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 euro op still has coastal next tues Seems strange that in Nov. the boundary layer has been mostly favorable while the upper levels are marginal. 1030 in ME on the prog while 850 torches. ZR verbatim? Plenty of time to work out the details but things look pretty lousy pattern-wise, at least in the short term. Don't like that big GOA low showing up either, but unlike last year I expect these to be transient once we hit mid-Dec, Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 also too far south as modeled on OP No, we get plenty of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 D10 euro is actually comical...it already fujiwara'd one s/w into the trough and now another potent one coming in from north of the lakes. If that verified we would be sitting under a ULL for like 4-5 days, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.