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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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Completely nonscientific but I feel like this is a real November for a change...hearing about sleet in Baltimore is pretty cool.

Agreed wholeheartedly - some folks that are winter enthusiasts were taken back by the warmth of late, but it was classic Indian Summer fare. You get a couple hard frosts, a freeze or two, with crisp days, and even a snowfall, then ... you run at 70 for a day or 2. I see nothing unlike a 1,000 years of average Novembers in that.

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seems HM is spookin SNE by the latest solar flares and his comments

Solar flux levels currently are the highest since June with a series of M class flares. Levels are approaching threshold of research papers which are considered "high" in terms of stratosphere and polar vortex effects. At this time we have not reached last year's peak. Forecasts suggest a general decline toward the end of the month / start of December but will the damage have been done?

This is also the largest sunspot count since late June / early July but we possibly are exceeding that time frame making this the largest count since...gulp...last November.

axesmiley.png

i asked if this was bullish for a + NAO down the road and he replied below

As I said in the first post, flux levels are approaching max levels (defined by standard research to be around 145) but not quite there yet. You can have all the sunspot activity in the world but it's about how geoeffective and productive the sunspots are more than quantity. But, it does have me worried that we are capable of being as productive as last November. Just key an eye on the solar charts.

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Euro is 972, what a massive storm. Modeling getting deeper as we get closer, interesting.

I am not sure where it is getting all that power from. The initial feed of dPVA into the baroclinic zone native to the interface of the eastern N/A continent with the west Atlantic is paltry - though there is a weakly close mid level vortex. Still, very little in the way of dPVA comes around the bottom of that closing feature to ignite a cyclone; than having that bona fide (notice how I used that as a verb - haha) its way on down to a potential tide incurring wrath of a wonder bomb?

Though multi-cycle (and across multi-guidance) suggested, there still seems the more plausible solution - barring any unforeseen insertion of dynamics by the N stream: a system that maxes a bit early and then just sort of trundle slowly up the coast in a static intensity profile. That would be fine with me, actually, because it's climo-friendly. Frankly, getting a bit tired of where's the f climate waldo - perhaps unrest and histrionics are the new paradigm?

Anyway, ... it would be possible that it could hybridize its self being situated over the high octane Gulf Stream - in which case the picture is even more complicated. It doesn't really appear that way now, in the runs - just sayin'. Also, it ends up down around 540DM at the closed mid level surface, again, seemingly getting there with no help of dynamic refit by the N-stream.

Very interesting indeed.

[Edit: hmm, actually ...there is a small impulse in the southern stream that comes into the backside, just before it goes from 952dm to the lower side of the 940's. That's also where goes through an interval that approaches bombogen characteristic. ]

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Warm day here. Up to 20c(68f) at lunch. Sunny and beautiful. Great day for the Christmas tree cutting that will be sent to Boston. Fine lookin spruce.

i love this tradition...

hit some downpours and gusty winds driving to plymouth...probably caught up to the front as i drove east...back home now and temps are in the mid 40s, started out in the mid 50's...passing showers...completely overcast...

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It seems like the Canadian is programmed to take any eddy near the MA coast and turn it into a gale just east of the Delmarva.

Ah hahaha - man i was thinking something similar a minute ago - i was like, "powdered 'cane, just add water"

never a dull moment with that model, a?

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euro op still has coastal next tues

Seems strange that in Nov. the boundary layer has been mostly favorable while the upper levels are marginal. 1030 in ME on the prog while 850 torches. ZR verbatim? Plenty of time to work out the details but things look pretty lousy pattern-wise, at least in the short term. Don't like that big GOA low showing up either, but unlike last year I expect these to be transient once we hit mid-Dec, Jan.

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