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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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this analfrontal precip is really holding together nicely, expect some catpaws here as temps are crashing and precip still to the west.

Sw Ct winter inbound.

Here is what he means by anafrontal....meaning post frontal. Anafrontal is basically overrunning precip above a shallow cold front. Notice the winds are WNW at the surface. But look just aloft at 850. Winds are SW. Because the trough slows down, we don't get the typical push of W-NW flow aloft, blowing this rain offshore.

post-33-0-03026400-1352813494_thumb.gif

post-33-0-46399300-1352813473_thumb.gif

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Scooter,what are thoughts on storm next week?

I suppose some wintry precip isn't impossible, but this airmass is going to be stale by the time it approaches...making it very tough to see much more than a cold rain. Unlike the last system that dropped snow, the airmass aloft seems a bit warmer. Maybe if this really goes to town, it can flash highest spots to snow, but it also drags warmer air in...so catch 22. You also have to get the storm close enough and it seems like it's a 60/40 shot for substantial impacts other than some lighter rains and gusty winds on the coast. I'm looking hard to see if I can sniff out the potential for wintry precip, but it is tough to find. I suppose the best shot are typical areas in NH and VT if it comes close enough. We are over a week out, so it's not as if the details are on the table.

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I suppose some wintry precip isn't impossible, but this airmass is going to be stale by the time it approaches...making it very tough to see much more than a cold rain. Unlike the last system that dropped snow, the airmass aloft seems a bit warmer. Maybe if this really goes to town, it can flash highest spots to snow, but it also drags warmer air in...so catch 22. You also have to get the storm close enough and it seems like it's a 60/40 shot for substantial impacts other than some lighter rains and gusty winds on the coast. I'm looking hard to see if I can sniff out the potential for wintry precip, but it is tough to find. I suppose the best shot are typical areas in NH and VT if it comes close enough. We are over a week out, so it's not as if the details are on the table.

The operational was west of the ensemble mean, correct?

Anyway, I want to see the day 10 pattern on the ECMWF ensembles become more amplified as we head into December. That way, you could develop a west based -NAO pattern. I was discouraged to see the mean more poleward with the Greenland / N. Atlantic low than the op day 8-10.

The good news is that the models are showing that wave 2 potential in the stratosphere.

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The operational was west of the ensemble mean, correct?

Anyway, I want to see the day 10 pattern on the ECMWF ensembles become more amplified as we head into December. That way, you could develop a west based -NAO pattern. I was discouraged to see the mean more poleward with the Greenland / N. Atlantic low than the op day 8-10.

The good news is that the models are showing that wave 2 potential in the stratosphere.

Yeah the operational run was actually rather wet here in SNE, but being so far out, it doesn't sway me as much as the mean would since it's pretty far out in operational la la land. It's also why the mean was further east, I think. The mean did have some probs for 0.1"-.25" QPF here..especially ern areas.

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lots of ip reports down around dca and bwi

Yeah--Jay posted he had some earlier.

im sure most of us will see some around here.. Im hoping to see something I was in Albany last week and missed out on all the snow!! I saw maybe 10 flakes axesmiley.png

You would have missed out on it here in Mass if you had driven north 40 miles as well. Me ftl.

38/36, rn-

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