CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Chronicle (yes I am old) did a nice piece on the towns in NE CT. Brooklyn, Putnam, Woodstock...all neat places with shops and restaurants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah it's looking hopeful anyways, for long range guidance to agree is always nice. We can all be a little more optimistic when we get inside the d10 threshold, but sounds like the KFS is already gung ho. That's why you're here to lay down the compensating caution flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 When you look at the previous list, how often would you have 4 December's in a row like that. Not very often...lol. Yeah definitely not very common. The only other time on record BOS has had 4 consecutive double digit snowfall Decembers is 1901-1904, and the totals were way less impressive than the 2007-2010 streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Pretty average next week up here. After tomorrow you could pretty much throw up the forecast for one day (low 40s for highs, upper 20s for lows) and be right for pretty much a week straight. A little early but hopefully if there is a storm it holds off until Wednesday or is done by Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 KFS FTW. You're 1/1 so far this winter, so why not. It's actually been on fire in the last year. Nailing Snowtober, Morch 2012, Sandy and 11/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's actually been on fire in the last year. Nailing Snowtober, Morch 2012, Sandy and 11/7. As long as we forget about all the busted heat waves that hit the M.A. and only fringed SNE in the summer and the multiple lines of severe wx that never materialized, he has been perfect all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 That's why you're here to lay down the compensating caution flags. Those are usually because I know how the cycle goes. Weenies get excited for a pattern change that always gets pushed back. But, when mutliple models agree something is in the cards, then that is usually a time to take it more seriously. Next step would be to get this inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Those are usually because I know how the cycle goes. Weenies get excited for a pattern change that always gets pushed back. But, when mutliple models agree something is in the cards, then that is usually a time to take it more seriously. Next step would be to get this inside 10 days. Yeah and the Miller A forecasted on the 10+ day that never comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 As long as we forget about all the busted heat waves that hit the M.A. and only fringed SNE in the summer and the multiple lines of severe wx that never materialized, he has been perfect all year. Here's a good reason that Nate is a bit scared and we're a bit meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's actually been on fire in the last year. Nailing Snowtober, Morch 2012, Sandy and 11/7. You mean Athena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 You mean Athena? Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Stop Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 As long as we forget about all the busted heat waves that hit the M.A. and only fringed SNE in the summer and the multiple lines of severe wx that never materialized, he has been perfect all year. Well, I didn't know about all that. But you have to give him some credit for taking a definitive stance and sticking to it, even if there is no meteorology behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 You mean Athena? :| If they keep naming storms that impact 10 people in Nowheresville, North Dakota, they'll be on the Greek alphabet by January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Well, I didn't know about all that. But you have to give him some credit for taking a definitive stance and sticking to it, even if there is no meteorology behind it. LOL, funny how that works. Nobody ever remembers the busts, just the two wild predictions that come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 LOL, funny how that works. Nobody ever remembers the busts, just the two wild predictions that come true. Lol, eh, I mean I think it's more a function of not paying as much attention in the generally boring mundane summer months. I do know the KFS has a warm bias though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 LOL, funny how that works. Nobody ever remembers the busts, just the two wild predictions that come true. I call it the JMA Effect. After every epic winter storm, people always say "The JMA nailed it!!!"...well of course it did, because it shows an epic storm all the time, so every time one actually happens, it "nails" it. Its just that it has about 25 busts in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Lots if winter coming this year. People panicking due to a few warm days is kind of pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Week 3 and 4 of the weeklies look decent, especially week 4 with low anomalies south of SNE and a -NAO. There is still a PAC jet plowing into central Canada, but also a nice Aleutian ridge. Would weeks 3&4 be the first and second weeks of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Would weeks 3&4 be the first and second weeks of December? I think it's the 12th of Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Would weeks 3&4 be the first and second weeks of December? Not to worry, your dry streak since 2008 will stay intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Not to worry, your dry streak since 2008 will stay intact. Yeah my area is WAY overdue for a big snowstorm. Haven't had one since since March 2008! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 GEFS is actually agreeing with it pretty closely too...so that is probably a good sign. That combined with the weeklies is probably some more cause for optimism heading into early December. Verbatim the ensembles say we could have fun at the end of November but often these shifts in pattern are rushed a bit. The statement is certainly correct in principle as we note love and hate in the art the model(s) war against the weather ... But, as I was saying ...to that other Met the other day, I don't think we've seen a "pattern change" per se. I don't think the pattern has really changed since Sandy for that matter - it's merely relaxed. We are waiting on a reload in my very best estimation, and when that is the case, whole regions can wake up and smell coffee with a jolt back in a good bit of rapidity. The reason I say that is because the EPO has only labored to neutral, and probably stays there only for a couple of days and falls - that's probably why these ridge signals are showing up now in the area. Meanwhile, way across the Pac, the -WPO is raging ...ceaselessly with no end in site. That's continuously transmitting the AB NP phase downstream and has been the whole while. These teleconnectors have a transitive correlation with -NAO (when lag is applied), and since they haven't really gone away, it argues that the baseline characteristic of the flow really hasn't changed much. Albeit merely less amplified, perhaps giving the illusion of one. In smaller words, it can flip around cold and stormy in a hurry - I don't see a big huge temporal wind up required in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Is the JMA more accurate at forecasting for Japan than it is for the US east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah my area is WAY overdue for a big snowstorm. Haven't had one since since March 2008! Which is pretty clear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Thanks for the input. Yeah, I wanted to give this to you earlier but ...heh, at work I probably shouldn't be lingering on the web too much CPC has great tabular data going back decades: http://www.cpc.ncep....v/data/indices/ You should check it out and then edifice your self with papers that show how/why the correlation exists. This URL provides a reasonably good primer: http://www.ugamp.ner...hot/ajh/qbo.htm (Note: 4) Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO, Holton and Tan (1980).) In short, the warming stratospheric altitudes of the internal domain of the PV limits the vertical mixing depths at high latitudes. Therefore, storm system's terminating WAA into mid and upper levels traps this air and you get mid and upper tropospheric blocks (ridges) that form. This causes the flow to become less zonal, and meridional in nature. The cold arrives, often increased cyclone frequencies along favored areas, as well. My personal winter outlook features a warm burster in around the first of the year. The AO can be negative prior to this occurring, it just that once any SSW takes place, you can add a huge probability for -AO to take place. Also, note, the SSW has to be a downward welling propagator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 LOL, funny how that works. Nobody ever remembers the busts, just the two wild predictions that come true. Classic anti extreme bust was the March 2010 St Paddys high wind 4-6 inch rain event. He downplayed it as Meh even as trees were dropping on LI. and the area rivers overflowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Lots if winter coming this year. People panicking due to a few warm days is kind of pathetic. I was thinking the same thing today. Looking great Jerry, said it last night, the pattern upcoming TDAy on looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 toronto blizzard is the clear WOTY winner, should not even be a question this year. I mean its almost like he has a programmed post for Scott at the same time every day, asking about if the EC ensembles and weeklies look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 toronto blizzard is the clear WOTY winner, should not even be a question this year. I mean its almost like he has a programmed post for Scott at the same time every day, asking about if the EC ensembles and weeklies look better. I thought trapperman had that locked down with nails in the coffin, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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