Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...k-for-2012.html Good solid effort - best of luck with the outlook. Though I'm sure you'd rather understand the "art" of the global circulation system before anything else Anyway, I would also consider the easterly phase of the QBO, and the known correlation between it and the advent of Sudden Strat. Warming events. These will often influence the AO atmospheric teleconnector - which is a measure of the degree in which the westerlies "pancake" in latitude - heralding in cold anomalies toward the mid latitudes. -AO = brrrr, +AO = Kevin going, "ah, fu - schiiit" One thing that is interesting to me is like what took place in 2010-2011... We had a predominantly -AO/-NAO winter but there really were any SSWs... SSWs are just one way, however, to encourage a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This is going to be torturously slow temp drop. At least we're not waiting for a phase change like we were one early storm last season. I want to kiss these 50's goodbye for a few months. Could happen after today, but I won't be suprised if we sneak a another couple more and perhaps a horrific day in February with warmth and fog. Nightmare--makes me shudder. I bet you'll see 50+ again before Spring. Even ORH averages 7 days of 50+, and 1 day of 60+ in met. winter. Looks like only twice in ORH's long history has there been a winter of not hitting 50 at least once: 1904-05 and 1956-57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I bet you'll see 50+ again before Spring. Even ORH averages 7 days of 50+, and 1 day of 60+ in met. winter. Looks like only twice in ORH's long history has there been a winter of not hitting 50 at least once: 1904-05 and 1956-57. Yeah, 1993-1994 was a dern cold winter most places, but a cutter drove the temp and dp to 60 one night in early February. it only takes one cutter to taint the barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 There isn't really any big sign for an epic December right now (even though Kevin insists on it), but I don't see a big torch sign either...despite torontoblizzard's worry with no reason given. A poleward Aleutian ridge will probably produce a decent setup for us, but we walk a fine line if the Atlantic remains unfavorable. Yeah but the other side of that fine line... ever heard of MacFarland? That's basically a strong Alaska ridge combined with a powerful PV in southern Greenland, and results in gigantic cold snaps... a reverse of this pattern happened at the end of last winter, forcing major cold into Europe. Also, some good news for January -- the stratospheric vortex is already trying to split... it will likely be unsuccessful, but that can't be a bad thing if you want a weak vortex. And he is absolutely right. They are Nazis with their data and charge you your first born to get it. $250,000 per year x 18 years = $3,500,000... now we know what he/she will be worth Also, snow cover is beautiful right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Week 3 and 4 of the weeklies look decent, especially week 4 with low anomalies south of SNE and a -NAO. There is still a PAC jet plowing into central Canada, but also a nice Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This looks interesting: 0C 850 line looks to straddle the South Coast. 0C 2m line is well north in Central Quebec but we all know how accurate that is in the long range with dynamic and evaporational cooling. High pressure is holding strong even though it's a relatively mild high pressure. Looks like a raw day immediately along the coast with some chance for snow inland. I still think this one is going to be rain, but the 18z GFS definitely has a colder look at the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 $250,000 per year x 18 years = $3,500,000... now we know what he/she will be worth Is that really what they charge for access to their data?! 250K per year? Or is that like the corporate price for large operations? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 This looks interesting: 0C 850 line looks to straddle the South Coast. 0C 2m line is well north in Central Quebec but we all know how accurate that is in the long range with dynamic and evaporational cooling. High pressure is holding strong even though it's a relatively mild high pressure. Looks like a raw day immediately along the coast with some chance for snow inland. I still think this one is going to be rain, but the 18z GFS definitely has a colder look at the storm. Lock it. No qpf for me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This looks interesting: 0C 850 line looks to straddle the South Coast. 0C 2m line is well north in Central Quebec but we all know how accurate that is in the long range with dynamic and evaporational cooling. High pressure is holding strong even though it's a relatively mild high pressure. Looks like a raw day immediately along the coast with some chance for snow inland. I still think this one is going to be rain, but the 18z GFS definitely has a colder look at the storm. Yeah it's a coldish run overall with a stem-wound snowy nor'easter toward the la-la range. It seems when the westerlies temporarily slip N, we aren't replacing it with much sub-tropical ridging. The result of that is vorticity shrapnel left over in the flow gangs up on the baroclincity over the western Atlantic, you got this slow moving coastal. The idea of colder air in there is a wedge job. There are a couple episodes of confluence in NE Ontario and that is helping a +PP N to then nose down. It's an interesting way to insert a cool pattern into a warmer appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Good solid effort - best of luck with the outlook. Though I'm sure you'd rather understand the "art" of the global circulation system before anything else Anyway, I would also consider the easterly phase of the QBO, and the known correlation between it and the advent of Sudden Strat. Warming events. These will often influence the AO atmospheric teleconnector - which is a measure of the degree in which the westerlies "pancake" in latitude - heralding in cold anomalies toward the mid latitudes. -AO = brrrr, +AO = Kevin going, "ah, fu - schiiit" One thing that is interesting to me is like what took place in 2010-2011... We had a predominantly -AO/-NAO winter but there really were any SSWs... SSWs are just one way, however, to encourage a -AO. Thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I'd take 45-60. Good luck with the calls. Thanks ....time will tell....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Hey Tornado Girl...why don't you start a new thread with your forecast. Mods can keep it in a forecast folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Pete in the bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah pieces are falling into place a wintry week next week as we carve the Turkey and enjoy a mid winter's scene outdoors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Pete in the bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 All long range signs are pointing to a December to remember..A Currier and Ives type of month is upcoming..and it kicks off with a bang next week. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 All long range signs are pointing to a December to remember..A Currier and Ives type of month is upcoming..and it kicks off with a bang next week.Enjoy Berl Ives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The ECMWF ensembles are hinting at a -NAO for the first time in the long range which is teleconnected nicely to a bit of WC ridging despite the continued GOA low. Pretty decent cross-polar flow trying to get established north of the Bering Straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah pieces are falling into place a wintry week next week as we carve the Turkey and enjoy a mid winter's scene outdoors KFS FTW. You're 1/1 so far this winter, so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 KFS FTW. You're 1/1 so far this winter, so why not. Sometimes even the DGEX is right for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 60/58 Sultry and damp////////////I asked last night about how much snow for Tday storm, looks like its a white Thanksgiving, can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The ECMWF ensembles are hinting at a -NAO for the first time in the long range which is teleconnected nicely to a bit of WC ridging despite the continued GOA low. Pretty decent cross-polar flow trying to get established north of the Bering Straight. They've been off and on with that, now on. The one way if oriented right we can pop a little ridge. The poor arctic ice mongers will not be happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 They've been off and on with that, now on. The one way if oriented right we can pop a little ridge. The poor arctic ice mongers will not be happy though. GEFS is actually agreeing with it pretty closely too...so that is probably a good sign. That combined with the weeklies is probably some more cause for optimism heading into early December. Verbatim the ensembles say we could have fun at the end of November but often these shifts in pattern are rushed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 KFS is gonna rock you It will be nice to open up the cross polar floodgates sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 GEFS is actually agreeing with it pretty closely too...so that is probably a good sign. That combined with the weeklies is probably some more cause for optimism heading into early December. Verbatim the ensembles say we could have fun at the end of November but often these shifts in pattern are rushed a bit. Yeah it's looking hopeful anyways, for long range guidance to agree is always nice. We can all be a little more optimistic when we get inside the d10 threshold, but sounds like the KFS is already gung ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 After last week I'm a believer! Think it might be a wild winter of swings and extremes but compared to last year, night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 KFS analog packages from 12z show Dec '07,'08,'09, and '10 as a blend. Amazing. 250% of Dec snowfall for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 KFS analog packages from 12z show Dec '07,'08,'09, and '10 as a blend. Amazing. 250% of Dec snowfall for all. They also had December 1995, 1992, 1970, and 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 They also had December 1995, 1992, 1970, and 1961. When you look at the previous list, how often would you have 4 December's in a row like that. Not very often...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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