moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 not even close! your an hour or more further from boston then him I would imagine so! He's over 2.5 hours from me, of course he'd be on different roads to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nate's fine tuning the noose..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Excellent post, lol....Mowvember, well played. Highly agree. The only thing missing was a reference to sandals and socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nate's fine tuning the noose..... Disaster in Dobbs Ferry 2012-2013: From Tube Socks to Nooses by NZucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 euro ensembles are bringing in the cold at the end of the run today. It has a shadow of a reflection of a +PNA and -NAO on this run alongside the -WPO ridge and GOA trough... id say this is a trend towards the gefs which also trended more in that direction at 12z today. I'm not sure if this is too early or not, i was kind of thinking more 1st week of december, but the weeklies did hint at this for the time frame. It looks like the runs yesterday which were more bullish. I was also thinking more beginning of December as a safer bet too, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Cotton can be a strong material, but Nate only weighs 98lbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It looks like the runs yesterday which were more bullish. I was also thinking more beginning of December as a safer bet too, but we'll see. True. I havent checked the spaghetti's but I get the feeling that its probably a mess of disagreement outside of the WPO/goa trough signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 True. I havent checked the spaghetti's but I get the feeling that its probably a mess of disagreement outside of the WPO/goa trough signal. It's probably the wax and wane we sometimes see when something is cooking. You know, those runs where the cold is brought in, only to have it warm a bit 12hrs later....then rinse and repeat. Thats why I figured maybe early December is a safer bet, but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Hot hot hot.. From Gibbs!! Heading to 2010 like dec with way less nao. All that mid-atl snow wagons north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 not even close! your an hour or more further from boston then him It's about 2.5 to 3 hours depending on traffic...all interstate (89 to 93). Boston is closer than Springfield, so I wasn't sure. I can get to Boston quicker living up here than I could when I lived in Albany, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This is also dependent on the Atlantic as Will and others have said. That is something that may not cooperate for a while so its possible we walk the line. We just don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Hot hot hot.. From Gibbs!! Heading to 2010 like dec with way less nao. All that mid-atl snow wagons north! You bother that guy way too much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 He texts me everyday. Usually initiates it. Ask Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I would imagine so! He's over 2.5 hours from me, of course he'd be on different roads to Boston. 89 to 93 all highway right into Boston. Very easy from here. Most folks who come up says it takes them about 3 hours and I wasn't sure what type of roads you'd take. If you had to go down 91 to the Pike then over it might take you 2.5 hours or more no? I'm assuming you use RT 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 89 to 93 all highway right into Boston. Very easy from here. Most folks who come up says it takes them about 3 hours and I wasn't sure what type of roads you'd take. If you had to go down 91 to the Pike then over it might take you 2.5 hours or more no? I'm assuming you use RT 2? Yup. Old reliable. It sucks if your stuck behind a truck. But, once it turns to highway in Athol/Orange, it's a pretty nice trip. Until 495. 55/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 89 to 93 all highway right into Boston. Very easy from here. Most folks who come up says it takes them about 3 hours and I wasn't sure what type of roads you'd take. If you had to go down 91 to the Pike then over it might take you 2.5 hours or more no? I'm assuming you use RT 2? MPM's area is a disaster to get to from out east. Rt 2 is awful and the pike is way south. I can get to BOS in 45 min from ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-official-winter-outlook-for-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I have to say the most epic meltdown ever by a pro met was Wills .1 degree away from a 2 footer in 2010. Unexpected during an overnight discussion. He was so pissed. Got to find some snippets from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Wills meltdown against the people at ECMWF was the best. He lost it on them in a several post barrage knowing the read the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-official-winter-outlook-for-2012.html I'd take 45-60. Good luck with the calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Wills meltdown against the people at ECMWF was the best. He lost it on them in a several post barrage knowing the read the board. And he is absolutely right. They are Nazis with their data and charge you your first born to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Wills meltdown against the people at ECMWF was the best. He lost it on them in a several post barrage knowing the read the board. I don't think they followed us to americanwx...they were swarming all over the place back on eastern like little sick weasels waiting for someone to post pay maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I don't think they followed us to americanwx...they were swarming all over the place back on eastern like little sick weasels waiting for someone to post pay maps. They probably hate me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It's probably the wax and wane we sometimes see when something is cooking. You know, those runs where the cold is brought in, only to have it warm a bit 12hrs later....then rinse and repeat. Thats why I figured maybe early December is a safer bet, but that's just a guess. the old 12z/00z shuffle. I also take this as more of the first signal for the cold period in early Dec that many were discussing last week, probably induced by an MJO progression into the favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Lol I'd love to see those old posts from Will. I remember laughing for hours about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-official-winter-outlook-for-2012.html Nice writeup, seems to be a common theme of a colder stormer second half, now if we get Dec to cooperate it could turn out to be real decent. I disagree on one aspect. Cold is over performing and lasting longer than warmth and I expect with the large global snowcover rapidly built up this will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...k-for-2012.html Good stuff. I just completed a research presentation for my ATM 4030 Physical Climotology class for the upcoming winter. We analyzed ENSO and the PNA in our section, and basically agree with your thoughts. We are due for a transition to a positive PNA, and with a weak to moderate El Nino, it has been shown that there is significant correlation to colder temperatures in the southeastern US, with equal chances or slightly below normal in the northeastern US due to the more amplified pattern and storm track farther east around the base of the anomalous eastern US trough. We made a bunch of composite plots with PNA vs temperature, MSLP, 500mb data for the CONUS, too. Awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...k-for-2012.html Took a quick read--will spend more time on it later. Hopefully we can get those coastals to take some closer approaches. They'll make Kevin and other easterners swing from the rafters. But, I'll burst if I get several shutouts like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Disaster in Dobbs Ferry 2012-2013: From Tube Socks to Nooses by NZucker I actually don't think the winter is going to be that horrible, especially compared to the disaster last year, but the global signals have been a little discouraging lately. The cold stratosphere is a little shocking considering how high snow cover is. NAO blocking seems to be fading. However, we're talking about a warm-neutral winter bordering on weak El Niño, and those can certainly be productive. I think what's going to happen as December starts is the Aleutian ridge is going to amplify, bringing cold air to the northern tier. It wouldn't surprise me if the month starts with a gradient pattern like 07-08. The Aleutian ridge is showing up on all models, but it's a little too far west, and too suppressed, to benefit us. That should change. Hopefully that can kick off a round of stratospheric warming over Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 This is going to be torturously slow temp drop. At least we're not waiting for a phase change like we were one early storm last season. I want to kiss these 50's goodbye for a few months. Could happen after today, but I won't be suprised if we sneak a another couple more and perhaps a horrific day in February with warmth and fog. Nightmare--makes me shudder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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