Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Sockswithsandels used to be able to interpret a map. Lately sock less How are you interpreting that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It may or may not reach us. Ensembles have kept it from reaching us and squash it south. Given it's 240 hours out just for that cutoff pattern depicted, speculating even further beyond that is all pretty fruitless. The whole global pattern doesn't look very encouraging though right now....dying Nino, cold stratosphere, declining PDO. Definitely starting to look as if we're up against the odds with the models also showing a strong GoA low and +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 How are you interpreting that map? Cold and snowy as always from Oct 1 through March 1.... then that same map goes to warm, humid and sunny from March 2 through September 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 All of these were pretty much shattered today. 70F outside right now at 800ft and 56F at 4,000ft. .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 12TH: BURLINGTON - 66 IN 1982 MONTPELIER - 62 IN 1982 ST. JOHNSBURY - 65 IN 1911 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It may or may not reach us. Ensembles have kept it from reaching us and squash it south. Given it's 240 hours out just for that cutoff pattern depicted, speculating even further beyond that is all pretty fruitless using an OP run. You sound to be holding out some hope for a bit more wintery appeal going forward, that's always good to hear. I'm sort of "blah" about the pattern going forward...was talking with a WFO BTV forecaster I ran into on the slopes today and both of us agree it just looks incredibly boring going forward with low precip chances and near average temps in the 40s daytime and 20s at night. Hard to stay interested right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 The whole global pattern doesn't look very encouraging though right now....dying Nino, cold stratosphere, declining PDO. Definitely starting to look as if we're up against the odds with the models also showing a strong GoA low and +NAO. I'll give it more time. There's positives too: 1. The Nino (however weak) has been west based the last 6 weeks. 2. No sign of the permanent AK/Bering sea vortex returning 3. NAO has been negative on weeklies later this month into December 4. Warming has re-commenced in western Siberia and has begin to push eastward. The ECMWF seasonal had the NAO positive which is a minus...but something we've dealt with plenty of times as long as the north PAC is reasonable. A +NAO is definitely a larger problem the further south you go. The NAO is one of the worst indices to forecast for the models though, so as of now, I wouldn't sweat it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Will, do you have a map of stratospheric anomalies showing that warming you're talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 You sound to be holding out some hope for a bit more wintery appeal going forward, that's always good to hear. I'm sort of "blah" about the pattern going forward...was talking with a WFO BTV forecaster I ran into on the slopes today and both of us agree it just looks incredibly boring going forward with low precip chances and near average temps in the 40s daytime and 20s at night. Hard to stay interested right now, lol. It looks pretty boring to me too over the next couple weeks outside of the low chance for that Nor' Easter to have a big impact. I just don't see a big torch after today though. Seasonably cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 You sound to be holding out some hope for a bit more wintery appeal going forward, that's always good to hear. I'm sort of "blah" about the pattern going forward...was talking with a WFO BTV forecaster I ran into on the slopes today and both of us agree it just looks incredibly boring going forward with low precip chances and near average temps in the 40s daytime and 20s at night. Hard to stay interested right now, lol. If you ignore the massive nor'easter hitting us next week sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Will, do you have a map of stratospheric anomalies showing that warming you're talking about? They were confined to Europe a few days ago, but now clearly pushing eastward into Siberia. E Siberia is still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Will, do you have a map of stratospheric anomalies showing that warming you're talking about? http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 They were confined to Europe a few days ago, but now clearly pushing eastward into Siberia. E Siberia is still cold. That still looks like a +AO stratosphere with warmer anomalies towards Greenland and colder anomalies in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This is slightly interesting but still out there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 If you compare forecast hr 00 at 70mb since Skier found that to be the useful level, to hr 240...it is definitely trying to deform the vortex. Granted it is still sort of intact, it may or may not try to shift in December. I agree that it's cold looking now, but maybe this sort of punch in the gut its taking, will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 All of these were pretty much shattered today. 70F outside right now at 800ft and 56F at 4,000ft. .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 12TH: BURLINGTON - 66 IN 1982 MONTPELIER - 62 IN 1982 ST. JOHNSBURY - 65 IN 1911 Managed 58.3 a little before noon. Currently, back down to 57.3/51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah but I still had 6-7 inches that day when people in all 4 directions had snow while I was ripping pock marks off the scalp. So I took some solace in that. That day when I got home and saw your posts and pictures of you in your Mighty Mac winter coat and Megan prancing and dancing thru the woods in deep snow I just snapped. I can remember that like it was yesterday. I completely lost it. I was so irate, lol this thread is great, total spit on keyboard material and why many of us lurkers love these threads....carry on boys. Good to see Will back and Jerry fired up !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah one thing I take out of the stratosphere going forward is that the vortex is at least taking some shots and getting displaced from directly over the pole. Even if its on the cold/stronger side at 10 mb, this year is a hell of a lot better than last year at this time in my opinion. and while it certainly doesnt look like moving into december 2009, lets be honest, few years ever look like that. This doesnt mean we will see a raging +AO, but it doesnt mean we are locking in a huge prolonged -AO in december either at the moment. We dont need the latter to have some fun in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I'm not going somewhere where the average human is toothless by 60. GC has the advantage of plenty of snow, like minded politics, easy access to urban centers, and no state tax on fed pensions or ss. That's like getting a 6% boost in pocket change. GC has easy access to urban centers? I can be in BOS in about the same amount of time as MPM, if not sooner. I can be in Montreal in like 90 minutes, too. BTV and all it's wonders are 45 min away. I really believe the Berks have a good bit of areas that are more rural than up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I am exicited to see how ECMWF plays out over the next few days... could be a messy Thanksgiving. Who wants MORE SNOW? I sure do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It looks pretty boring to me too over the next couple weeks outside of the low chance for that Nor' Easter to have a big impact. I just don't see a big torch after today though. Seasonably cool. Yeah agreed...luckily we are done with the torch stuff. And with averages generally ranging from 45-50F with lows 25-30, seasonable looks like a good bet. But this time period is like spring in that it usually is boring for a few weeks in these bookend seasons. If you ignore the massive nor'easter hitting us next week sure LOL...sure thing Mayor of Fantasy Land. Looks like a low chance deal at best and given that it's Monday and you are referencing something next week, yes it looks pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Hope those who love the warm season torches are enjoying today. Get out and make it your best ever. Whip out the jarts one last time and walk barefoot through the green grass. Even if we finish below normal this month we will never forget this gorgeous Mowvember day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I am exicited to see how ECMWF plays out over the next few days... could be a messy Thanksgiving. Who wants MORE SNOW? I sure do. Yeah looks like a potentially travel disrupting snowstorm for us early- mid next week. Nothing like a long duration snow event leading us to a white holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 euro ensembles are bringing in the cold at the end of the run today. It has a shadow of a reflection of a +PNA and -NAO on this run alongside the -WPO ridge and GOA trough... id say this is a trend towards the gefs which also trended more in that direction at 12z today. I'm not sure if this is too early or not, i was kind of thinking more 1st week of december, but the weeklies did hint at this for the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 I'm not going somewhere where the average human is toothless by 60. GC has the advantage of plenty of snow, like minded politics, easy access to urban centers, and no state tax on fed pensions or ss. That's like getting a 6% boost in pocket change. hmmmmmmmmmmm GC has easy access to urban centers? I can be in BOS in about the same amount of time as MPM, if not sooner. I can be in Montreal in like 90 minutes, too. BTV and all it's wonders are 45 min away. I really believe the Berks have a good bit of areas that are more rural than up here. I guess Northampton and Greenfield don't quite match Montreal. 56/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Hope those who love the warm season torches are enjoying today. Get out and make it your best ever. Whip out the jarts one last time and walk barefoot through the green grass. Even if we finish below normal this month we will never forget this gorgeous Mowvember day. Excellent post, lol....Mowvember, well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 hmmmmmmmmmmm I guess Northampton and Greenfield don't quite match Montreal. 56/51 Out of curiousity how long to Boston for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 And yes I would much rather have rain and 37 then sun and 60 on Tday, warm holidays are just the absolute worst.......disgusting. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Scheduling three home showings for this weekend in New Ipswich. One place at 1350' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 not even close! your an hour or more further from boston then him GC has easy access to urban centers? I can be in BOS in about the same amount of time as MPM, if not sooner. I can be in Montreal in like 90 minutes, too. BTV and all it's wonders are 45 min away. I really believe the Berks have a good bit of areas that are more rural than up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Out of curiousity how long to Boston for you? If there's no traffic, it's a little over two hours. Of course, once you get inside of 495 it's a good bet for traffic, and once to Concord, it's almost assured! Every time I get stuck in it, I bask in the comfort that I don't have to do it every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.