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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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There isn't really any big sign for an epic December right now (even though Kevin insists on it), but I don't see a big torch sign either...despite torontoblizzard's worry with no reason given.

A poleward Aleutian ridge will probably produce a decent setup for us, but we walk a fine line if the Atlantic remains unfavorable.

On the plus side, there is no really disasterous indication right now... although I think last year, people did not really think the Vortex of Doom would live so long

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On the plus side, there is no really disasterous indication right now... although I think last year, people did not really think the Vortex of Doom would live so long

At this point last year, we were hoping the vortex would go away by mid-December...but we definitely had a sick feeling in our stomachs when we saw those consecutive Euro weekly runs in early to mid November switch to showing that ridiculous vortex just sitting there for 3-4 weeks. At least there is no sign of that this year, but it doesn't mean we are all systems go either.

What we need to happen in the next 10-15 days is to see signs of the Aleutian ridge continuing to build poleward into the EPO region like we saw happen in late Nov/early Dec 2007 and also in 2010. Right now (as in the next 10 days) it's still a little too suppressed for my liking and because of this, the cross-polar flow is limited and the GOA vortex takes on more influence shooting the firehose into S Canada. When the Aleutian ridge builds more poleward, it will tend to cause more of a split flow there...you still get a GOA low still sitting there but going over the top of the low on split flow is the cold air which comes down the east side. This is why in setups like December 2007 or 1970 or winter 1968-1969 we can have a GOA low but still be cold and snowy.

A -NAO really can help out too but it is not essential...just makes it easier.

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Wasn't it Cold Miser that did that joke photo about getting sucked into a snowblower?

I've got an idea with a chairlift, scarf, and dummy....

You mean this?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32346-tragic-day-for-the-cold-miser-family/

Man, I hope you don't have a situation where you have to resort to that.

axesmiley.png

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i'm sure there are places in w'ma that average about 100 inches....but most in the boonies..peru/savoy standout. There are alot of elevated areas in the berks that average better than North conway area (80 inches) and prolly very close to par with 100-110 at 1k in glen,,bartlett, area.. once you get up to the extreme N new hampshire area is when i think snowfall is over 150 inches-200 inches. (first conn lake)

For Real snowfall in new england besides pittsburgh,nh area or NW maine boonies, i think some upslope areas of N greens could deliver 200+ (at say 1500 and up in select scatter'd areas N of 89).

I'm not going somewhere where the average human is toothless by 60. GC has the advantage of plenty of snow, like minded politics, easy access to urban centers, and no state tax on fed pensions or ss. That's like getting a 6% boost in pocket change.

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If we torch we torch, if we snow we snow....weather will do what it wants to do so no use worrying.

We have a lot of people worrying...Powderfreak is in the verge of pulling a Tip on Boxing Day 2010, torontoblizzard is tying the noose as we speak....Kevin is pretending it will be an epic December but is quietly nervous and MPM has already set up the gallows in his barn after the last event deprived him of QPF.

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We have a lot of people worrying...Powderfreak is in the verge of pulling a Tip on Boxing Day 2010, torontoblizzard is tying the noose as we speak....Kevin is pretending it will be an epic December but is quietly nervous and MPM has already set up the gallows in his barn after the last event deprived him of QPF.

:lmao:

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We have a lot of people worrying...Powderfreak is in the verge of pulling a Tip on Boxing Day 2010, torontoblizzard is tying the noose as we speak....Kevin is pretending it will be an epic December but is quietly nervous and MPM has already set up the gallows in his barn after the last event deprived him of QPF.

LOL, gallows.

I guess the weeklies will be highly anticipated this evening.

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There's been 3 years constantly showing up in the D10+ ensemble CPC analogs the last couple days....1966, 2006, and 2010....2 of those 3 we would be fine with, one of them not and we know which one that is. But that shows you how this pattern can evolve slightly differently and produce massively different results.

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I'm not worrying. I'm expecting it so I don't have meltdown. It just seems like the outlook you're giving based on the euro ensembles is not something to be that positive about

Well what do you want...a -NAO with a +PNA? That is not an easy combo to get, otherwise I would average 60". The whole global circulation is still Nina like, but slowly improving. Tropical convection is a little misleading with two areas going good right now, one in the IO and the other west of the dateline. So no, it isn't perfect, but several of us spoke about the poleward Aleutian ridge. If that continues in December, then I'll take

my chances with that....even if the Atlantic sucks. You have every right to tie the noose if the big AK vortex returns, but I don't see an obvious reason why it will.

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