Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Seems a pretty strong signal as Will said for a raw rainy week next week with strong East Northeast inflow. I wonder if interior Northern locales might in looking at a glazing event though. strong high with colder low dewpoint air up there. Something to watch, looks like the rest of us are toast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah I think it will be nearly impossible to wipe out the negative departures at most stations. BDR for instance had a pretty weak +5 yesterday and is still like -4.5 on the month...today will be more impressive but then we cool back down...there will even probably be some slight negative departures on a few days later this week. We would need a big torch somewhere between next week and the week after to get positive on the month IMHO, and I just can't see it right now. Yeah NYC was +8 yesterday, i was kind of surprised bdr was not higher. This was a very impressive cold shot for early november. NYC had 4 days straight of double digit departures. When was the last time that happen? Orh not getting out of the 30's for two straight days in early november, one of which was below frz.....impressive.....It was such a great change of pace, althought it was very poor timing after sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I thought you were saying yesterday that they were looking good to end the month Yeah possibly when heading into December. November is a snoozer aside from Kevin's 12-18 next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 With the GOA low, it will be tough getting big time cold in here. We'll have to wait until that eases, but the whole idea is that Aleutian ridge and climo slowly allowing the cold to ooze in here. As we stated yesterday, that whole pattern slowly gets "better" but zonal flow from the Canadian Rockies is not ideal at the moment. It probably will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Had my 3 yr old projectile vomit in a restaurant Saturday night. Good times. I fear diaper blowouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 With the GOA low, it will be tough getting big time cold in here. We'll have to wait until that eases, but the whole idea is that Aleutian ridge and climo slowly allowing the cold to ooze in here. As we stated yesterday, that whole pattern slowly gets "better" but zonal flow from the Canadian Rockies is not ideal at the moment. It probably will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 If you recall models had last weeks snowstorm a raw cold rainy nor'easter and we trended it colder each day. Will even made a post about highs 36-42 with rain. I think we can expect the same to happen as we approach next weeks storm with that cold low dew high up in Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Deja by? Same thing we were looking at last week @RaleighWx: Although, New England could see some snow if the system is close enough to the coast. 00z ECMWF shows 2-8 inche from eastern NY into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Deja by? Same thing we were looking at last week @RaleighWx: Although, New England could see some snow if the system is close enough to the coast. 00z ECMWF shows 2-8 inche from eastern NY into Maine. This atmosphere isn't even close to last week. You are going to have to hope this bombs close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 The euro has cold 925 temps so you would need the low to really intensify off the BM. However, the track on the euro brings in a lot of warmer air as it approaches. You really want this to take a track well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This atmosphere isn't even close to last week. You are going to have to hope this bombs close to the coast. If anything seems to me like I said before LL cold( I know Scott another fetish of mine) in NNE would lead to a glazing icy type solutions. The upper atmosphere is pretty warm and with a predominate east flow unless this gets in the 980 range close to the coast, willies are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 If anything seems to me like I said before LL cold( I know Scott another fetish of mine) in NNE would lead to a glazing icy type solutions. The upper atmosphere is pretty warm and with a predominate east flow unless this gets in the 980 range close to the coast, willies are wet. Yeah it does try to bring in colder air from Maine, which is why if you're Kevin, there is a narrow window for snow. It's pretty warm upstairs...not impossinle for frozen, but rather borderline. It's so far out there though...not worth entertaining as it still could be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I will say I think an icestorm might be more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I don't know about any of you guys but I'm getting concerned December won't have much winter in our part of the country. Thinking the west will hog it all. Certainly won't be like last winter but then again last winter barely had any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I will say I think an icestorm might be more likely Think 0.75" of ice after 8-12" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I don't know about any of you guys but I'm getting concerned December won't have much winter in our part of the country. Thinking the west will hog it all. Certainly won't be like last winter but then again last winter barely had any snow. From to extended range, I don't think it looks that bad. You can't expect above normal snow every December and how many times has the snow started closer to mid month? Is it ideal, no, but I don't think it looks bad here specifically. Maybe it regresses back to mild weather, but this pattern in December isn't particularly mild. If you want to keep an eye on something, watch the AK area. If we lose the ridge, then worry. People are extremely antsy and need to calm down and let everything unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I don't know about any of you guys but I'm getting concerned December won't have much winter in our part of the country. Thinking the west will hog it all. Certainly won't be like last winter but then again last winter barely had any snow. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 :weenie: I don't want to see you whining in December when we're torching. Don't say I never warned you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I don't want to see you whining in December when we're torching. Don't say I never warned you lol I'm sure he is very concerned over your warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I'm sure he is very concerned over your warning. I am. He has me very very worried. Even though everything is setting up for epic Dec. Tonto Blizzard has convinced me otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I am. He has me very very worried. Even though everything is setting up for epic Dec. Tonto Blizzard has convinced me otherwise What are you seeing that is setting up for an epic December? Just be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 There isn't really any big sign for an epic December right now (even though Kevin insists on it), but I don't see a big torch sign either...despite torontoblizzard's worry with no reason given. A poleward Aleutian ridge will probably produce a decent setup for us, but we walk a fine line if the Atlantic remains unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Today is my birthday so I'll take a sunny and warm day. I'd rather have snow but we had alot of recent weather excitement so I am good with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 There isn't really any big sign for an epic December right now (even though Kevin insists on it), but I don't see a big torch sign either...despite torontoblizzard's worry with no reason given. A poleward Aleutian ridge will probably produce a decent setup for us, but we walk a fine line if the Atlantic remains unfavorable. There lies the concern. If the atlantic is as it is right now we are screwed and it doesn't matter if we have a poleward Aleutian ridge as you say the ensembles have it. Now mind you I do recall the winter of 2007-08 where I did just fine (about 90'' to be exact) and the Atlantic was pretty bad but the PAC was pretty good with a nice Aleutian ridge if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Today is my birthday so I'll take a sunny and warm day. I'd rather have snow but we had alot of recent weather excitement so I am good with it. #happybirthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 We may put up a +20F or higher today.... that would be incredibly impressive and right up LL's alley. WOW is this a massive torch today... very dry air so the snow on the mountain is holding on, but just like our localized snow, we are now seeing some local torching in NW New England. Check out this temperature map... I've got 66F at the house and 63F at 1,500ft base of the ski resort. Its even 60F at 2,100ft and 53F at 4,000ft. Looks like all of SNE and CNE/ENE are a good deal colder at this hour. And can you say Warm Air Advection? The winds are absolutely ferocious on the mountain and quite gusty down low, too. 14:35 UTC saw a gust to 71mph at the summit station, and all morning we've seen consistent gusts over 60mph. SW wind WAA coming in on a 40-60kt jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I have concerns about punting November given that the correlation coefficient between November snowfall and season snowfall over the last 72 years in BUF is 0.358. But it is what it is and we can't control it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Powderfreak just keep the snowgun hoses locked in the utility shed. Hopefully we can get some natural snow up there before New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 That actually sounds great, nothing worse than sunny and 60 on Thanksgiving..... Nasty-non-snow weather "sounds great" on Thanksgiving? Meh. No way. Cold rain is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Powderfreak just keep the snowgun hoses locked in the utility shed. Hopefully we can get some natural snow up there before New Years. lol... its quite startling how warm it got so fast today. Check out MVL's obs... it was 35/33 at 8am...and 60/46 at 10am. That's nuts...25F ambient rise in 2 hours and 13F dew rise with it. At this pace it'll be 85F by noon Its so early in the season though and I mean this year is just blowing last year away so far (guns hadn't even been turned on yet last year) so I'm not hanging myself yet. I'll wait with everyone else and if December goes to the trash then Jayhawk can add my face to the hole jumpers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.