CT Rain Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Wow that's hideous. And even more hideous when it sticks around for 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Ten days ago PF was having a meltdown over not being able to make snow, now one of the earliest openings in years. And after Tue skiing will get better every day with snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I think all of us would take winter coming in later Nov and Dec with heavy snow than in Late Feb and March..By then winter is coming to a close, and in your mind you just feel it's the end..and you know it won't last with Tip posting about the high sun angle warming his nape,while discussing how warm the inside of his car feels on alate Feb day. Nov and Dec we have dark days, low sun angle and the eager anticipation of winter..with days and days and months of snowcover and cold temps.. A different feel than the spring feel of late Feb and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Well, here's what we were staring in the face last year at this time. It can't possibly get worse than this, so we can hold on to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Wow that's hideous. And even more hideous when it sticks around for 4 months. It's pretty rare to have a pattern in place in early november where you can say that we have little to no chance at anything worthwhile through at least Jan 1. And that's what last year brought to the table. On the topic of March...it really has become a joke. Other than the 09 event (which screwed me hard) there has been nothing remotely interesting ... it's almost as if the month has been reclaimed by spring. When I think of March I think of 60+ degrees here with warm fronts just to our north over Southeast NY which sometimes get hung up over my area and clear out by afternoon. Kev definitely has a point with the mental aspect of it all, because by the second week of March most people have clocked out. But I think that reaction is a byproduct of the pattern - if it were snowy and cold people would react differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Some encouraging signs on the tail end of the GFS ensemble mean as well...it looks like the long range guidance is starting to hint pretty strongly at some changes to the large scale pattern by Thanksgiving. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f372.gif Not to be douche .. because I know what you mean, but I don't think that "pattern" has really changed from what it has been over the last couple of months really. This is currently more of a pattern relaxation, perhaps static prior to a reload. One important anchor teleconnector comes from the WPO, which is below -1SD, and statically resistant to any rise; this has been the case for a long while and at least for the next 2 weeks that looks to persist. The -WPO will periodically transmit the colder AB phase of the North Pacific- which parlays into a -EPO in time. I have heard folks either ignore or downplay the significance of the western Pacific atmospheric teleconnector, but to do so is a very, very bad idea. That index speaks volumes about how large scale wave dispersion off the Asian continent is interacting with MJO related latent heat fluxes - hint, if the the MJO wave timing and intensity is in constructive interference with the circulation over the remainder of the western Pacific, than either will reinforce the PNA negatively or positively. Also, -WPOs favor recurving typhoons, and that is correlated well in the cold season with the NP (blocking) phase of the North Pacific. The MJO just went through a low amplitude phase 3-4-5 wave spaces; no doubt, convective suppression exerted by the -WPO is in the least partial in keeping the wave at limited amplitude (Wheeler et al, which I believe registers with OLR). The WPO is scheduled to intensify to even lower index values - when if the MJO pops back out (probably early phase 7 or late 6) it will likely get a pattern reinforcement and show with stronger presentation in the circulation, following from this logic. One aspect that I find interesting is how since the middle to latter August period there is a base-line tendency for troughing along the ~90W longitude, south of 45N. That was bona fide pattern change over the previous 18 months, as during that previous extended interval the base-line had a flat ridge there. What is also fascinating for me is that the OV/MA weakness (for lack of better word) set up during a switch between a persistent positive phase of the NAO becoming negative. The negative geopotential mean is actually favored in that area for -NAO, so it is plausibly rooted in a change between the relationship of high Atlantic Basin circulation and that over eastern N/A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I think all of us would take winter coming in later Nov and Dec with heavy snow than in Late Feb and March..By then winter is coming to a close, and in your mind you just feel it's the end..and you know it won't last with Tip posting about the high sun angle warming his nape,while discussing how warm the inside of his car feels on alate Feb day. Nov and Dec we have dark days, low sun angle and the eager anticipation of winter..with days and days and months of snowcover and cold temps.. A different feel than the spring feel of late Feb and March You would make an excellent used car salesman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Well, here's what we were staring in the face last year at this time. It can't possibly get worse than this, so we can hold on to that. Ha ha, i first that that was now and going - what! impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It's pretty rare to have a pattern in place in early november where you can say that we have little to no chance at anything worthwhile through at least Jan 1. And that's what last year brought to the table. On the topic of March...it really has become a joke. Other than the 09 event (which screwed me hard) there has been nothing remotely interesting ... it's almost as if the month has been reclaimed by spring. When I think of March I think of 60+ degrees here with warm fronts just to our north over Southeast NY which sometimes get hung up over my area and clear out by afternoon. Kev definitely has a point with the mental aspect of it all, because by the second week of March most people have clocked out. But I think that reaction is a byproduct of the pattern - if it were snowy and cold people would react differently. Yeah... March kinda sucks lately... The good snow is in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yeah... March kinda sucks lately... The good snow is in April 45 pointed at your head..you staring down the barrel. would you rather have that in Nov/Dec or April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 45 pointed at your head..you staring down the barrel. would you rather have that in Nov/Dec or April? Def December of course... it stays longer and sets up the base. Nov? Meh... Maybe the last week. Gotta get the temps down But I never write off March and April here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Heck, even the end of April can produce some tulip trouncers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I may join PF neck and neck swinging around the ski lift, if there is another interior blue bomb. scott do you have any plans to move before retirement otherwise you may be hanging with the stockings one christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 scott do you have any plans to move before retirement otherwise you may be hanging with the stockings one christmas An additional 20" of snow isn't gonna move me from the coast, unless I live in real winter land in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 December snow is great, I agree. However, our climo here in ern SNE is more conducive to good February snow as compared to December..most especially early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 An additional 20" of snow isn't gonna move me from the coast, unless I live in real winter land in NNE. lol, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 lol, we'll see... it's no fun being land locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 December snow is great, I agree. However, our climo here in ern SNE is more conducive to good February snow as compared to December..most especially early December. Gotta get west..Your area is close to..but not quite as bad as SE Ct for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 it's no fun being land locked. yeah, cause the ocean is soo far from places that cash in..lol. You're acting like you live on the Gulf of Mexico coast or something...dude it's Boston Harbor. When the entire interior is getting a huge storm and you're a 34F rain I'm going to bump troll you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 yeah, cause the ocean is soo far from places that cash in..lol. You're acting like you live on the Gulf of Mexico coast or something...dude it's Boston Harbor. When the entire interior is getting a huge storm and you're a 34F rain I'm going to bump troll you It's nice in the summer having the beach, going to bars and restaurants on the water and the all around vibe. What am I gonna do if I live in Tolland...go to Applebees? It's not worth it unless it's way north. If I were to move closer to work in this area, it's because of job and affordability reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It's nice in the summer having the beach, going to bars and restaurants on the water and the all around vibe. What am I gonna do if I live in Tolland...go to Applebees? It's not worth it unless it's way north. If I were to move closer to work in this area, it's because of job and affordability reasons. I'm just messing with you man, whatever works for you is good. I hope you get nailed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Not to be douche .. because I know what you mean, but I don't think that "pattern" has really changed from what it has been over the last couple of months really. Yeah I understand where you're coming from. But going from where we are right now to the pattern advertised in the long range on the models is a pretty big change ...that's what I was shooting for...it may not be a huge change compared to the overall pattern averaged over the last couple of months though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I'm just messing with you man, whatever works for you is good. I hope you get nailed this winter. I know, it's fun when Kevin is high and mighty sitting at 1K, but he won't be when he regresses back to his 14" single storm max...or pelts away when I am 32 and S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It's nice in the summer having the beach, going to bars and restaurants on the water and the all around vibe. What am I gonna do if I live in Tolland...go to Applebees? It's not worth it unless it's way north. If I were to move closer to work in this area, it's because of job and affordability reasons. Bars and Restaurants pattern change begins mid December, complete in 18 years Enjoy it while you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Bars and Restaurants pattern change begins mid December, complete in 18 years Enjoy it while you can hahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Bars and Restaurants pattern change begins mid December, complete in 18 years Enjoy it while you can LOL, that was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I also agree that my ideal winter would pretty much look like 2010-11 except it would've been nice to get a storm in early/mid December. We had all of that cold/dry air for the first 25 days, and at the time I thought it was going to waste, but 25" of snow later, it was all worth it. Realistically, for I-95, we don't have much sustained snowpack until after December 20th. There have been cases with decent snow cover in early December -- 2005 being one of them. 3 storms in the Dec 2nd-9th period and bitter cold to boot, but then winter died by Christmas. The sun angle thing really isn't a big deal until post February 15th, so most of met winter we're talking a pretty low sun angle. Average snow for New Brunswick is 8.8" in Jan and 9.2" in Feb, no sig difference, winter basically gets going in earnest by late December. No doubt Dec has been snowier than March lately, and the averages show that, about 1" higher in Dec. March 2009 was another event where we did great in Monmouth, had 13.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah I understand where you're coming from. But going from where we are right now to the pattern advertised in the long range on the models is a pretty big change ...that's what I was shooting for...it may not be a huge change compared to the overall pattern averaged over the last couple of months though. Agreed. As far as I'm concerned, the pattern depicted out at 300 hrs is fantasy right now, and this may very well not be a pattern relaxation. We could be talking a +AO/NAO into December; there's quite a bit of variance among individual members for the NAO/AO out at D10-15. Some take it negative, others near neutral, a few slightly positive. I'm always concerned that models tend to jump on pattern changes or reloads too quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if the +NAO/AO regime lasts longer than currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 If anyone pays invoice or higher for a new car they have been taken out to the woodshed and had their rump seriously shaken This was like 10-12 years ago. And paying invoice is not like paying sticker. Trust me 90% of the population pays way more than invoice when they buy a car, even with the internet. Salesmen always find a way to slip it to you. Aren't you in sales? I'm sure you're ripping folks off left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Bars and Restaurants pattern change begins mid December, complete in 18 years Enjoy it while you can LOL Don't let Dave rattle you Scott. We started taking Ben to the People's Pint in Greenfield when he was about 6 weeks old and never stopped and he's usually great in restaurants. Just learn to recognize when baby is heading around the bend and that's when you jump up, take a walk, with beer in one hand junior in the other and let mom finish her meal. Trust me, the rest of your night will be much better for sacrificing the last few minutes of your meal. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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