CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Lol Scooter, just kidding but you and Ryan do like it Hey I do think the euro is the better model, but it's plain silly to completely treat the GFS like it's another JMA as some are. We get that model 4 times a day and the data from the GFS and output are exponentially more readily available as compared to the euro data, so people need to deal. If it wasn't for the 06z GFS, I wouldn't have shifted my BOS forecast towards the potential for a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 D10 Euro...sure it's an OP run but describing details. Bomb cooking near HAT while a 1044 HP and pretty good cold races SE from the Canadian prairies. This could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Pretty sure the EURO just made me lol. Takes a low from basically Bermuda to the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Pretty sure the EURO just made me lol. Takes a low from basically Bermuda to the NC coast. Incorrect. It has a strung out area of LP and develops a low center along the NC coast near HAT. It doesn't move a low from BDA to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 All models at the very least show days of a cool and rather raw pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 weatherfella, GFS & EURO continue to show a similar pattern. This far out as you know its not the details but the idea that matter...and the idea is a 1040mb high parked in SE Canada with a shortwave off the E.C. Interesting how a "warm pattern" could create a diamond from all that heat. Like you said good sign for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Incorrect. It has a strung out area of LP and develops a low center along the NC coast near HAT. It doesn't move a low from BDA to NC. On the loop I am looking at, it sure looks like it. HR 204 low near Bermuda HR 210 strung out low pressures NC to Bermuda HR 216 low between NC and Bermuda HR 222 offshore NC HR 228 on NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 My twitter account was hacked. Sorry everyone if you got spammed from my account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 On the loop I am looking at, it sure looks like it. HR 204 low near Bermuda HR 210 strung out low pressures NC to Bermuda HR 216 low between NC and Bermuda HR 222 offshore NC HR 228 on NC coast. Well it's a matter of semantics. 204 has 1008 lowest pressure near BDA but that 1008 spreads out into the 210 as you describe. The strung out nature starts to coaslesce pretty close to the coast in the later panels which is why I felt your original description is misleading. It's a broad area of LP that ultimately results in a deepening low as a closed H5 contour moves into the SE area. So the causation is plausible presuming it happens as described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Hey I do think the euro is the better model, but it's plain silly to completely treat the GFS like it's another JMA as some are. We get that model 4 times a day and the data from the GFS and output are exponentially more readily available as compared to the euro data, so people need to deal. If it wasn't for the 06z GFS, I wouldn't have shifted my BOS forecast towards the potential for a little snow. Kevin just put a hole in the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 weatherfella, GFS & EURO continue to show a similar pattern. This far out as you know its not the details but the idea that matter...and the idea is a 1040mb high parked in SE Canada with a shortwave off the E.C. Interesting how a "warm pattern" could create a diamond from all that heat. Like you said good sign for winter. That's not an arctic high, however...that high pressure is due to confluent flow/ridging over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Well it's a matter of semantics. 204 has 1008 lowest pressure near BDA but that 1008 spreads out into the 210 as you describe. The strung out nature starts to coaslesce pretty close to the coast in the later panels which is why I felt your original description is misleading. It's a broad area of LP that ultimately results in a deepening low as a closed H5 contour moves into the SE area. So the causation is plausible presuming it happens as described. Seems like that is the pattern we are in. Getting these lows backing in. Once we get some deep cold air in here, I wouldn't mind a low cutting off near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 That's not an arctic high, however...that high pressure is due to confluent flow/ridging over SE Canada. The D10 1044 HP racing SE is every bit Arctic. Thicknesses of 504 moving towards SE Canada is cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It certainly is an interesting pattern coming up. Probably not cold enough for early season snow but it could turn stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 pretty good agreement between euro/gfs there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 pretty good agreement between euro/gfs there Agreed. For such a block/anomalous pattern that's great D8-D10 pattern. Long duration coastal storms??? Hydro issues for SOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Question, in general is this potential pattern an example of how a positive AO can make way for snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Question, in general is this potential pattern an example of how a positive AO can make way for snowstorms? An addition to Hbergs question, what winter did we have good snows with a positive AO, I thought Will mentioned it before but I dont remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Question, in general is this potential pattern an example of how a positive AO can make way for snowstorms? AO doesn't look that positive on these maps as there's higher than normal heights over the Pole. NAO is positive since there is a strong Icelandic low with higher pressures to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 An addition to Hbergs question, what winter did we have good snows with a positive AO, I thought Will mentioned it before but I dont remember. 1992-1993 had a raging +AO and was a blockbuster winter for New England (except the far southern parts). 2007-2008 was also a big snow winter for about 2/3rds of NE...CT/RI not so much...big +AO that winter. You probably have to go back to 1975-1976 for a solid snow winter in our area with a big +AO before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Will, what do you make of the pattern at the end of the Euro? Looks to me as if a -AO is developing with a +PNA, but the Atlantic is still miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Will, what do you make of the pattern at the end of the Euro? Looks to me as if a -AO is developing with a +PNA, but the Atlantic is still miserable. Yeah its not an ideal pattern...but it would make it colder for us beyond that range. There's a rapidly building scandanavian block toward the pole which is trying to push the Baffin Island vortex southeast. Its the OP Euro though...the ensembles are more what I would look at beyond D7. They have a more modified versuon of that pattern. Mostly for New England its a seasonable pattern tempwise with a pesky high influencing us from the north and eventually onshore flow with that storm system offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 This is a great pattern for long duration snowstorms for us. Coast will be marginal but inland we could lay down a solid 1 foot snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yeah its not an ideal pattern...but it would make it colder for us beyond that range. There's a rapidly building scandanavian block toward the pole which is trying to push the Baffin Island vortex southeast. Its the OP Euro though...the ensembles are more what I would look at beyond D7. They have a more modified versuon of that pattern. Mostly for New England its a seasonable pattern tempwise with a pesky high influencing us from the north and eventually onshore flow with that storm system offshore. Yeah the pattern has more of a Ginxy high tide/sandbag appeal than feet and feet of snow lol. Talk about blocky and amplifed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 This is a great pattern for long duration snowstorms for us. Coast will be marginal but inland we could lay down a solid 1 foot snowpack No it's not...the blocking is much too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Beautiful day here with wall to wall sunshine and nearly all of snow is gone. You could almost mistake today for a day in March with green grass and random piles of melting snow. I'll take more of this until winter starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 No it's not...the blocking is much too far south. Sorry sockswithsandels, but it is a good pattern for snow..As long as that Quebec high is there..it will be plenty cold for inteiror snow. Not in Dobbs Fairy..but in Sne it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Wow, what a day. After it cleared (around noon) it was just gorgeous. Hit 64 in downtown Northampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 This is a great pattern for long duration snowstorms for us. Coast will be marginal but inland we could lay down a solid 1 foot snowpack Stay in fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Monday should be even better than today with sunshine from the get go and high temps near 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.