CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Euro and ensembles OTS for now. We'll see if it comes back, GFS still hints at it. Signs also that cross polar flow gets established and Canada gets cold. Trough begins to develop in the east as well late in the period. I think that may bode well for the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Euro and ensembles OTS for now. We'll see if it comes back, GFS still hints at it. Signs also that cross polar flow gets established and Canada gets cold. Trough begins to develop in the east as well late in the period. I think that may bode well for the beginning of December. I do think some of it may hinge on tropical convection so we'll have to see how that goes. Signs aren't coherent there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Overwhelming scene. 600+ homes flooded, 30+ homes condemned or gone. This is a good day, bravo Dave, thank you veterans!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Theres some interesting trends today Im noticing for the 9-11 day period. Both the GFS & Euro ensembles showing a strong HP in SE Canada with a small trough across the east. I guess some pro mets can chime in. Im not sure about this type of pattern, but even the OP GFS at day 9-10 is showing CAD. Could be interesting for interior NE if we can get a wave to dig. It looks like one of those odd patterns where the AO is so positive it forced high pressure around SE canada. The cold would probably be in the stale variety but if we can get a shortwave to dig it might be able to keep areas cold enough. Sorry, but it's just something I've noticed. It's Heisenberg. Walt named himself after the early 1900s nobel prize winning theoretical physicist renowned for his work on Quantum Mechanics and the development of the "Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle." At least you have excellent taste in television. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Sorry, but it's just something I've noticed. It's Heisenberg. Walt named himself after the early 1900s nobel prize winning theoretical physicist renowned for his work on Quantum Mechanics and the development of the "Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle." At least you have excellent taste in television. Best show out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Best show out there. yep, by a mile. Sucks we have to wait so long for the next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Thank you veterans! Feeling good about thanksgiving onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Thank you veterans! Feeling good about thanksgiving onward. Even applying the typical model speed bias, I think signs point to more colder air so we'll see. If the euro ensembles are right then it will happen, but we have to be aware of any over amplification of the ridge. Looking at the long range global signals, I think it does support a strong ridge and a possible slight shift east... But this is speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 And like several have said, thank you Vets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Thanks Ray (40/70) and any other veterans on the board...and the rest that have served in general. As someone who is still considering the military and has been for a couple of years I realize how big of a commitment it is. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Absolutely amazing out there! Off to the playground. 51F now, near 60 by kickoff. Heavy heavy game watching today. Upper 60s Monday, final big grill blast awaits. I try to keep grilling unless the snow is too deep or it is too cold to cook...but this might be the last real warmup for a while (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Absolutely amazing out there! Off to the playground. 51F now, near 60 by kickoff. Heavy heavy game watching today. Upper 60s Monday, final big grill blast awaits. I try to keep grilling unless the snow is too deep or it is too cold to cook...but this might be the last real warmup for a while (I hope) Yeah I don't mind these milder days at all right now. I mean I don't like a torch November, but some mild days are nice. It ain't snowing so might as well get it over with now. Besides, it's not like you and I had a snowpack lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Euro esnembles are really not that warm for NE at all after this torch the next few days. The central CONUS gets pretty mild over the next 10-12 days, but NE stays pretty seasonal and even gets chilly by the end of the Euro ensembles...will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Cold pattern AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Sorry, but it's just something I've noticed. It's Heisenberg. Walt named himself after the early 1900s nobel prize winning theoretical physicist renowned for his work on Quantum Mechanics and the development of the "Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle." At least you have excellent taste in television. I believe I tried that during sign-up but it was taken, I did realize that trust me I am a groupy for the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Nice..Just like this past storm..It will trend colder and drier. Monday let's all just draw the shades, stay inside and re-enter the world on Tuesday night. Man you've come full circle since the summer...a couple months ago you'd be having everyone open windows and posting BDL high temps. Now we are hiding from nice weather Beautiful wx to get out and skin up the mountain for some spring like turns. Man made snow is like 3-5 feet of concrete on the ski runs so that's not going anywhere...that snow is in it to win it now, melting in April or May (or if 2012, in 80F March wx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Lol nobody mentions the biblical GFS 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Scooter model GFS has coastal t giving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I'll be in Stowe next Sunday-Wed. I'm thinking my chance for seeing some snow up there is rather good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Lol nobody mentions the biblical GFS 12z run The AmWx members are a model-savvy group that knows not to hype a D10 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Scooter model GFS has coastal t giving week ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I'll be in Stowe next Sunday-Wed. I'm thinking my chance for seeing some snow up there is rather good. Chances for some snow in Stowe is good now until April, never been up there in the winter and didnt see some snow, anything from flurries to heavy localized snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I never thought torch for November, but I thought at least a little above when the month started. I think we have a fairly healthy chance of near or below now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I never thought torch for November, but I thought at least a little above when the month started. I think we have a fairly healthy chance of near or below now. Yeah I thought we would torch harder after the first week...but aside form these next couple days, the pattern is actually pretty seasonable for us while the central CONUS torches. We may see some even below avg wx after T-day as well to close out the month, but that is a ways out. That Quebec high is always tough for us to torch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yeah I thought we would torch harder after the first week...but aside form these next couple days, the pattern is actually pretty seasonable for us while the central CONUS torches. We may see some even below avg wx after T-day as well to close out the month, but that is a ways out. That Quebec high is always tough for us to torch on. That feature certainly has been notable on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Lol Scooter, just kidding but you and Ryan do like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yeah I thought we would torch harder after the first week...but aside form these next couple days, the pattern is actually pretty seasonable for us while the central CONUS torches. We may see some even below avg wx after T-day as well to close out the month, but that is a ways out. That Quebec high is always tough for us to torch on. Bingo! How many times have we snowed and 19 down to the S Coast while DCA is 57 in mid winter with this feature? Latitude helps immensely. How can you not like the fact that torches are underperforming and cold shots over. Keep hope alive folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 For those of you with memories...2002. We had good cold late October with modeled weeks of warm that didn't pan out in November. It wants to be cool now. We're going to the races this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Cold times are here to stay..with a snowstorm next week for a white holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 A few weeks ago, 58F felt coolish out...now it feels like 80F today after a week of well below average temps. Tomorrow is going to feel like the 4th of July. Gotta keep in mind that climo for the 850 0C line doesn't reach BOS-ORH line until the last couple of days of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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