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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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Here are the H5 anomalies for d10. Notice the low anomaly off the SE coast and the higher anomalies in Canada. That is not a ridge in Canada with those height contours going E-W, the oranges mean heights are abnormally high. This is in part to the trough in the GOA. What we have is sort of a cutoff low off the coast, and a disturbance that is able to dive into the US and try to bring the low or redevelop it further north. Because Canada is shut down, we have little to no cold air around for many. The only way this can produce anything frozen for higher elevations in SNE, is for this to go nuts near or SE of the BM and force some sort of dynamic cooling. I guess you can't rule out temps aloft being a degree or two cooler as we get closer, but this won't be an easy deal to get snow....not impossible though.

post-33-0-61276300-1352588852_thumb.gif

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Here are the H5 anomalies for d10. Notice the low anomaly off the SE coast and the higher anomalies in Canada. That is not a ridge in Canada with those height contours going E-W, the oranges mean heights are abnormally high. This is in part to the trough in the GOA. What we have is sort of a cutoff low off the coast, and a disturbance that is able to dive into the US and try to bring the low or redevelop it further north. Because Canada is shut down, we have little to no cold air around for many. The only way this can produce anything frozen for higher elevations in SNE, is for this to go nuts near or SE of the BM and force some sort of dynamic cooling. I guess you can't rule out temps aloft being a degree or two cooler as we get closer, but this won't be an easy deal to get snow....not impossible though.

post-33-0-61276300-1352588852_thumb.gif

That is a bad Atlantic pattern, we could get away with a GOA trough if we had a better Atlantic. Not impossible though, but hard to get snow there. December 1992 did it on a similar pattern...but the ridge in E Canada was a bit better looking. Also helps being 20 days later in climo.

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That is a bad Atlantic pattern, we could get away with a GOA trough if we had a better Atlantic. Not impossible though, but hard to get snow there. December 1992 did it on a similar pattern...but the ridge in E Canada was a bit better looking. Also helps being 20 days later in climo.

Yeah look at the shape of the trough in Greenland, just helps yanks those winds westerly over Canada. It relaxes a bit after d12 or so.

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Here's how we know this a different year than last winter..and likely will yield results most of us will welcome.

1) Cold shots/cooldowns are overperforming

2) Even with Canada not ice cold..we are still getting below normal shots that have legs in the northeast and mid atl.

3) warmups are shorter and not as powerful as last winter..and cold shots are of longer duration and seem to finally push the warm anomolies aside

So while it may not be a true winter pattern..it is below normal overall..and far, far better than where we stood last year at this time..which was basically staring down the barrel of a 45

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It's freakin' November. If you are expecting cold and snowy, keep smoking the good stuff. This should still be the time where we try to find hints of the winter pattern..not hope for a day 10 snowstorm when the average high is not even under 50F.

Even up here the average high/low at MVL which is 730ft is 47/28... of course up at 2,700ft its probably 37/20 and 4,000ft the average high is near freezing (max min of 28/21 today, and haven't seen freezing in over a week at 3,900ft).

I am starting to expect cold and snowy in those upper elevations... but down low at 700-1000ft in the valley, snow is still a nice luxury when average highs are still closer to 50F than 40F.

But that would explain why the valley is brown and the snowpack is 9" up above 3,500ft where the average high is near freezing.

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The GEFS and Euro ensembles both have a 1034 high over N Maine at 180 hours which is very impressive for an ensemble mean at that time range...that would be the source of low dewpoint air to try and get any wintry precip out of that D8-10 system if it actually affected us. The actual airmass itself wont be that cold. That's about the only interesitng thing I've got for the next week plus...we'll be pretty darn warm on Monday, but not threatening any records.

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The GEFS and Euro ensembles both have a 1034 high over N Maine at 180 hours which is very impressive for an ensemble mean at that time range...that would be the source of low dewpoint air to try and get any wintry precip out of that D8-10 system if it actually affected us. The actual airmass itself wont be that cold. That's about the only interesitng thing I've got for the next week plus...we'll be pretty darn warm on Monday, but not threatening any records.

Nice..Just like this past storm..It will trend colder and drier.

Monday let's all just draw the shades, stay inside and re-enter the world on Tuesday night.

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Nice..Just like this past storm..It will trend colder and drier.

Monday let's all just draw the shades, stay inside and re-enter the world on Tuesday night.

If we even get a storm...maybe. We could get whiffed out to sea on this thing pretty easily.

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The GEFS and Euro ensembles both have a 1034 high over N Maine at 180 hours which is very impressive for an ensemble mean at that time range...that would be the source of low dewpoint air to try and get any wintry precip out of that D8-10 system if it actually affected us. The actual airmass itself wont be that cold. That's about the only interesitng thing I've got for the next week plus...we'll be pretty darn warm on Monday, but not threatening any records.

I wish we could get a recharge of cooler air because it's kind of recycled garbage with the stale high in place.....like somehow get a fropa in here beforehand.

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Theres some interesting trends today Im noticing for the 9-11 day period. Both the GFS & Euro ensembles showing a strong HP in SE Canada with a small trough across the east. I guess some pro mets can chime in. Im not sure about this type of pattern, but even the OP GFS at day 9-10 is showing CAD. Could be interesting for interior NE if we can get a wave to dig. It looks like one of those odd patterns where the AO is so positive it forced high pressure around SE canada. The cold would probably be in the stale variety but if we can get a shortwave to dig it might be able to keep areas cold enough.

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post-8091-0-00262700-1352601850_thumb.jp

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Well taking a look more in depth, even the euro would allow for interior snow as 925 temps get below freezing and temps at the surface in the mid 30s. Of course IF this were to happen. The low is also way east on the euro so if it did come closer, you risk warmer mid level temps. That's how fine of a line it is.

It's almost silly to even talk about it, but since it was brought up..that's the way it looks on the euro. Better off just to only keep one eye on it for another week to be honest.

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Absolutely gorgeous morning! Snow pile hanging on by a thread.......over 700 volunteers have signed up to meet at Jennings Beach for the cleanup today!!! Heading down there in a bit to drop off over 200 garbage bags and gloves we are donating. That departure at BOS will be wiped out by the end of the month, just simple math.

Euro looked boring.

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