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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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  On 11/9/2012 at 8:17 PM, Sultan said:

The highest tide of the next 2 years, that is right 2 years is Maximum 12.37 feet at 2012-11-15 11:36 EST. we better hope this is just a fantasy map.

yeah those are big ones coming. i was looking at that. but right now looks like peak tides would be a few days ahead of any threat.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 8:18 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

cycloneslurpie isn't going to like this...but i always get the post storm blues. need something damaging to track again.

Yeah it definitely feels depressing after that storm knowing we have to wait a while again. It will become easier to wait though if that storm near D10 starts to become more realistic looking inside of D7...at least give us something to track that is not a total fantasy.

At least the ensemble support is decent. Too bad the cold air supply is not.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 8:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

EC ensembles have a low heights anomaly in the Bahamas at d9 and a s/w trough coming through the Plains as well.

Sure, It will develop a SLP and probably send it right into NJ or LI as well, Seems to be the favored areas so far this fall

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i get the feeling folks won't be happy unless there's a millennium storm, where it's like the highest tide in 10,234.74 years, a Sandy scenario involving a -5SD trough capturing a Category 5 hurricane, and a rupture of the Canary Island fault that sends off a 1,000' high tsunamis across the Atlantic Basin, a once in a 10,000,000 year solar flare, a Cosmic Ray Burster, an asteroid impact, and a black hole colliding with the sun all hitting at the precise quantum moment in time.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 9:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i get the feeling folks won't be happy unless there's a millennium storm, where it's like the highest tide in 10,234.74 years, a Sandy scenario involving a -5SD trough capturing a Category 5 hurricane, and a rupture of the Canary Island fault that sends off a 1,000' high tsunamis across the Atlantic Basin, a once in a 10,000,000 year solar flare, a Cosmic Ray Burster, an asteroid impact, and a black hole colliding with the sun all hitting at the precise quantum moment in time.

it is 2012 Tippy

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  On 11/9/2012 at 9:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i get the feeling folks won't be happy unless there's a millennium storm, where it's like the highest tide in 10,234.74 years, a Sandy scenario involving a -5SD trough capturing a Category 5 hurricane, and a rupture of the Canary Island fault that sends off a 1,000' high tsunamis across the Atlantic Basin, a once in a 10,000,000 year solar flare, a Cosmic Ray Burster, an asteroid impact, and a black hole colliding with the sun all hitting at the precise quantum moment in time.

I mean that would be ideal. :P

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  On 11/9/2012 at 9:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I saw that. Pretty interesting.

it's mostly for educational stuff - but... there's something about this year. Perhaps there's a underlying phase-potential study that can fall out of this, like a new index, that determined by stream frequencies/wave numbers where an interference (constructive or destructive) tendency is derived.

Some years it really is pulling teeth to get anything harmonious in the atmosphere. Not so far this year, the chorus' songs are making angels weep.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 10:03 PM, Sultan said:

it is 2012 Tippy

ah haha - right.

i mean ... we had a once in 200 or whatever year tropical deal on the MA followed not a week later by a snow storm. shist, if we didn't get another anything until Christmas it might be too soon given climo odds for event frequency.

Although - hmmm. I think Will mentioned how there had been a stark lack of interesting events ever since the 60" in 45 days of 2010

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  On 11/9/2012 at 10:27 PM, NJwinter23 said:

Haha seriously though, that is a good catch and a very interesting anomaly there, given what we've been through already....I dont even wanna let my mind wander back there man

Furthermore the last time we expressed our boredom with a mundane weather pattern, 2 weeks later we got the freaking sandy blizzicane.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 10:27 PM, NJwinter23 said:

Haha seriously though, that is a good catch and a very interesting anomaly there, given what we've been through already....I dont even wanna let my mind wander back there man

Like you...I can't possibly fathom another coastal storm. It may very well be nothing, but it would be funny to get something other than your average low.

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  On 11/9/2012 at 9:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i get the feeling folks won't be happy unless there's a millennium storm, where it's like the highest tide in 10,234.74 years, a Sandy scenario involving a -5SD trough capturing a Category 5 hurricane, and a rupture of the Canary Island fault that sends off a 1,000' high tsunamis across the Atlantic Basin, a once in a 10,000,000 year solar flare, a Cosmic Ray Burster, an asteroid impact, and a black hole colliding with the sun all hitting at the precise quantum moment in time.

And if it's on the winter solstice ;)

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Euro ensembles seem to have the threat more for the Wednesday before Thanksgiving....obviously a lot can change though between now and then. They have an overall warm pattern for the CONUS though near the end of the run, while it is still mild in the CONUS, it has developed some cross polar flow north of the Bering Straight and that could lead to a much colder pattern for December...but it will be dependent on how poleward the ridging is.

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  On 11/10/2012 at 12:27 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles seem to have the threat more for the Wednesday before Thanksgiving....obviously a lot can change though between now and then. They have an overall warm pattern for the CONUS though near the end of the run, while it is still mild in the CONUS, it has developed some cross polar flow north of the Bering Straight and that could lead to a much colder pattern for December...but it will be dependent on how poleward the ridging is.

The 18z GEFS seem to have a general pattern of trough off west coast and east coast and ridge in the central. Do the euro ensembles look something like this?

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