ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 From Scott: The weeklies did have a little relaxation in terms of temps week 3, but low H5 anomalies off the SE coast and a west based -NAO. They also had a trough west of California with a weak Aleutian ridge. Weak 4 had an interesting pattern with ridging all from the Aleutians into the North Pole and on the west coast albeit weak there. However, low anomalies at H5 all from the Davis Straits and what looks like a 50/50 low and confluence zone over Newfoundland. Would be chilly here verbatim. From Will: Week 4 is actually a very cold composite for New England historically where the 5h anomalies are. At any rate, good to see the weeklies continuing with the ridging where it needs to be on the PAC side. Vastly different than the weeklies this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Holy cow. Euro 240 has potential written all over it. Big PNA ridge, part of the PV acting like a 50/50, and a ridge over Greenland. And a s/w digging like crazy in the lower MS Valley. Based on where the s/w is, it looks like (yes, extrapolating here) a fish, but damn that setup is ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 sad that with -NAO, we still get a cutter It'll change again tonight. 12Z yesterday was over Chicago, 0Z last night over VA Beach, 12Z Today like Cleveland. I expect China by all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Holy cow. Euro 240 has potential written all over it. Big PNA ridge, part of the PV acting like a 50/50, and a ridge over Greenland. And a s/w digging like crazy in the lower MS Valley. Based on where the s/w is, it looks like (yes, extrapolating here) a fish, but damn that setup is ripe. At the very least the flow looks fun. Very amplified look for sure. Anything can happen. Any NS energy riding down the front of the western ridge and anything to the south needs to be watched. Looks like the local ski areas will all be open well in front of xmas. This is a good thing. Their seasons are too short as it is. A couple years in a row like last year can really put a dent on the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Holy cow. Euro 240 has potential written all over it. Big PNA ridge, part of the PV acting like a 50/50, and a ridge over Greenland. And a s/w digging like crazy in the lower MS Valley. Based on where the s/w is, it looks like (yes, extrapolating here) a fish, but damn that setup is ripe. It's an interesting look but has more northern stream than we'd like but at 240 hrs that's probably not important. It is a cold looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Euro consistency = ping pong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Holy cow. Euro 240 has potential written all over it. Big PNA ridge, part of the PV acting like a 50/50, and a ridge over Greenland. And a s/w digging like crazy in the lower MS Valley. Based on where the s/w is, it looks like (yes, extrapolating here) a fish, but damn that setup is ripe. Nice, move that western ridge west or thin it out a bit and it's a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS a hair better for next week. Surface low organizes right over head. All rain for us still. Interior NE looking good (what else is new). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It's an interesting look but has more northern stream than we'd like but at 240 hrs that's probably not important. It is a cold looking pattern. Not sure how good the SV GFS based analog product is, but 50% of the 0Z, 6Z and 12Z GFS Ensemble's analog dates have >=1" snowfall on what would work out to be December 7th give or take a day to so. By that I mean, the 6Z GFSE analogs centered on 12/2 yield 12/11/10, 11/30/5, 12/1/73, 12/7/56, 12/14/09, 12/18/55, 11/28/64, 12/9/66, 12/18/63, 12/9/58. Six of those years had snowfalls of 1.4", 2.6", 18", 8.9", 7.5" or .5" at four or five days further into the future (I used BWI for pre IAD years, and IAD for the rest). The Operational analog dates, also centered on 12/2/12, likewise show that 5-6 of the 10 analog dates for today's 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs with >1" of snow between 12/6/12 and 12/8/12. In fact their analog years have been harping on dates in Nov/Dec 1963, 1966, 1995, 2009 as well as (unfortunately, but also less frequently) 1991 and 2010 for the last nine days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The CPC analog dates are notably less exciting with 60% of them showing measurable snowfall within a few days of the analog date, but only 30% of the dates showing more than 1" within +/-5 days of the analog date. They favor the same years, as those shown in the SV analogs, just not as "prime" on the exact analog date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like the GFS is now in the cutter camp for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Reading the other regions seems to have a concensus that it will get much cooler heading into Dec but signals that a relaxation may come towards the beginning of the new year. it would be nice to get something in the bank during Dec if possible if this forecast does verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Reading the other regions seems to have a concensus that it will get much cooler heading into Dec but signals that a relaxation may come towards the beginning of the new year. it would be nice to get something in the bank during Dec if possible if this forecast does verify. Relaxation in early Jan. may not be a bad thing. That may lead to a reloading of the pattern towards the end of Jan early Feb. Right in the prime time for Mid Atlantic snow. But I agree some snow in Dec. would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Relaxation in early Jan. may not be a bad thing. That may lead to a reloading of the pattern towards the end of Jan early Feb. Right in the prime time for Mid Atlantic snow. But I agree some snow in Dec. would be nice. sounds like a "normal" winter around here the way I remember them, albeit vaguely gets cold in DEC, the good winters produce decent snow, the normal ones we'll "see" some, and the lousy ones are snowless and barely cold with NE getting accumulating snow events we thaw in early-mid JAN, then our "prime" snow season begins when we have legit shots through late FEB (early to mid MAR in the decent winters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Reading the other regions seems to have a concensus that it will get much cooler heading into Dec but signals that a relaxation may come towards the beginning of the new year. it would be nice to get something in the bank during Dec if possible if this forecast does verify. I wouldn't worry too much about trying to get the warm spells versus the cold ones right as no method I no is that good when looking a month away. They're just educated guesses that may or may not be right. Climo would argue for some relaxation after we get cold. If we get any nino like response in this not quite nino year. we have a good chance at having a negative ao period sometime in our wheelhouse to give us a shot at a 5 inch or plus event. That doesn't mean we'll get one, we still live in DC so we need to also get lucky with timing and the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Reading the other regions seems to have a concensus that it will get much cooler heading into Dec but signals that a relaxation may come towards the beginning of the new year. it would be nice to get something in the bank during Dec if possible if this forecast does verify. Adam emailed earlier this week and told me he was actually concerned about my due date and a possible event during that time period. So if it ends up snowing mid-December you all can thank me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I wouldn't worry too much about trying to get the warm spells versus the cold ones right as no method I no is that good when looking a month away. They're just educated guesses that may or may not be right. Climo would argue for some relaxation after we get cold. If we get any nino like response in this not quite nino year. we have a good chance at having a negative ao period sometime in our wheelhouse to give us a shot at a 5 inch or plus event. That doesn't mean we'll get one, we still live in DC so we need to also get lucky with timing and the storm track. Not worried at all. I actually like how things are progressing in the LR. Like you said, getting a warm up of any significance after a cold snap is typical. Having things verify as shown so far is always the tricky part. And totally agree that a -AO would benefit the DC area greatly. Adam emailed earlier this week and told me he was actually concerned about my due date and a possible event during that time period. So if it ends up snowing mid-December you all can thank me All I see here is good, bad, sad news Good that there might be storms, bad that it could mess with mapbaby and sad that Adam only emailed you and not me. . Hurty hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Adam emailed earlier this week and told me he was actually concerned about my due date and a possible event during that time period. So if it ends up snowing mid-December you all can thank me Nah, we'll thank your new baby (congrats!) as I'm sure he/she will be the one deciding to pull the trigger knowing snow is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Everyone must be traveling if a Euro snow tease doesn't even get remarked on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Everyone must be traveling if a Euro snow tease doesn't even get remarked on. Any insight! Traveling so not the normal access!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jb says this will be east coast snowstorm ...track va capes to New England. Says storm can't cut with -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jb says this will be east coast snowstorm ...track va capes to New England. Says storm can't cut with -nao Traveling, don't know what the Euro showed, but several GFS members are at least interesting for next week. I'm like H2O, I'd like to see some snow in Dec. and, with no reasoning to base it on, I feel like we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jb says this will be east coast snowstorm ...track va capes to New England. Says storm can't cut with -nao Ji when is this supposed to happen next weekend or earlier?? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Euro gives us some cold precip lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Weak s/w but 1-2 inches for Leesburg per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 00Z Canadian is somewhat interesting. Pulls the low to the west into western PA then looks as if it pops a secondary just off of the OC, MD coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Vast difference between the Canadian 00Z which has the primary running into W PA and a secondary popping off the coast vs yesterday's 12Z which runs the low up into the central Great Lakes. Looking at the 500's you can see the reason with the energy yesterday up in the upper widwest and the 00Z has the energy diving down to almost the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Think we are holding out hope in the Mid Atlantic! I hoping for some flakes, but accumulating snow, Not sure we have that in our cards!! Happy Turkey day! Go Cowboys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jb says this will be east coast snowstorm ...track va capes to New England. Says storm can't cut with -nao And he'll be wrong yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 And he'll be wrong yet again. Maybe not. Euro continues to be pretty far south. Still a lot of model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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