Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The vort is going to change of course. It was a much stronger vort on the euro last night it seemed. too bad we've seen the euro stumble often in this range for ec winter events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 that's a legit northern stream dig. those always happen around here. The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 too bad we've seen the euro stumble often in this range for ec winter events True but, it does have semi support from the GFS and the pattern change storm seems probable. I mean heck 1" or so in November ya i'll take it. And for you guys that would basically beat last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. The end of the run is a beauty as for as indices go. -NAO, +PNA, waiting to see AO. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfsindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. yeah the longer range looks decentish tho nothing appears more than temporary for now. i don't think we're getting anything (i don't count a trace as worth tracking) before at least december, so we might as well hope things align once we can actually get snow of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 yeah the longer range looks decentish tho nothing appears more than temporary for now. i don't think we're getting anything (i don't count a trace as worth tracking) before at least december, so we might as well hope things align once we can actually get snow of consequence. And it's precarious at best to think a 300hr prog in the pac is reliable but still, it seems fairly likely that we are setting up for an amplified pattern. There are signs of it starting before fantasyland. My expectations are certainly proper though. I'm really enjoying the various looks because they're the fun kind and not the kind that make you want to walk into traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 yep...rain to snow that storm was much more dynamic we had thunder and lightning if it's the storm I'm thinking of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 you're thinking of 11/11 OK the number of storms that just missed us that winter was even more obscene than I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Matt, I do think the vort was further s for that storm based on Ray's 500h maps plus the trough was still amplifying so it does jazzier than the forecast for the Chill storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 yeah...the NW burbs did well... Do you have an archive on every storm that you look back on?, or if you remember every one by heart that is just downright sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Do you have an archive on every storm that you look back on?, or if you remember every one by heart that is just downright sick. there's a map like 5 posts up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 there's a map like 5 posts up I know that, i meant like he was correcting Mitch and he always knows ever detail about every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 yeah...it sucked...I only got 58" no, don't get me wrong, I wasn't complaining I meant not only did we get a ton of hits, but there were a whole lot of storms that just missed us too that I forgot about it was an exciting winter, probably more so than 09/10 because except for the thaw in mid/late JAN, we were seemingly tracking storms one after the other all winter 09/10 otoh was streaky (DEC & FEB)....just the two best snow streaks in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 It is a combo of memory and sources....the front on 11/11/95 is pretty "famous" It is very impressive, i think i am around your age and there is no way in hell i can remember back to a front in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 in the defense of any who may be "vocally" impatient, it has been almost 2 years since we had anything of consequence around here so I say free passes to all At the same time, before that you guys had two historic winters in 7 years (2002-03 and 2009-10)...just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 At the same time, before that you guys had two historic winters in 7 years (2002-03 and 2009-10)...just saying. True, but i think most people would rather have average winters every year. Versus having 2 record breakers in 7 years and have so many painful ones in the past 12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 At the same time, before that you guys had two historic winters in 7 years (2002-03 and 2009-10)...just saying. And in between those years were crappy, below average winters for DC.....just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 And in between those years were crappy, below average winters for DC.....just saying. really, we have had decent winters every 7 FOOKIN YEARS from 95/96-09/10 and we're supposed to feel bad for complaining???? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 One should expect a "crappy" winter if they live in the subtropics... If only we could live near the ocean and get maritime influence to ruin our snow. We're unfortunate that we have to do it the old fashioned way...luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Haven't seen the 192 panel yet but the euro is not going to make many friends on the EC this run. 850 low is in the oh valley. I think we know the end of the story without seeing the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 True, but i think most people would rather have average winters every year. Versus having 2 record breakers in 7 years and have so many painful ones in the past 12 years. Yeah, I get that people would like every winter to at least be "average". But, that's just how things average out in the Mid-Atlantic. A lot of not very snowy winters, some decent ones, and every once in awhile a blockbuster to even things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Haven't seen the 192 panel yet but the euro is not going to make many friends on the EC this run. 850 low is in the oh valley. I think we know the end of the story without seeing the rest of the run. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 really, we have had decent winters every 7 FOOKIN YEARS from 95/96-09/10 and we're supposed to feel bad for complaining???? lol Yeah but those "decent" winters were three of the snowiest on record for your region lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah but those "decent" winters were three of the snowiest on record for your region lol. AGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Haven't seen the 192 panel yet but the euro is not going to make many friends on the EC this run. 850 low is in the oh valley. I think we know the end of the story without seeing the rest of the run. That's what its ens mean was doing last night and where the GFS vort would argue for the low track. The good news is that it's still a 192 hr prog and the guidance remains all over the place. I think a track n of us is the most likely one but you can always hope and knowing you, you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 That's what its ens mean was doing last night and where the GFS vort would argue for the low track. The good news is that it's still a 192 hr prog and the guidance remains all over the place. I think a track n of us is the most likely one but you can always hope and knowing you, you will. Ha! I'm an eternal optimist. What can I do? lol If we get a half dozen flakes on the front end then I will claim success (and victory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Apparently recent Euro monthlies look cold? Can anyone confirm? PV is well and truly split on the Euro by 168hrs. Northern plains going into the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Apparently recent Euro monthlies look cold? Can anyone confirm? PV is well and truly split on the Euro by 168hrs. Northern plains going into the freezer. They were disussing it in the NE thread last night and i think it was Scott who said they looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Apparently recent Euro monthlies look cold? Can anyone confirm? PV is well and truly split on the Euro by 168hrs. Northern plains going into the freezer. And maps like this make me gidddy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 AGW That's one explanation. There certainly have been a lot of snow records set across the U.S. since the mid-1990s. Here near me, Boulder has seen their #1 and #3 snowiest winters in the past 6 years. But anyway, getting off-topic, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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