Deck Pic Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I could see a mix event...doubtful we get an all snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 a few inches is a snowstorm? always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I could see a mix event...doubtful we get an all snow event... That's kinda what I was thinking. Depends on timing. Of course if it comes in at night it would perform the best. Thermal profiles will definitely be marginal at best in a setup like this in Nov. Usual suspects to the N-W get the better end of the deal. Well, if anything actually happens. Setup appears logical at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 That's kinda what I was thinking. Depends on timing. Of course if it comes in at night it would perform the best. Thermal profiles will definitely be marginal at best in a setup like this in Nov. Usual suspects to the N-W get the better end of the deal. Well, if anything actually happens. Setup appears logical at the very least. Are we ever going to get out of November? Seems like I have read this sentence 25 times in the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 That's kinda what I was thinking. Depends on timing. Of course if it comes in at night it would perform the best. Thermal profiles will definitely be marginal at best in a setup like this in Nov. Usual suspects to the N-W get the better end of the deal. Well, if anything actually happens. Setup appears logical at the very least. Also depends on whether any of the models are anywhere close to the actual solution. They seem to be flipping a bit more than usual in the 7-10 range. Didn't the Euro just have a cutter on its prior run? I know that's a ways out there also. Precip, precip, precip. Give us that and lets take our chances. Last year, and I remember myself and many others making posts about it, the cold always underperformed. This year it seems that it over performs. That and a seemingly active coastal storm track has me feeling this might be a good season for us. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Are we ever going to get out of November? Seems like I have read this sentence 25 times in the past month. It's still November.......We'll probably get out of it on December 1st. We all want snow - but come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Also depends on whether any of the models are anywhere close to the actual solution. Absolutely. I was just pointing out what I was seeing and thinking. I think we both know there's little if any chance for good accuracy with a 7 day lead. I am glad models are backing off on the crazy cold push into AZ. Those types of outbreaks take time to reshuffle before we can move back towards a favorable EC setup. There are times when the whole country can be cold but not in Nov so we have to root against any big and cold trough out west for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Also depends on whether any of the models are anywhere close to the actual solution. They seem to be flipping a bit more than usual in the 7-10 range. Didn't the Euro just have a cutter on its prior run? I know that's a ways out there also. Precip, precip, precip. Give us that and lets take our chances. Last year, and I remember myself and many others making posts about it, the cold always underperformed. This year it seems that it over performs. That and a seemingly active coastal storm track has me feeling this might be a good season for us. Fingers crossed. blocking has been quite good this year and if memory serves, 09' was similar in that respect (blocking was stronger as we approached the event) I'm not saying this year will be like that one, but I've noticed over the years that in non-Nina years, modeled blocking gets stronger as we approach the event until the models decide where it will, in fact, be in Nina years, the blocking seems to weaken as we get closer all of this is anecdotal, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 It's still November.......We'll probably get out of it on December 1st. We all want snow - but come on... Its sarcasm...... I guess I should appreciate that we've had snow chances already, but I'm ready for some non-marginal snow (I know, I know, we live in the MA, its always that way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Its sarcasm...... I guess I should appreciate that we've had snow chances already, but I'm ready for some non-marginal snow (I know, I know, we live in the MA, its always that way) We should all take a collective sigh of relief that we aren't chasing a 15+ day pattern change. That crap sucks. Even if marginal is the best we can swing through all of Dec it will be a million times better than last year. I'm really enjoying the seasonal to below in Nov. It looks, feels, and smells right if that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We should all take a collective sigh of relief that we aren't chasing a 15+ day pattern change. That crap sucks. Even if marginal is the best we can swing through all of Dec it will be a million times better than last year. I'm really enjoying the seasonal to below in Nov. It looks, feels, and smells right if that makes any sense. in the defense of any who may be "vocally" impatient, it has been almost 2 years since we had anything of consequence around here so I say free passes to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 in the defense of any who may be "vocally" impatient, it has been almost 2 years since we had anything of consequence around here so I say free passes to allNot just that, but in those 2 years, every place around us has had snow. Makes it all that harder to bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 It's still November.......We'll probably get out of it on December 1st. We all want snow - but come on... I think its awesome that its only November 20, its been below normal temps for a while now, there's already been two storms where snow was a potential (even if only a slight chance), we've had a mega snow for the elevations, a near miss for the eastern part of our area, and now we are looking at potential excitement 7 or so days out (and it will still be November even then). I'm like you. I'm in no hurry to get to November. When December starts, the clock starts ticking, and we all know just how fast that clock runs. Let's get all the players on the field, and then sit back and enjoy a nice, long winter (we hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 d7-8 threat still on the gfs. HP placement in se canada would imply CAD. GFS stinks at picking it up. One frame bends the 850 0c line down the br for a bit before retreating. Surface reflection shows some sort of organization but it's not really in a good spot. Keys will be strength and placement of the high to the north. Could be flakes on the front as is. Nothing terribly exciting but totally fun to track something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 d7-8 threat still on the gfs. HP placement in se canada would imply CAD. GFS stinks at picking it up. One frame bends the 850 0c line down the br for a bit before retreating. Surface reflection shows some sort of organization but it's not really in a good spot. Keys will be strength and placement of the high to the north. Could be flakes on the front as is. Nothing terribly exciting but totally fun to track something. Where is the vort? Isn't it way up near but just south of the lakes. That is a really unusual location if you are hoping for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like New England gets a nice hit. We just need the storm to track further to the southeast then swing up to give us a good storm to track in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Where is the vort? Isn't it way up near but just south of the lakes. That is a really unusual location if you are hoping for snow. Yeah it looks pretty meh. This is a type of storm we lose 2 days out let alone 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah it looks pretty meh. This is a type of storm we lose 2 days out let alone 7-8 days out. That's certainly how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 No Worries. GFS has snow for Dec 5th WED 00Z 05-DEC 1.8 -1.7 1006 84 78 0.10 542 537 WED 12Z 05-DEC -3.3 -10.9 1005 84 73 0.05 524 520 THU 00Z 06-DEC -5.3 -14.9 1010 65 75 0.01 519 512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 No Worries. GFS has snow for Dec 5th WED 00Z 05-DEC 1.8 -1.7 1006 84 78 0.10 542 537 WED 12Z 05-DEC -3.3 -10.9 1005 84 73 0.05 524 520 THU 00Z 06-DEC -5.3 -14.9 1010 65 75 0.01 519 512 that's a legit northern stream dig. those always happen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Where is the vort? Isn't it way up near but just south of the lakes. That is a really unusual location if you are hoping for snow. Yea, it's far far from anything ideal. Best case scenario would be front flakes (literally just flakes in the air) if the cad is strong enough before light rain. But it's a week away and nothing else to track so what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS had support from the Euro last night and with the pattern change I can see a little snow for someone in the mid-atlantic and northeast. Probably an over running event. 1" of snow is a blessing this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yea, it's far far from anything ideal. Best case scenario would be front flakes (literally just flakes in the air) if the cad is strong enough before light rain. But it's a week away and nothing else to track so what the heck. The vort is going to change of course. It was a much stronger vort on the euro last night it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Will be interesting to see if we can thread the needle with a weaker vortex and more favorable phase. Regardless, looks like a marginal event. It's November, take what you can get lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The vort is going to change of course. It was a much stronger vort on the euro last night it seemed. too bad we've seen the euro stumble often in this range for ec winter events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 that's a legit northern stream dig. those always happen around here. The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 too bad we've seen the euro stumble often in this range for ec winter events True but, it does have semi support from the GFS and the pattern change storm seems probable. I mean heck 1" or so in November ya i'll take it. And for you guys that would basically beat last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. The end of the run is a beauty as for as indices go. -NAO, +PNA, waiting to see AO. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfsindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 0c line is south of tampa too. That usually tells me something is wrong but I'm just a weenie. I do like the look in the pac in the lr. Upper low retrogrades near the aleutians and an ideal'ish ridge builds along the west coast all the way up to far nw canada. Hard not to like that. yeah the longer range looks decentish tho nothing appears more than temporary for now. i don't think we're getting anything (i don't count a trace as worth tracking) before at least december, so we might as well hope things align once we can actually get snow of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 yeah the longer range looks decentish tho nothing appears more than temporary for now. i don't think we're getting anything (i don't count a trace as worth tracking) before at least december, so we might as well hope things align once we can actually get snow of consequence. And it's precarious at best to think a 300hr prog in the pac is reliable but still, it seems fairly likely that we are setting up for an amplified pattern. There are signs of it starting before fantasyland. My expectations are certainly proper though. I'm really enjoying the various looks because they're the fun kind and not the kind that make you want to walk into traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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