EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 As far as teleconnections help me out here. These are best for us in winter, -NAO -AO -WPO +PNA +EPO Is this right? I know NAO, AO, PNA but, been confused on EPO and WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 As far as teleconnections help me out here. These are best for us in winter, -NAO -AO -WPO +PNA +EPO Is this right? I know NAO, AO, PNA but, been confused on EPO and WPO. -EPO, not +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Pac pattern on the euro from D6 and forward is pretty impressive in terms of dumping cold in the east....if it is right we could see some -5 to -10 departures by next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 -EPO, not +EPO So the only + we want is +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 So the only + we want is +PNA? +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 +SN Haha true that. +TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 +SN or +TSSN I didn't look at the euro but the gfs wasn't cold for the east. Not warm or anything but it really pushed the cold airmass all the way down to almost mexico before starting to move it east. Does the euro even show the big cold dump in the west or is it more aligned to drop out of the northern plains and move east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 or +TSSN I didn't look at the euro but the gfs wasn't cold for the east. Not warm or anything but it really pushed the cold airmass all the way down to almost mexico before starting to move it east. Does the euro even show the big cold dump in the west or is it more aligned to drop out of the northern plains and move east? Euro has massive lake cutter 186 onward. Hate those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Euro has massive lake cutter 186 onward. Hate those things. Boy it sure does. Looks sub 990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Boy it sure does. Looks sub 990. Kinda typical for this time of year, lets have one or two of those then move it along the East Coast wheel house please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Pac pattern on the euro from D6 and forward is pretty impressive in terms of dumping cold in the east....if it is right we could see some -5 to -10 departures by next weekend Euro has massive lake cutter 186 onward. Hate those things. Boy it sure does. Looks sub 990. so much for our 2-3 day cold shot...we hit 70 in advance of the lakes cutter next wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 so much for our 2-3 day cold shot...we hit 70 in advance of the lakes cutter next wednesday If it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 If it's right. to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I am hearing the euro ens much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view Not sure that's possible. Seems to me to be a very complex process forecasting that far ahead. Reading from all of the pros and other really good posters on this forum has taught me two things. One, use ensembles in the long range, and two, there are large scale features that play a large part in sensible weather in the long range. Also, I've read that models have difficulty prior to pattern changes. I know the GFS seems to be a little back and forth in the long range lately, so I guess 7+ day forecasts have to be viewed cautiously especially if only looking at one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view They shouldn't be consistent out there in the days 6 plus range. It's not the models it's the atmosphere....chaos rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 They shouldn't be consistent out there in the days 6 plus range. It's not the models it's the atmosphere....chaos rules Except for MA heat. They are ridiculously good at nailing that. lol I do think models get a bad rap in the LR. It's just not possible yet. One tiny little difference at day 2 can = large swings down the road. I think models are pretty amazing when you think about something as complicated as the atmosphere can be simulated so well today. They are really really new compared to the science as a whole. It will be interesting to see how good they are in 20 years. In 50 years they will be controlling the atmosphere so they will always be right. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I am hearing the euro ens much colder? Go look for yourself http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 DT storm incoming on 00zgfs. Maybe I shouldn't have trolled him on facebook, but that just makes it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 DT storm incoming on 00zgfs. Maybe I shouldn't have trolled him on facebook, but that just makes it funny. How the GFS is cold this run is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 EURO trolls hard tonight. Cancels GLC and makes it an east coast bomb. Ok not a "bomb" But it is nice. A little rain to maybe a few inches of snow. Not bad for late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 12z lake cutter is now a 00z snowstorm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 12z lake cutter is now a 00z snowstorm for DC a few inches is a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 12z lake cutter is now a 00z snowstorm for DC Congrats on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 3 a few inches is a snowstorm? 3-6 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 3 3-6 lol Where? in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Where? in PA? lol, the euro ens mean would suggest farther north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Last 2 runs of the gfs like the idea of a wave or slug riding up the boundary from the gulf. These types of setups really aren't that complicated and if it were deeper into the season it would be more interesting. I swear I remember getting more 1-3's - 2-4's from a shot of overrunning along a stalled boundary while growing up. Sometimes snow, sometimes rain, and sometimes ice. Now it seems like we need a perfect coastal setup or a properly placed clipper or we get nothing. Am I wrong? Anyways, here's hr 189 from 0z and 183 from 6z. Not super interesting or anything but this kind of thing can be 1-3 with the right thermal profile. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Last 2 runs of the gfs like the idea of a wave or slug riding up the boundary from the gulf. These types of setups really aren't that complicated and if it were deeper into the season it would be more interesting. I swear I remember getting more 1-3's - 2-4's from a shot of overrunning along a stalled boundary while growing up. Sometimes snow, sometimes rain, and sometimes ice. Now it seems like we need a perfect coastal setup or a properly placed clipper or we get nothing. Am I wrong? Anyways, here's hr 189 from 0z and 183 from 6z. Not super interesting or anything but this kind of thing can be 1-3 with the right thermal profile. 0z 6z The overrunning component of storms like this always start to back off as we get closer in favor of some trash coastal that forms too far north or east for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The overrunning component of storms like this always start to back off as we get closer in favor of some trash coastal that forms too far north or east for us. You're prob right. Do you agree with my obs about having fewer overrunning events? It seems like much fewer the last 5+ years but I may be mashing up a lot of childhood memories of the 70's and 80's. They are the simple ones. No nail biting, perfect timing, or anything like that. Just watch radar push the slug right through and then go sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.