BristowWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Euro has chilled us for Thanksgiving. 55 for the high? Great. I hate a warm Thanksgiving. Can we get some clouds and wind thrown in with that 55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Hello beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Hello beautiful. I'm headed to CO and then MN next week. Giggity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 DT now sharing potential storminess around the 28th! I expect snow to be well North and west, but pattern is changing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT now sharing potential storminess around the 28th! I expect snow to be well North and west, but pattern is changing! I sure don't see it not that any forecast at that range has any skill whatsoever in the dailies. The biggest potential for storminess in over the Pac NW during that time range as the big positive anomaly near the Bering Sea teleconnects to heavier than normal precipitation across that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I sure don't see it not that any forecast at that range has any skill whatsoever in the dailies. The biggest potential for storminess in over the Pac NW during that time range as the big positive anomaly near the Bering Sea teleconnects to heavier than normal precipitation across that region. Ya, he was basing it on a Negative tilt trough on yesterday's 12 EC Ensemble model runs. Specifically this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 So he's calling for snow from that system on the 28th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Ya, he was basing it on a Negative tilt trough on yesterday's 12 EC Ensemble model runs. Specifically this map: That looks more like a lakes runner that might become a miller b north of us but basing such a forecast on one euro ens mean is pretty foolish. I think the big story in that time range will be in the pac nw. Somewhere around the end of the month or beginning of the new one someone there is likely to get a big slug of precip. In the east there is way more going on but then Dave likes going for the jugular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 That looks more like a lakes runner that might become a miller b north of us but basing such a forecast on one euro ens mean is pretty foolish. I think the big story in that time range will be in the pac nw. Somewhere around the end of the month or beginning of the new one someone there is likely to get a big slug of precip. In the east there is way more going on but then Dave likes going for the jugular. Wes, how would you rate DT as a forecaster overall? He is now quite bullish on this winter. Looking for above average snow and below normal temps. Do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS looking interesting through 189 hrs maybe an overrunning type thingy in the makings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 At the very least, the GFS is moving toward at least something of "weather" interest in the 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS looking interesting through 189 hrs maybe an overrunning type thingy in the makings At the very least, the GFS is moving toward at least something of "weather" interest in the 7-10 day period. Does look interesting...sneaky high pressing down. Of course, it goes to crap after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I started working through the snowfall data that zwyts posted. I pulled the top 15 and bottom 15 for comparison to see if anything stood out. Much of the data points towards things we already know but it's still fun to look and compare. Here's the gridded index data: As Wes has done an excellent job explaining already, it's clear that the AO is more important than the NAO. The short story is that if the AO isn't favorable take any modeled snow with a grain of salt. The data also shows that we need the PNA to be + if we want big snow and if we don't have some sort of decent NAO then we need the PNA to do its part. Most of this has been pointed out multiple times over the years. Also, big -NAOs are not good for us. Too much negative nao and everything is pushed south. One of the trends that I saw with the AO is that more often than not the snows happen when the AO is falling leading up to the event. I pulled the H5 anom maps for the day of each group of storms. Here's the 10+" storms: And this is the group of 5-6" storms: There is a noticeable difference in heights over AK between the 2 sets of data. Not sure if it's a blip or something meaningful. It seems that higher heights over AK teleconnect to smaller storms when we have a -ao/-nao combo. I also put together animations of NH h5 anoms for the 6 days prior to the storm. Pretty cool to look at but it really doesn't show anything that we didn't already know: 10"+ 5-6" storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Thanks...nicely done....you can see the more pronounced split flow in the bigger storms...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 PDO is starting to look unimpressive again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Does look interesting...sneaky high pressing down. Of course, it goes to crap after truncation. the 18z run can't come fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 PDO is starting to look unimpressive again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nice work Bob. The 11/11/87 storm is such a statistical annomaly. +AO, +NAO and climo were all against it. Yet we still got 11.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS looking interesting through 189 hrs maybe an overrunning type thingy in the makings What am I missing? Looks like a toasty lake cutter to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Thanks...nicely done....you can see the more pronounced split flow in the bigger storms...... Split flow / open gulf shows up even better when you run just a couple of storms in the group instead of the 15 in the animations. I really like how the animations show consistent higher heights near greenland the entire 7 panels. Also a nice 50/50 sig shows up. It's nothing that we don't already know but it is a nice way of looking at things (and something to keep in mind when models are honking MA snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nice work Bob. The 11/11/87 storm is such a statistical annomaly. +AO, +NAO and climo were all against it. Yet we still got 11.5". I saw that too and had to triple check the dates to make sure I didn't have a typo. It's the proverbial needle threading I suppose. We see the ingredients on the table often in craptastic patterns but they rarely pan out. Every once in a while though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What am I missing? Looks like a toasty lake cutter to me? the run was only out to 189 hrs and it showed some promise of at least winter precip even so, it may be something to keep an eye on especially since it's boring wx-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 the run was only out to 189 hrs and it showed some promise of at least winter precip even so, it may be something to keep an eye on especially since it's boring wx-wise Gotcha. Thanks. Honestly thought I was not seeing something in the pattern. Was not bashing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 ENS not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is nice to look at to help keep 2011 paranoia at bay. Much different look over AK and Russia this year. Not saying that I think everything looks great so far because we need some more help but at the very least see consistent high heights this year over AK and Russia is a massive improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Gotcha. Thanks. Honestly thought I was not seeing something in the pattern. Was not bashing you. oh, you mean you were looking at it rationally....you're in the wrong place, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very nice work, Bob! What jumped out to me in the 10"+ animation is the Aleutian block is there at the beginning, but then a strong Aleutian/North Pac low develops, which serves to pump up the PNA and give us that west coast ridging as the storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is nice to look at to help keep 2011 paranoia at bay. Much different look over AK and Russia this year. Not saying that I think everything looks great so far because we need some more help but at the very least see consistent high heights this year over AK and Russia is a massive improvement. yeah, this year looks and "feels" nothing like last year but the question remains: can we get the same seasonal snow/temp numbers by a different method? if any location can do it, you know it's gunna' be the the MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think the pattern is ho hum on the gfs. The pac changes a bit and spikes a really sharp h5 ridge off the ca coast but the main effect is a really strong and cold high pushes south into the intermountain west. Naturally there is ridging out in front so we're pretty boring along the ec. No big deal really because that type of pattern is totally normal. Just not conducive for cold here. Just speculating here but you always wonder how things evolve with that kind of ridging. Almost looks omega'ish. Split flow coming? STJ? lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F19%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NPAC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+Pacific+-+Western+US+Alaska+Western+Canada+Hawaii+North+Pacific+Ocean&prevArea=NPAC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Bob, really nice work. YOu can see how important the southern stream is to the really big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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