Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Thanks...nicely done....you can see the more pronounced split flow in the bigger storms...... Split flow / open gulf shows up even better when you run just a couple of storms in the group instead of the 15 in the animations. I really like how the animations show consistent higher heights near greenland the entire 7 panels. Also a nice 50/50 sig shows up. It's nothing that we don't already know but it is a nice way of looking at things (and something to keep in mind when models are honking MA snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nice work Bob. The 11/11/87 storm is such a statistical annomaly. +AO, +NAO and climo were all against it. Yet we still got 11.5". I saw that too and had to triple check the dates to make sure I didn't have a typo. It's the proverbial needle threading I suppose. We see the ingredients on the table often in craptastic patterns but they rarely pan out. Every once in a while though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What am I missing? Looks like a toasty lake cutter to me? the run was only out to 189 hrs and it showed some promise of at least winter precip even so, it may be something to keep an eye on especially since it's boring wx-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 the run was only out to 189 hrs and it showed some promise of at least winter precip even so, it may be something to keep an eye on especially since it's boring wx-wise Gotcha. Thanks. Honestly thought I was not seeing something in the pattern. Was not bashing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 ENS not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is nice to look at to help keep 2011 paranoia at bay. Much different look over AK and Russia this year. Not saying that I think everything looks great so far because we need some more help but at the very least see consistent high heights this year over AK and Russia is a massive improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Gotcha. Thanks. Honestly thought I was not seeing something in the pattern. Was not bashing you. oh, you mean you were looking at it rationally....you're in the wrong place, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very nice work, Bob! What jumped out to me in the 10"+ animation is the Aleutian block is there at the beginning, but then a strong Aleutian/North Pac low develops, which serves to pump up the PNA and give us that west coast ridging as the storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is nice to look at to help keep 2011 paranoia at bay. Much different look over AK and Russia this year. Not saying that I think everything looks great so far because we need some more help but at the very least see consistent high heights this year over AK and Russia is a massive improvement. yeah, this year looks and "feels" nothing like last year but the question remains: can we get the same seasonal snow/temp numbers by a different method? if any location can do it, you know it's gunna' be the the MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think the pattern is ho hum on the gfs. The pac changes a bit and spikes a really sharp h5 ridge off the ca coast but the main effect is a really strong and cold high pushes south into the intermountain west. Naturally there is ridging out in front so we're pretty boring along the ec. No big deal really because that type of pattern is totally normal. Just not conducive for cold here. Just speculating here but you always wonder how things evolve with that kind of ridging. Almost looks omega'ish. Split flow coming? STJ? lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F19%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NPAC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+Pacific+-+Western+US+Alaska+Western+Canada+Hawaii+North+Pacific+Ocean&prevArea=NPAC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Bob, really nice work. YOu can see how important the southern stream is to the really big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 As far as teleconnections help me out here. These are best for us in winter, -NAO -AO -WPO +PNA +EPO Is this right? I know NAO, AO, PNA but, been confused on EPO and WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 As far as teleconnections help me out here. These are best for us in winter, -NAO -AO -WPO +PNA +EPO Is this right? I know NAO, AO, PNA but, been confused on EPO and WPO. -EPO, not +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 -EPO, not +EPO So the only + we want is +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 +SN Haha true that. +TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 +SN or +TSSN I didn't look at the euro but the gfs wasn't cold for the east. Not warm or anything but it really pushed the cold airmass all the way down to almost mexico before starting to move it east. Does the euro even show the big cold dump in the west or is it more aligned to drop out of the northern plains and move east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 or +TSSN I didn't look at the euro but the gfs wasn't cold for the east. Not warm or anything but it really pushed the cold airmass all the way down to almost mexico before starting to move it east. Does the euro even show the big cold dump in the west or is it more aligned to drop out of the northern plains and move east? Euro has massive lake cutter 186 onward. Hate those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Euro has massive lake cutter 186 onward. Hate those things. Boy it sure does. Looks sub 990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Boy it sure does. Looks sub 990. Kinda typical for this time of year, lets have one or two of those then move it along the East Coast wheel house please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 so much for our 2-3 day cold shot...we hit 70 in advance of the lakes cutter next wednesday If it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 If it's right. to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I am hearing the euro ens much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view Not sure that's possible. Seems to me to be a very complex process forecasting that far ahead. Reading from all of the pros and other really good posters on this forum has taught me two things. One, use ensembles in the long range, and two, there are large scale features that play a large part in sensible weather in the long range. Also, I've read that models have difficulty prior to pattern changes. I know the GFS seems to be a little back and forth in the long range lately, so I guess 7+ day forecasts have to be viewed cautiously especially if only looking at one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 to me its a shame that you cant have models that, in general, have the same answer so that if you look at them , you dont have to question, ""is that right''. Just my point of view They shouldn't be consistent out there in the days 6 plus range. It's not the models it's the atmosphere....chaos rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 They shouldn't be consistent out there in the days 6 plus range. It's not the models it's the atmosphere....chaos rules Except for MA heat. They are ridiculously good at nailing that. lol I do think models get a bad rap in the LR. It's just not possible yet. One tiny little difference at day 2 can = large swings down the road. I think models are pretty amazing when you think about something as complicated as the atmosphere can be simulated so well today. They are really really new compared to the science as a whole. It will be interesting to see how good they are in 20 years. In 50 years they will be controlling the atmosphere so they will always be right. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I am hearing the euro ens much colder? Go look for yourself http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 DT storm incoming on 00zgfs. Maybe I shouldn't have trolled him on facebook, but that just makes it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 DT storm incoming on 00zgfs. Maybe I shouldn't have trolled him on facebook, but that just makes it funny. How the GFS is cold this run is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 EURO trolls hard tonight. Cancels GLC and makes it an east coast bomb. Ok not a "bomb" But it is nice. A little rain to maybe a few inches of snow. Not bad for late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 12z lake cutter is now a 00z snowstorm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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