November Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

Another thing that stinks a bit for us down here is that there is a good bit of cold air in canada and almost the entire country is snow covered now but ripples in the flow aren't going to have enough oomph transport it down this far south. We may end up seeing some decent cold invade the N plains and propegate ese instead of se with no mechanism to push it down here.

The short version of what I'm trying to say is the dreaded gradient may rear it's head. And yea, you can say climo favors up north first anyway so it's no biggie but once we roll into December our climo says we can get some good and lasting cold shots if we can get some ridging up around GL. We don't even need arctic air right now. Northern and western Canada (areas like Edmonton and Yellowknife) are pretty cold. Not crazy but below normal for sure.

One of the things we battle down here is that continental air masses aren't always cold enough even when the pattern is favorable because it's warmer than normal in Canada. Not the case right now and for the foreseeable future.

[Yeoman]

Based on the GFS? Raleigh's plots show sub-60F temps at 18z, and even adding a few degrees with downsloping winds probably means low 60s for DCA and near 60 for the burbs.

Unless it's below 40 does it really matter?

[usedtobe]

I see what you did there.

Sneaky meteorologist.

lol, you caught me. My article wasn't anti-snow so you should be semi happy. I sure hope we have some nice storms to track, after all, you need to re-earn you moniker. Last winter, you and I both failed.

[Yeoman]

lol, you caught me. My article wasn't anti-snow so you should be semi happy. I sure hope we have some nice storms to track, after all, you need to re-earn you moniker. Last winter, you and I both failed.

Excellent article, Wes.. thanks

[marked8]

I hope this is accurate:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/signs-of-a-cold-start-to-december-in-the-east/1619732

[Bob Chill]

I hope this is accurate:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/signs-of-a-cold-start-to-december-in-the-east/1619732

If it is it was by accident.

[Kevin Druff]

If it is it was by accident.

No, I think Brett Anderson does a pretty good job at "just the facts", especially when he's giving his read of the Euro weeklies, which he does on a regular basis.

[Deck Pic]

Euro (mid 60s) and GFS (60) still on the warm train for Next wed-Fri/saturday

[Bob Chill]

Latest GFS is continuing to make things interesting. The goa low weakens and moves north allowing heights to build in the sw. Flow starts to buckle and the vortex in canada moves to near hudson bay. The NAO is also on the way down but it doesn't look like ridging near gl is ideal. A bit east but who cares because it's a bit out there in d8+ range but still, this is pretty good to see.

ANYTHING but raging pac zonal with no prospects beats last year.

[Deck Pic]

Euro (mid 60s) and GFS (60) still on the warm train for Next wed-Fri/saturday

Average high on 11/22 is 55....65 wouldn't be very anomalous....I'll go 70 during one of the days late next week

[mattie g]

Euro (mid 60s) and GFS (60) still on the warm train for Next wed-Fri/saturday

And warm down south.

Nice.

[Bob Chill]

Not much of a storm signal on the GFS in the LR (didn't expect one) but it's quite chilly. Highs in the 30's for days. Local ski areas would be able to start pasting the slopes. Midlo might get his first significant snow of the season in his front yard too.

[WxUSAF]

12z GFS takes away zwyts' Turkey Day shirtless football weather. Cold advecting with seasonable highs at best. Gets really close to unleashing the arctic hounds on us in the Day 11-15 range, but doesn't quite get there even though it looks quite cold.

[WxUSAF]

Pretty solid Day 11-15 GFS ensemble mean chart. That's a bit more of a N.Atlantic ridge than a true -NAO block, but the NAO will technically be negative in that pattern. Get the trough off the West Coast to weaken or retrograde out into the Pacific and that would be a good looking pattern for us.

[H2O]

12z GFS takes away zwyts' Turkey Day shirtless football weather. Cold advecting with seasonable highs at best. Gets really close to unleashing the arctic hounds on us in the Day 11-15 range, but doesn't quite get there even though it looks quite cold.

Good news.

[Ian]

I see Jay Hatem weather calling for a Dec 5 snowstorm.

I predict cold and dry.

[Deck Pic]

12z GFS takes away zwyts' Turkey Day shirtless football weather. Cold advecting with seasonable highs at best. Gets really close to unleashing the arctic hounds on us in the Day 11-15 range, but doesn't quite get there even though it looks quite cold.

MOS is 59/60 for THU/FRI

[WxUSAF]

MOS is 59/60 for THU/FRI

Raleigh's 2m temp maps look colder. Just by interpolating distances between the 50F and 60F isotherms on the 18z maps and looking at the pattern (downsloping, but cold advecting winds on Thursday), I'd say low 50s for the burbs and maybe mid 50s for the downtown areas of DC/Balt on Thursday and 3-5F colder on Friday.

I'd love temps near 50 for those days. Warm enough to get the kiddies running around outside, but chilly enough to feel like late November.

[Deck Pic]

Raleigh's 2m temp maps look colder. Just by interpolating distances between the 50F and 60F isotherms on the 18z maps and looking at the pattern (downsloping, but cold advecting winds on Thursday), I'd say low 50s for the burbs and maybe mid 50s for the downtown areas of DC/Balt on Thursday and 3-5F colder on Friday.

I'd love temps near 50 for those days. Warm enough to get the kiddies running around outside, but chilly enough to feel like late November.

you mean 12Z?..I want it to torch like 2003...wasting a cold pattern in late November sucks

[Yeoman]

I've upped my El Nino chances to 23.9%

[Deck Pic]

I've upped my El Nino chances to 23.9%

It is torching, but Wes thinks it is temporary

[WxUSAF]

you mean 12Z?..

Sorry, that was confusing. 12z run, but 18z maps for those days (i.e., 11222012 1800z).

I want it to torch like 2003...wasting a cold pattern in late November sucks

I see that point. At this point, I'd say we have a 60/40 shot or better at finishing BN for this month and December certainly looks like it could start quite cold if we buy the pattern seen in the GFS and Euro weeklies. Hard to keep a cold/snowy pattern going for weeks or months on end. But, I don't think the pattern the next 2 weeks is really a cold one, just a seasonable one until at least the 27th-28th. The real cold pattern looks like it starts setting up around the beginning of the month. Hopefully we can get a stable cold pattern for much of December, a January thaw/reload early in the year, and then finish the winter out strong.

[Deck Pic]

Sorry, that was confusing. 12z run, but 18z maps for those days (i.e., 11122012 1800z).

I see that point. At this point, I'd say we have a 60/40 shot or better at finishing BN for this month and December certainly looks like it could start quite cold if we buy the pattern seen in the GFS and Euro weeklies. Hard to keep a cold/snowy pattern going for weeks or months on end. But, I don't think the pattern the next 2 weeks is really a cold one, just a seasonable one until at least the 27th-28th. The real cold pattern looks like it starts setting up around the beginning of the month. Hopefully we can get a stable cold pattern for much of December, a January thaw/reload early in the year, and then finish the winter out strong.

Hopefully we reload around 12/20...the 1/1-1/15 torch is played out....that is fertile territory and we punt it almost every winter...we have had a couple minor events that were decent, but haven't gotten a 3"+ snow since Jan 2003....and I think 1999 and 1996 were the last 2 before that....

[Bob Chill]

I see that point. At this point, I'd say we have a 60/40 shot or better at finishing BN for this month and December certainly looks like it could start quite cold if we buy the pattern seen in the GFS and Euro weeklies. Hard to keep a cold/snowy pattern going for weeks or months on end. But, I don't think the pattern the next 2 weeks is really a cold one, just a seasonable one until at least the 27th-28th. The real cold pattern looks like it starts setting up around the beginning of the month. Hopefully we can get a stable cold pattern for much of December, a January thaw/reload early in the year, and then finish the winter out strong.

I like the way you think. And to be honest, my only hope/wish is that we don't get stuck in a tough to break crappy pattern. Normal swings are fine. Winter in these parts isn't supposed to be cold start to finish. Just please don't let the AO go through the roof, the SE ridge build, or let that weenie hope killing vortex set up shop near AK. That's all. Just don't let a 4+ week pattern set up and steal 1/3 of our winter with zero prospects. That's not too much to ask is it?

Can someone post or pm me a list of 6"+ storms in DCA since 1960 or so? Will posted a sweet h5 anom map for all the big storms in NE and KU's. It was really cool to see. I want to do the same for DC but I want to do it for the day of, 3 days prior, and 1 week prior to the storms. I'll post the maps after I'm done. Should be a decent tool to use when things get interesting.

[MillzPirate]

El Nino is smoking right now

[Deck Pic]

I like the way you think. And to be honest, my only hope/wish is that we don't get stuck in a tough to break crappy pattern. Normal swings are fine. Winter in these parts isn't supposed to be cold start to finish. Just please don't let the AO go through the roof, the SE ridge build, or let that weenie hope killing vortex set up shop near AK. That's all. Just don't let a 4+ week pattern set up and steal 1/3 of our winter with zero prospects. That's not too much to ask is it?

Can someone post or pm me a list of 6"+ storms in DCA since 1960 or so? Will posted a sweet h5 anom map for all the big storms in NE and KU's. It was really cool to see. I want to do the same for DC but I want to do it for the day of, 3 days prior, and 1 week prior to the storms. I'll post the maps after I'm done. Should be a decent tool to use when things get interesting.

we are OK for now....There will likely be a Bering Sea ridge/block...That isn't great for us, but way better than a vortex..I think that is a fairly stable/repetitive feature, but I could be wrong

[Deck Pic]

12z Euro is upper 50s for Thanksgiving...pretty much on the same page as GFS

[Bob Chill]

we are OK for now....There will likely be a Bering Sea ridge/block...That isn't great for us, but way better than a vortex..I think that is a fairly stable/repetitive feature, but I could be wrong

Can't help but to get paranoid right? I've never really paid that much attention to a feature like that until last year. I had no idea it could be so damaging to us downstream.

And I agree, the ridging in some form or another is probably stable enough to not worry about everything going to he!! again. I don't know the odds or anything but I would have to guess that it would be very unusual to have that same feature 2 years in a row. We'll find a new and different way to get screwed instead.

[Deck Pic]

Can't help but to get paranoid right? I've never really paid that much attention to a feature like that until last year. I had no idea it could be so damaging to us downstream.

And I agree, the ridging in some form or another is probably stable enough to not worry about everything going to he!! again. I don't know the odds or anything but I would have to guess that it would be very unusual to have that same feature 2 years in a row. We'll find a new and different way to get screwed instead.

well...we don't look like this...I think the die was cast by this time in the years with bad decembers (2001,2006,2011)..I think if Wes and Orh were around today 11 years ago, they would cancel December....yet a lot of people went cold that winter....

[ORH_wxman]

well...we don't look like this...I think the die was cast by this time in the years with bad decembers (2001,2006,2011)..I think if Wes and Orh were around today 11 years ago, they would cancel December....yet a lot of people went cold that winter....

The AK/Bering ridge is quite stable on the Euro weeklies for several runs now including last night's runs FWIW. Euro SIPS seasonal model also liked the idea. The stratosphere isn't the greatest but its not like last year either. The siberian snow cover probably is helping out.

Last year there were some hideous signs around this time...the hope was that we were going to break out of it by New Years and into January, but we never did. The Euro weeklies last year (and then the ensembles followed shortly after in late November) showed a Dec 2001 pattern. That AK vortex basically didn't move for 17 months....it weakened a bit in fall of 2011, but when it restrengthened late, it was goodnight. I think in retrospect, hoping for a January turn-around was not very feesible. We did get some good blocking late that month into Feb but it was wrong for us. Hindsight is always 20/20 of course.

The huge wildcard is going to be the NAO going into December...there are a lot of mixed signals on that. The Bering ridge I think is extremely likely to be there in the means.