EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's the JI storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's the JI storm. its rather interesting that newmax, a publication I receive on email, has mentioned this storm being referenced by a met on TV. mdsnowlover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 With the NAO and AO tanking and MJO looking to go to phase one, the storm signal is there. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I've been really paying attention the the mets in the SNE forum. Very good stuff. I think I have a full grasp about the ridging near AK and the downstream affects. This map really helps visualize how it helps us: It's easy to see how the flow buckles downstream and the placement of the features. Replace the ridging over AK with a big nasty vortex and you can see why most of last year was dominated by either flat pac zonal or ridging in east. Of course the ridge near AK can't do it all. It just increases potential. Doesn't mean there will be blocking in place. It's awful tough to time something with an amplified pattern when it's progressive. But without some sort of amplification we usually stand little chance at snow in these parts so at the very least we could see windows of opportunity if this pattern holds in Dec. The stj is a huge wildcard this winter too. Will the gulf open for business or will it all be NS stuff? If I had to take a wag I would say the stj is not going to be a friend. Our Nino fizzled. As soon as the Nino clearly showed virtually no chance of weak/mod status I ruled out the juicy southern stream having it's way with us. Someone please correct me if this is flawed thinking though. Good post. I don't know if someone more knowledgeable will chime in but given a lack of STJ help I would think that we would see more miller Bs than As. I'm sure that someone will tell me I'm wrong but I can see a NS dominated season this go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Within the next day or two, I'll have a post on CWG on big snow versus little snow years and the importance of the AO if you want a 20 inch plus year. The stats are pretty striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Within the next day or two, I'll have a post on CWG on big snow versus little snow years and the importance of the AO if you want a 20 inch plus year. The stats are pretty striking. It better be good news or Randy will beat you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It better be good news or Randy will beat you up. Already did it once. But this time, I'll use my fists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It better be good news or Randy will beat you up. I'll let you judge. I'm not scared of tracker....he'll be too busy trolling on the PR forum to even read an article that isn't an explicit snow forecast. He likes explicit, butt., not articles about what you need to get a snowy season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I'll let you judge. I'm not scared of tracker....he'll be too busy trolling on the PR forum to even read an article that isn't an explicit snow forecast. He likes explicit, butt., not articles about what you need to get a snowy season. LOL Wes is a hardcore troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Models definitely backed off on amplifying the pattern on the EC anytime soon . Next week to 10 days looks really boring. Pretty much zonal and decent pac onslaught out west. Pretty common pattern this time of year so no biggie. Pretty good agreement on negative height anoms @ h5 in the NW and building heights in the eastern half of the US in day 7-10 range. All eyes on Dec of course. I wouldn't be surprised if the month starts off boring either. But that's normal too so no reason to freak out or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 LOL Wes is a hardcore troll. Not really, I only troll people who I know and like well enough that they won't get mad at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Not really, I only troll people who I know and like well enough that they won't get mad at me. Wes, you know the only time we get mad at you is when you discount the blizzard on the 240 hour gfs with no blocking. Or when you say it isn't going to snow in general. Your winter popularity poll from 09-10 to 11-12 looks like the Jan-Mar 2009 dow chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Wes, you know the only time we get mad at you is when you discount the blizzard on the 240 hour gfs with no blocking. Or when you say it isn't going to snow in general. Your winter popularity poll from 09-10 to 11-12 looks like the Jan-Mar 2009 dow chart. Last winter, I was hated though BB being around saved my bacon as people could vent on him. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get to the median this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Last winter, I was hated though BB being around saved my bacon as people could vent on him. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get to the median this year. This is what I read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Last winter, I was hated though BB being around saved my bacon as people could vent on him. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get to the median this year. Seems many of us feel the same way. No dominating signal (so far) is actually a relief. With our active winter period only being 12 weeks it stinks getting stuck in a 4+ week pattern. Seems like it happens more often than not one way or another. Normal all the way around would actually look and feel like a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 From HM in the NE thread, this does not sound great: Let me be clear. Assuming the Tropical Pacific goes as planned, we should have a possible widespread wintry event in early December for a NAO phase shift as several of us have been suggesting for a while. To me, this doesn't look like a KU storm ( of course, everything lately has been historic so maybe I'm underselling it lol) and may favor eastern New England more than the Mid Atlantic. I see the pattern going from very El Niño looking to La Niña looking later in December, which will favor snowfalls in more of New England and the interior / Lakes / Ohio Valley (Miller A/B and . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 70 for Thanksgiving?...so much for the brutal cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Welp all eyes on January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 70 for Thanksgiving?...so much for the brutal cold Based on the GFS? Raleigh's plots show sub-60F temps at 18z, and even adding a few degrees with downsloping winds probably means low 60s for DCA and near 60 for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 From HM in the NE thread, this does not sound great: Let me be clear. Assuming the Tropical Pacific goes as planned, we should have a possible widespread wintry event in early December for a NAO phase shift as several of us have been suggesting for a while. To me, this doesn't look like a KU storm ( of course, everything lately has been historic so maybe I'm underselling it lol) and may favor eastern New England more than the Mid Atlantic. I see the pattern going from very El Niño looking to La Niña looking later in December, which will favor snowfalls in more of New England and the interior / Lakes / Ohio Valley (Miller A/B and . 12z GFS. Nice -NAO....need some Pacific help. PV seems to wanna split too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Based on the GFS? Raleigh's plots show sub-60F temps at 18z, and even adding a few degrees with downsloping winds probably means low 60s for DCA and near 60 for the burbs. And 60's around that time aren't that uncommon. In 2009, it was in the low 60's on the Sunday after Thanksgiving and I was shoveling snow the next Saturday. Edit: We should also remember that this is the earliest Thanksgiving that you can have. Dec 5 is nearly two full weeks after Thanksgiving this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Based on the GFS? Raleigh's plots show sub-60F temps at 18z, and even adding a few degrees with downsloping winds probably means low 60s for DCA and near 60 for the burbs. euro...though I am exaggerating...shows low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I like the 360 GFS panel the best. -16 850s in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I like the 360 GFS panel the best. -16 850s in November. 360 shows LEGIT cross-polar flow. Absolute icebox for central Canada and damn cold for us as well. Roid raging -NAO. I'm eagerly refreshing waiting for the ensemble mean to get that far out. Through 264, GFS ensemble mean really likes the Aleutian ridge extending up into the Arctic Ocean. Looks very robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Pretty good look on the GFS ensemble mean in the way-long range. That Aleutian ridge goes absolutely nowhere the whole time and even the mean shows some ridging into Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Pretty good look on the GFS ensemble mean in the way-long range. That Aleutian ridge goes absolutely nowhere the whole time and even the mean shows some ridging into Greenland. That would be nice to see verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Pretty good look on the GFS ensemble mean in the way-long range. That Aleutian ridge goes absolutely nowhere the whole time and even the mean shows some ridging into Greenland. I saw that on the run too but was afraid to post anything after day 10. lol I compared the 6-10 day h5 anoms with the 0z gfs and euro. Pretty good agreement. The ull off the pac nw coast really sits and spins for the next 6-8 days before finally breaking down and coming ashore. What happens after is tough to say. Big time pac zonal look for a bit post day 8 before anything amplifies. I've been sucked into the LR way too many times when we are waiting for the nao to tank and get things to buckle. It seems like it always takes quite a bit longer that when it's first picked up. I have a hunch that this will be no exception. The weenie side of me wants a ridge and heights to build into greenland yesterday of course but as nice as the lr gfs looks I think patience is going to be needed (and going to wear thin) until things really start to show promise. Here's the euro from last night: And here's the GFS from last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yeah, the downside to the GEFS is that the trough off the west coast also doesn't seem to want to leave, even though it doesn't look as robust/strong as the Aleutian ridge. Keeps things fairly zonal across the CONUS. But, with that ridge and a very cold Canada, that would probably set up a wicked gradient. Given climo, we'd probably end up near, but on the warmer side of the gradient. A -NAO would help in that situation and probably push the gradient to our south. At this point in the year, I think keeping the PV unstable and off the pole and Canada cold is very helpful going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I'll let you judge. I'm not scared of tracker....he'll be too busy trolling on the PR forum to even read an article that isn't an explicit snow forecast. He likes explicit, butt., not articles about what you need to get a snowy season. I see what you did there. Sneaky meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I see what you did there. Sneaky meteorologist. You have to give it to him that was very funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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