J.Mike Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If zywts says it will snow, then I'll pay attention. That's my MO for this upcoming winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Euro says please hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I suppose we could always thread the needle in the 10-15 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm worried about a vortex in the EPO region for the 2nd half of DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm worried about a vortex in the EPO region for the 2nd half of DEC I think that's a legit concern. They CFS2 keeps it in place and us with a warm look through week 3 but then has low heights up over Ak but high heights along our west coast on week 4 , I think that is a rather unusual set up but by then has teh atlantic looking pretty good giving us below normal heights and temps. I'm not sure how realistic it is but I think it will be more right than wrong for the next couple of weeks. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121128.z500.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm worried about a vortex in the EPO region for the 2nd half of DEC Getting a good pattern for snow in this area is like the golf swing... 100 moving parts, and any one of them can screw it all up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Part of the question about whether the decent stretch of hl blocking during Nov would last into early dec has been answered. I still believe the odds of a +ao/nao winter are lower than the opposite but it just goes to show no matter how much you think you know...you never know. Luckily I'm just a weenie so it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Out in wonderland (mid Dec.), 12z GFS shows a more stormy, cooler pattern at least for the next six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Is the Euro ens 10 day anomaly pattern really that bad? It doesn't look that bad. Get a little ridge on the west coast an I'd think we might have a shot at something. If this is wrong somebody give me some insight. It may not seem like it, but I do come here to learn. BTW, anybody know a site where I can access climate data like a/b normal temps for the past few months to KOKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Is the Euro ens 10 day anomaly pattern really that bad? It doesn't look that bad. Get a little ridge on the west coast an I'd think we might have a shot at something. If this is wrong somebody give me some insight. It may not seem like it, but I do come here to learn. BTW, anybody know a site where I can access climate data like a/b normal temps for the past few months to KOKV? it's not very good....low heights in the PNA/EPO regions..... Ridge over the maritimes......the -AO probably keeps it from being a torch pattern...so an equal chances kind of pattern in the 8-14 day range....which isn't great when our average highs are near 50.....there will probably be modified cold air that gets here for a 1-3 days, but likely dry here with a dominant northern stream....the fear is that we get a vortex in the EPO region north of AK in a couple weeks, which if strong would be a disaster pattern.....there is nothing to be too optimistic about over the next 2 weeks which is ok...this is unproductive territory climatologically..I'm already looking ahead to 12/15 and beyond.....the 1st half of DEC will probably be +2 to +3 or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If zywts says it will snow, then I'll pay attention. That's my MO for this upcoming winter season. zwyts is good, but Wes is always my canary in the coal mine. If he honks we are getting blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Where can I find the cfsv2 snow dept for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 If zywts says it will snow, then I'll pay attention. That's my MO for this upcoming winter season. I am on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nothing has changed since yesterday except that the ens are forecasting the neg Ao to relax and then strengthen again but with the high heights not really where winter and snow lovers woulld like until towards the end of the run where there is little forecasting skill. The good news if there is any is that the AO does look like it will probably average below zero for the month as it has dropped to really low levels. That's usually a good sign for Jan in terms of the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This message is for wes(usedtobe). Im kevin from southaven ms. Im good friends with edberry and larry ruthi, both from dodge city ks. Gotta a few questions to ask you. First, typhoon bopha, is out in west pacific currently. Im hearing it could allow the difuse mjo to perhaps attach to polar westerlies from latent heat energy from the typhoon and get energized and possibly allow the mjo to move into phases 8 1 2. Wes, do you agree with that possible scenario? Lastly, ive been hearing about the strat warming event lately, but has not been as persistant as earlier. About that, when do you think the warming will commence again and possibly allow the pv over the artic circle to weaken and a greenland block to emerge, if at all? Mrwes, do u think december is pretty much lost on establishing a colder pattern to lock in, instead of being so transient like we have seen, or is there a glimmer of hope for us? HM and other mets can chime in on this if they want. Transient isnt a good thing for us i didnt think. Thanks kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This message is for wes(usedtobe). Im kevin from southaven ms. Im good friends with edberry and larry ruthi, both from dodge city ks. Gotta a few questions to ask you. First, typhoon bopha, is out in west pacific currently. Im hearing it could allow the difuse mjo to perhaps attach to polar westerlies from latent heat energy from the typhoon and get energized and possibly allow the mjo to move into phases 8 1 2. Wes, do you agree with that possible scenario? Lastly, ive been hearing about the strat warming event lately, but has not been as persistant as earlier. About that, when do you think the warming will commence again and possibly allow the pv over the artic circle to weaken and a greenland block to emerge, if at all? Mrwes, do u think december is pretty much lost on establishing a colder pattern to lock in, instead of being so transient like we have seen, or is there a glimmer of hope for us? HM and other mets can chime in on this if they want. Transient isnt a good thing for us i didnt think. Thanks kevin Ed knows way more about both the mjo and GWO than I do so if he is saying he thinks the typhoon might get the MJO going again and will nudge the signal out of the circle of death towards pahses 8, 1 and 2, I'd give it some weight. My answer is I have no idea whether it will or not. I do think the GWO and GLAAM are encouraging as they have more of an El Nino look right now than La Nina one but with time that could change. The more nino look to the glaam with the mjo getting into phase 8 might down the road get some southern stream energy going but that doesn't look like it is likely to happen in the near term. The berlin plot forecast of the stratospheric temps suggests that a minor warming will be taking place during the next week or so but the ep flux still is pointed towards the equator so I'm not sure that yet means much. I'm still encouraged by the strongly negative AO and think that means the Ao will average negative for Dec and probably Jan. However, I still think the next 2 weeks are pretty well lost for the east as most of the blocking associated with the negative AO is not yet where we need it. That doesn't mean it won't get there eventually. The CFS2 has again flipped cold for the second half of the month for what that is worth starting a week earlier than the last run. It hasn't been that good so I'm not sure how much credence to give it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Overnight runs were finally something to get interested in for the first time in 2-3 days. Certainly a volatile pattern in the Day 7+ time period, so I certainly wouldn't abandon hope. Getting to that time of year when sneaking in a surprise in the midst of a generally unfavorable pattern is possible. Models don't have to scream "KU!!!" at Day 10 for us to get a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Overnight runs were finally something to get interested in for the first time in 2-3 days. Certainly a volatile pattern in the Day 7+ time period, so I certainly wouldn't abandon hope. Getting to that time of year when sneaking in a surprise in the midst of a generally unfavorable pattern is possible. Models don't have to scream "KU!!!" at Day 10 for us to get a little snow. Those type of events are fun. They kinda sneak up on us. I do agree that the pattern shown isn't one that completely eliminates any snow chances but as I just posted in the banter thread, no cold pattern seem to be locking in. Unfavorable NAO seems pretty likely for a bit. Progressive with brief cool downs and warm ups. The real cold remains bottled for most of the country. Likely to affect the west and n plains long before it gets to us (only talking about the next 2 weeks). Who knows what happens during the second half. There is potential in the sense that the the important teleconnections aren't "disconnected" like last Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, seems will have a slightly negative to slightly positive AO and a slightly to moderately positive NAO going forward for the next 10-ish days. With that set up, we need a +PNA to get the cold delivered, which is what both last night's Euro and GFS show at some point in their runs last night. Given their volatility, I wouldn't trust anything specific, besides the fact that such a set up is not unreasonable during and after the 2nd week of December. Encouragingly, there's also signs of some STJ/split-flow action in each model from last night. Al Roker talking about the Pineapple Express for Cali this morning on the Today show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Running the h5 loops on the gfs really shows how the pv (pretty strong too) kinda sets up over GL. HM discusses this at length in the NE forum. Basically it's best to look at it like a sacrificial lamb because a subsequent -nao developing in it's place could potentially be likely. Of course the ingredients needed to help this transition is an awakening of the very sleepy MJO and the wonderful ssw acronym. One thing I don't like about the "we need the mjo to get out of the cod and move through 8-1-2" talk is that those types of things are always really slow to happen and far in the future. I suppose it's best to just simply keep an open mind because nothing is really that obvious yet. from mid month on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, 0z GFS parks it up over Baffin Island in fantasy range, but 6z puts it over southern Hudson Bay. Pretty obvious which of those is better for us. Wtih a big east Pac ridge like the 6z shows, the NE weenies would be drooling. 12z is different yet again (PV up north again and a piece back in AK). Punt this first week or 10 days of December, but any number of options still on the table after that period. No signs of a locked-in cold pattern, but this month certainly didn't scream "locked in cold pattern" 30 days ago. I'm content to ride this through and have faith that: 1. This isn't 11-12 2. AO looks generally favorable 3. STJ isn't dead 4. Plenty of cold air in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, 0z GFS parks it up over Baffin Island in fantasy range, but 6z puts it over southern Hudson Bay. Pretty obvious which of those is better for us. Wtih a big east Pac ridge like the 6z shows, the NE weenies would be drooling. 12z is different yet again (PV up north again and a piece back in AK). Punt this first week or 10 days of December, but any number of options still on the table after that period. No signs of a locked-in cold pattern, but this month certainly didn't scream "locked in cold pattern" 30 days ago. I'm content to ride this through and have faith that: 1. This isn't 11-12 2. AO looks generally favorable 3. STJ isn't dead 4. Plenty of cold air in Canada I'm not too jazzed about the day 10 threat...besides the late developing thread the needle pattern, we have no antecedent cold air mass which is usually a death knell in early december.....I think the 2nd half is up for grabs....with the other factors unlikely to be great, I don't think an iceland block will cut it....I think the threshold question for 12/15-12/31 and this is kind of stating the obvious is whether we can get a center/west based -NAO or not...we aren't going to have a great pacific pattern for any length of time.....I think there is a reasonable chance we get a well located block, maybe in the 12/20-12/30 period?....but that is low confidence from 3 weeks out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I'm not too jazzed about the day 10 threat...besides the late developing thread the needle pattern, we have no antecedent cold air mass which is usually a death knell in early december.....I think the 2nd half is up for grabs....with the other factors unlikely to be great, I don't think an iceland block will cut it....I think the threshold question for 12/15-12/31 and this is kind of stating the obvious is whether we can get a center/west based -NAO or not...we aren't going to have a great pacific pattern for any length of time.....I think there is a reasonable chance we get a well located block, maybe in the 12/20-12/30 period?....but that is low confidence from 3 weeks out... 12z GFS ensemble mean in the 300hr+ range looks...non-committal...for any sort of pattern on our side of the globe, but the one thing that does seem fairly robust is a moderately strong east-based NAO (Iceland block). I think that's why the NAO indicies on both the GFS and Euro both go negative after next week, but as you point out, an east-based -NAO is not ideal for us. I'd say better than nothing, but not by much. As our climo becomes more favorable, we can sneak in a small snowfall if either the Pac or Atlantic is briefly favorable, but we can't handle 2 hostile oceans with climo alone like NE can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean in the 300hr+ range looks...non-committal...for any sort of pattern on our side of the globe, but the one thing that does seem fairly robust is a moderately strong east-based NAO (Iceland block). I think that's why the NAO indicies on both the GFS and Euro both go negative after next week, but as you point out, an east-based -NAO is not ideal for us. I'd say better than nothing, but not by much. As our climo becomes more favorable, we can sneak in a small snowfall if either the Pac or Atlantic is briefly favorable, but we can't handle 2 hostile oceans with climo alone like NE can. not in DEC...though you can always get a clipper or some sort of sloppy mix event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ...besides the late developing thread the needle pattern, we have no antecedent cold air mass which is usually a death knell in early december..... We managed to overcome this 12/4-5 2005 however...so it has occurred somewhat recently no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We managed to overcome this 12/4-5 2005 however...so it has occurred somewhat recently no? we got some good timing, but the air mass was legit too...plus we had a baffin island block...much better pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT is all giddy over this....I'm not sure I see what is so great, but what do I know...any thoughts?...looks like the ridge is too far west...the EPO region sucks....there is a PV up over NW canada....the block is over Iceland....it looks like an equal chances pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT is all giddy over this....I'm not sure I see what is so great, but what do I know...any thoughts?...looks like the ridge is too far west...the EPO region sucks....there is a PV up over NW canada....the block is over Iceland....it looks like an equal chances pattern it looks more like a ridge in response to the large vortex over canada rather than a true block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 it looks more like a ridge in response to the large vortex over canada rather than a true block The GFS ens have the same pattern at 10 days and generally improve it going forward, but a -PNA/+EPO look persists...I am not jazzed down here until that block moves west....you can probably do better with that pattern...we haven't typically produced in that pattern, esp in Dec...you get a very weak trough or zonal in the east and everything cuts to the west or become weak post frontal waves that get washed out..then we get cold for 2 days....warm up and repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 a couple 41/27 days around the 9th-15th are possible...which would be -5's/-6's....probably keep us from totally torching the 1st half....we'll probably put up a couple +12's this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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