November Mid-Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Today I give the AO a chance at remaining negative through the beginning of December at 75%, but if tomorrow's guidance comes in showing part of the spread getting into the positive, then I will reduce the chances to 50%.

Stay tuned!

[Ian]

This is about when hopes usually start unraveling.

[ravensrule]

This is about when hopes usually start unraveling.

Winter cancel?. Where the hell is Ji.

[mitchnick]

This is about when hopes usually start unraveling.

every year it happens

I still believe we go average to a little above in snowfall

this fall has been too wet and NOV too cool to get skunked again

[Ian]

every year it happens

I still believe we go average to a little above in snowfall

this fall has been too wet and NOV too cool to get skunked again

has fall really been wet? nov has been quite dry. take out sandy and it's not been a very stormy pattern of late. though im not sure what we've seen of recent means too much. the cooler than avg was different if nothing else.

[PhineasC]

has fall really been wet? nov has been quite dry. take out sandy and it's not been a very stormy pattern of late. though im not sure what we've seen of recent means too much. the cooler than avg was different if nothing else.

At the end of the day we will be sitting here for the next 4 months looking at threats on the models and hoping the precip lines up with the cold air. Same as always. I am not sure I get this deep-dive of the long-range GFS and Euro that is happening in this thread.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The problem is that it isn't just one model run. Guidance in general has been moving in the wrong direction. Ens from last night don't show much better. Believe me, I hope I'm totally out to lunch and would love to say my analysis is terrible right now but it's becoming more clear which direction we are going the first half of the month (Wes' article nailed it).

With all this being said, it's not terrible and far from winter cancel stuff. We could easily transition towards and amplified and blocky pattern. When and if seem to have moved a bit further into the future.

Well, that's kinda my point. Wasn't it just a few days ago that the modeling looked much better? People were getting excited over it? Now its completely different? How do we ever feel confident when the long range progs are so volatile?

Just look at the difference between the 12z GFS today and the 18z from yesterday for next Wed. And that's within a week of now. Look at the change from the 12z Euro on Tues to the 0z later that evening for 10 days out. Night and day. We put a lot of faith in these models that don't seem to have very much consistency at long range. I know we're supposed to look at ensembles but they aren't exactly rocks in the storm either.

The next few days look to be on the mild side with no snow. I feel pretty confident in that. And that's about it. I think there's just as good a chance at this point of a good winter as their is a bad one.

[Bob Chill]

At the end of the day we will be sitting here for the next 4 months looking at threats on the models and hoping the precip lines up with the cold air. Same as always. I am not sure I get this deep-dive of the long-range GFS and Euro that is happening in this thread.

Pretty much. I wouldn't say I'm deep diving because I know better but the trend is becoming pretty clear. I haven't seen the whole 12z gfs yet but it sucks so far. NAO going positive and pac air pretty much across the whole country.

When we had the blocky pattern in Oct-Nov I always had it in the back of my mind that the pattern could get "tired" for lack of a better word. It's not a big deal having zonal flow and +ao/nao during the first half of Dec. But if that type of pattern becomes stable (we've seen it plenty of times) then it's time to be at least be a little disappointed.

[Ian]

At the end of the day we will be sitting here for the next 4 months looking at threats on the models and hoping the precip lines up with the cold air. Same as always. I am not sure I get this deep-dive of the long-range GFS and Euro that is happening in this thread.

I don't get the endless search for a pattern. I guess the same thing can be said about most weather but it seems people spend an inordinate amount of time on looking for snow in the long range even though a good pattern maybe only produces half of the time (if that). Then again, what else is there to do right now I suppose.

[Bob Chill]

I don't get the endless search for a pattern. I guess the same thing can be said about most weather but it seems people spend an inordinate amount of time on looking for snow in the long range even though a good pattern maybe only produces half of the time (if that). Then again, what else is there to do right now I suppose.

It's an affliction. What can you do?

Watching the gfs move the pv over gl is probably a bad thing. We might be wearing shorts next weekend.

[Ian]

It's an affliction. What can you do?

Watching the gfs move the pv over gl is probably a bad thing. We might be wearing shorts next weekend.

I don't hold it against anyone. I spend a lot of time looking at stuff that's kinda meaningless to most people. I just personally think our snow climo is pretty crappy.. so I'm generally a "wait till it's in range then keep fingers crossed" kinda person.

[mattie g]

Winter cancel?. Where the hell is Ji.

In the New England forum.

[mattie g]

I don't hold it against anyone. I spend a lot of time looking at stuff that's kinda meaningless to most people. I just personally think our snow climo is pretty crappy.. so I'm generally a "wait till it's in range then keep fingers crossed" kinda person.

I'd rather remain ignorant of a crappy longer-term pattern, then get interested if there are chances on the horizon. Watching out for a good pattern in the long range is generally fruitless for us and only serves to disappoint.

I don't begrudge anyone who does it, though. To each their own.

How long until our average temps start going back up?

[Ian]

I'd rather remain ignorant of a crappy longer-term pattern, then get interested if there are chances on the horizon. Watching out for a good pattern in the long range is generally fruitless for us and only serves to disappoint.

I don't begrudge anyone who does it, though. To each their own.

How long until our average temps start going back up?

Quite a while... End of Jan

[Bob Chill]

I'd rather remain ignorant of a crappy longer-term pattern, then get interested if there are chances on the horizon. Watching out for a good pattern in the long range is generally fruitless for us and only serves to disappoint.

I don't begrudge anyone who does it, though. To each their own.

How long until our average temps start going back up?

Don't worry. I'll keep you well informed. Hows this look to ya?

[nj2va]

Quite a while... End of Jan

3 or so weeks until daylight starts gradually getting longer. Cue the agony of the sun angle.

[mattie g]

Quite a while... End of Jan

[mattie g]

Don't worry. I'll keep you well informed. Hows this look to ya?

Golfing weather.

[Ian]

3 or so weeks until daylight starts gradually getting longer. Cue the agony of the sun angle.

Sun angle doesn't really become an issue till mid-Feb or so around here.

[Wonderdog]

I think we are overanalyzing things a bit at this point.

[Bob Chill]

Sun angle doesn't really become an issue till mid-Feb or so around here.

Not to mention that it's only an issue when there is something on the ground to melt. Unless you consider morning frost a T.

[Wonderdog]

I wholeheartedly agree. This is still November. Frankly even worryng about the first half of dec. is a wasted effort imo.

[Bob Chill]

I wholeheartedly agree. This is still November. Frankly even worryng about the first half of dec. is a wasted effort imo.

It's only worth worrying about when the type of pattern sets up that can cost us 4-6 weeks. Not saying that it's happening right now but you can't discount the signs either. If the pv sets up near GL then we could be fooked for a while. Things like that have a tendency to park. The pac was never expected to be all that great in Dec so we rely on hl blocking. If both the ao/nao go big + then the hotline will be hiring.

[VAsnowlvr82]

It's only worth worrying about when the type of pattern sets up that can cost us 4-6 weeks. Not saying that it's happening right now but you can't discount the signs either. If the pv sets up near GL then we could be fooked for a while. Things like that have a tendency to park. The pac was never expected to be all that great in Dec so we rely on hl blocking. If both the ao/nao go big + then the hotline will be hiring.

I thought it was like two days ago that you were commenting on how the pattern would roll forward to a beneficial one for this area or maybe it was someone else. I just dont see how a day or two of runs equal a trend or signs when everything has been flipping so much lately but thats just me.

[midatlanticweather]

Sun angle doesn't really become an issue till mid-Feb or so around here.

Every angle of the long range looks warm on these maps! Forget the sun angle, except you will need sun glasses while being outside when it is at an angle that hits your eyes!!

[mitchnick]

has fall really been wet? nov has been quite dry. take out sandy and it's not been a very stormy pattern of late. though im not sure what we've seen of recent means too much. the cooler than avg was different if nothing else.

I'm looking at raw numbers and not discounting any one storm

[Bob Chill]

I thought it was like two days ago that you were commenting on how the pattern would roll forward to a beneficial one for this area or maybe it was someone else. I just dont see how a day or two of runs equal a trend or signs when everything has been flipping so much lately but thats just me.

I didn't say anything about rolling forward but I was discussing possibilities with the cold air intrusion showing up in the 8-10 day range. I was leaning towards a more se push from the northern plains. It's looking more like a gradient type of setup and nothing moving too quick in our direction.

I don't say this with much confidence because it's too far out there. Latest guidance isn't our friend though. Moving the pv and lower heights towards GL is a really bad thing (if it isn't temporary of course). We'll see what the euro says.

Second half of dec it totally up in the air imo. The first half is shaping up warm and boring. At least the next week or so. I'm hoping the euro doesn't look like the gfs. That's for sure.

[bjohnson102184]

I didn't say anything about rolling forward but I was discussing possibilities with the cold air intrusion showing up in the 8-10 day range. I was leaning towards a more se push from the northern plains. It's looking more like a gradient type of setup and nothing moving too quick in our direction.

I don't say this with much confidence because it's too far out there. Latest guidance isn't our friend though. Moving the pv and lower heights towards GL is a really bad thing (if it isn't temporary of course). We'll see what the euro says.

Second half of dec it totally up in the air imo. The first half is shaping up warm and boring. At least the next week or so. I'm hoping the euro doesn't look like the gfs. That's for sure.

you are going to get a " C'mon Man"......just yesterday you were loving the LR....face it its almost pointless to look at right now with such extreme swings from run to run.....take a deep breathe and relax

[Bob Chill]

you are going to get a " C'mon Man"......just yesterday you were loving the LR....

I definitely wouldn't say I was loving it. I was only pointing out the good I could find irt going cold again after the obvious warmth. I said it could go one of two ways... and things seem to be moving in the other way... lol

Whenever there is a boring stretch like the next week or so the only thing to do is look at the lr. It's why this place exists. There's only so much discussion you can have about warm and sunny.

[VAsnowlvr82]

I didn't say anything about rolling forward but I was discussing possibilities with the cold air intrusion showing up in the 8-10 day range. I was leaning towards a more se push from the northern plains. It's looking more like a gradient type of setup and nothing moving too quick in our direction.

I don't say this with much confidence because it's too far out there. Latest guidance isn't our friend though. Moving the pv and lower heights towards GL is a really bad thing (if it isn't temporary of course). We'll see what the euro says.

Second half of dec it totally up in the air imo. The first half is shaping up warm and boring. At least the next week or so. I'm hoping the euro doesn't look like the gfs. That's for sure.

Thanks very much for the response.