mattie g Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 But fun to do and probably no worse than any other method at that time range. The CFS2 went from cold on week 4 to warm from one day to the next so the models aren't very good either. I'm on he warm 1st half of Dec bandwagon despite my wishy washy week 2 forecast in yesterday's piece. I'm still unsure of the value of the CFSv2. Its "forecasts" seem to change daily, and sometimes the swings are pretty wild. And I don't understand the three different versions - is one an operational-type version and the others are like ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'm still unsure of the value of the CFSv2. Its "forecasts" seem to change daily, and sometimes the swings are pretty wild. And I don't understand the three different versions - is one an operational-type version and the others are like ensembles? Just an observation but from what I've seen with the cfs and the weeklies is that they are good with stable patterns and crappy with volatile ones. Common sense of course. It's unrealistic to think any model can "lock in" a month out. When you have a raging +NAO or massive AK vortex or other similar stable feature it's exponentially easier to "get it right". Stating the obvious of course. But as things stand right now with the volatile pattern, I won't jump for joy or cry in my cheerios on anything that the CFS or euro weeklies say. If some type of pattern seems to be locking in then it's whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just an observation but from what I've seen with the cfs and the weeklies is that they are good with stable patterns and crappy with volatile ones. Common sense of course. It's unrealistic to think any model can "lock in" a month out. When you have a raging +NAO or massive AK vortex or other similar stable feature it's exponentially easier to "get it right". Stating the obvious of course. But as things stand right now with the volatile pattern, I won't jump for joy or cry in my cheerios on anything that the CFS or euro weeklies say. If some type of pattern seems to be locking in then it's whole different story. Makes perfect sense that long-range models would have trouble with volatile patterns, but some of the shifts in the CFSv2 are pretty big from run to run. I'm just trying to make some sense of it (if that's possible). Like you, I certainly won't get upset or overjoyed by looking at the long-range stuff unless it looks like we get locked into a pattern of some sort. I'm not expecting a big winter of any sort, so I'm ready to be surprised. I think we could nickle-and-dime our way to a near-normal year, but if we get an 8+"er somewhere along the line, we could put up a reasonable number for the season when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 After looking at the 0z and 12z gfs again the main difference is the vortex near hudson bay. It's much stronger and sw on the 12z vs 0z in the lr. This is what's allowing for a more amplified flow. The ridging in the pac isn't ideal but if the vortex in northern canada sinks south then a good part of the country will be cold. Way too far in the future to think the change means anything but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 GFS definitely improves the PAC in the medium-to-long range. Puts a trough in the Aleutians as it retrogrades that Bering Straight block back into Siberia. That pumps up a big ridge just off the West Coast, which allows the Rockies/Plains to get pretty cold in the 2nd week of December. Gets legit cross-polar flow going into Central Canada after 240hrs. AO looks negative the whole time just based on the 500 anomalies, but the NAO is probably positive. That +NAO is what prevents some absolutely icebox air from getting into the CONUS. GFS shows -44F (!!!) temps in western Ontario late in the run. Our torch only really lasts Monday-Wednesday of next week, and then it's back to roughly seasonable for the remainder of the run as an eyeball assessment. No snow chances, not even a fantasy-land tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'm still unsure of the value of the CFSv2. Its "forecasts" seem to change daily, and sometimes the swings are pretty wild. And I don't understand the three different versions - is one an operational-type version and the others are like ensembles? I think it is the latest version of the climate model and the forecasts are the ens mean of 16 members. I think the CFSv2 is the more sophisticated of the CFS models but don't know for sure. It's the one I've been looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Cold January seems to be dry of late. Feb will be rockin! Winter 2012/2013 cancel. However, December 2013 will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Euro only appears to have 2 days of legit torch and GFS has 3 next week. Both have quite cold days next Thursday and Friday. Glad I'll be out of town for the torch and back in time for the cold wx! Pattern evolution is occurring for sure on the Euro, but doesn't show the quite rapid flip the GFS does around Day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Euro made a nice move away from warmth. -10 850's almost over dc thurs next week. Very cold aimass entering the n plains day 10. -30 850's just north of MN. The 500 height config definitely looks like the airmass will sink SE. At this point the "torch" during the first 10 days of Dec look more like a Bic lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Ninja'd by the man in green! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Euro made a nice move away from warmth. -10 850's almost over dc thurs next week. Very cold aimass entering the n plains day 10. -30 850's just north of MN. The 500 height config definitely looks like the airmass will sink SE. At this point the "torch" during the first 10 days of Dec look more like a Bic lighter. Euro's consistency at 9-10 range is not very much. I'm feeling pretty good looking ahead. Might just be weenieism, but I didn't feel good, ever, last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 At this point the "torch" during the first 10 days of Dec look more like a Bic lighter. Lol. With the mean trough well to our west, the pattern of cutters shown by both models makes perfect sense. For us, that means a bit of a temperature see-saw, with warm ups with highs probably into the mid-upper 50s (low 70s for DCA ) and then cool downs with highs in the 30s. Each of which probably only last a day or two. Definitely not a snow pattern for us, but one that probably averages out to be near normal or only slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Lol. With the mean trough well to our west, the pattern of cutters shown by both models makes perfect sense. For us, that means a bit of a temperature see-saw, with warm ups with highs probably into the mid-upper 50s (low 70s for DCA ) and then cool downs with highs in the 30s. Each of which probably only last a day or two. Definitely not a snow pattern for us, but one that probably averages out to be near normal or only slightly above. Yea, I've written off snow until things reshuffle a bit. Maybe a strong front can toss a few post frontal flakes flying around. That's about the most optimistic I am right now but that's fine. Punting the first half of December with a seasonal pattern is far from a bad thing or reason to be nervous. I'm most interested in that both the euro and gfs show some really cold stuff entering the n plains. There's plenty of cold air up in canada too. It can happen 1 of 2 ways. The cold air sinks down the east side of the rockies and into the northern plains because the ridge off the coast is too far south and west to be good for us. The cold airmass would end up being old and beat up by the time it gets here....or the ridge is in a more favorable e/ne position combined with higher heights anywhere in the vicinity of gl would let the airmass move with relative authority to the se. I'm leaning towards the latter and not just because I'm a weenie. Other than the obvious ridge position out west, It all comes down to blocking or lack thereof. If I had to bet I would hedge towards the nao helping out and getting a cold pattern established (then at least there is potential right?). We really need that because threading the needle is lame down here in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Bob, the 1st 4 days of dec look pretty warm to me then we get a nice cold front for a day or two of below normal temps before rebounding to above. However, if the euro 10 day forecast ends up being right then the pattern is better beyond 10 days as we pop a positive pna pattern. I think that is very much up in the air but we'll see. Right now I'm happy with yesterday's normal outlook for the 8-14 day period and warmer prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Bob, the 1st 4 days of dec look pretty warm to me then we get a nice cold front for a day or two of below normal temps before rebounding to above. However, if the euro 10 day forecast ends up being right then the pattern is better beyond 10 days as we pop a positive pna pattern. I think that is very much up in the air but we'll see. Right now I'm happy with yesterday's normal outlook for the 8-14 day period and warmer prior to that. Absolutely agree. Month will likely start off with some +6-10 departures but they will be partially be erased next weekend (probably). Then it gets a little blurry. Does the trough dig west into the rockies or into the plains towards the EC? Digs west then we definitely go warm first half. If not, then we may hit mid month even on temps. Still much to be determined. But having no long + dep streak is nice. Let the chips fall. I doubt we end the month with zero accum but that's been said in previous years... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Seems like the pattern has been normal with occasional dips to below with ample moisture, at least from my "sensible weather" perspective. Our good winters usually end up like this, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Seems like the pattern has been normal with occasional dips to below with ample moisture, at least from my "sensible weather" perspective. Our good winters usually end up like this, it seems. My rain gauge for November would beg to differ: 0.54" for the month. The airport on the other side of town has received half that, 0.27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Seems like the pattern has been normal with occasional dips to below with ample moisture, at least from my "sensible weather" perspective. Our good winters usually end up like this, it seems. that's what I've been saying feels like how I remember Oct/Nov 95 were, though I know they aren't exact as for the precip, Nov has been dry but we did get almost 7" of rain at BWI 10/28-10/30 and the combined 2 months at BWI is 9.63" which is above normal for that 2 month period (10/95 & 11/95 were a combined 10.36" ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This thread is going to be quiet for a while. Absolutely nothing promising happening anytime soon. Stating to see lower heights showing up on around the pole too so the AO isn't looking to be as negative over the next 10 days as we first thought. Some guidance points towards going positive (slightly) in the next 7-10 days. NAO looks to have no real affect anytime soon either. If we are having this same conversation in 10-15 days then I'm going to be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This thread is going to be quiet for a while. Absolutely nothing promising happening anytime soon. Stating to see lower heights showing up on around the pole too so the AO isn't looking to be as negative over the next 10 days as we first thought. Some guidance points towards going positive (slightly) in the next 7-10 days. NAO looks to have no real affect anytime soon either. If we are having this same conversation in 10-15 days then I'm going to be pissed. Good post, I pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Good post, I pretty much agree. You're supposed to violently disagree and tell me that I need new glasses when looking at models! lol Last nights runs were a step backwards IMO. Raging pac zonal look on the GFS with a deteriorating pac through the period. If things go as advertised it will be a tougher pattern to break than I had been thinking the last couple of days. It is what it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This thread is going to be quiet for a while. Absolutely nothing promising happening anytime soon. Stating to see lower heights showing up on around the pole too so the AO isn't looking to be as negative over the next 10 days as we first thought. Some guidance points towards going positive (slightly) in the next 7-10 days. NAO looks to have no real affect anytime soon either. If we are having this same conversation in 10-15 days then I'm going to be pissed. This is where I start having issues. The models, especially the operationals, are flipping and flopping more than a fish in Wes' boat after you get out past about 7 days. Pretty hard for me to put a lot of faith in anything. The patterns you guys look at are modeled patterns, and, dumb as it sounds, aren't reality. I mean, just how accurate have the AO and NAO forecasts been at 10 days and beyond? Not too good if I'm reading the charts correctly. If we're sitting around waiting for the 500 chart to look like a sine curve starting on the west coast and completing one period on the east coast, we might remain disappointed. I've read many posts stating that this winter is shaping up nowhere near last winter, so I take some comfort in that. Like you said, it is what it is and will be what it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is where I start having issues. The models, especially the operationals, are flipping and flopping more than a fish in Wes' boat after you get out past about 7 days. Pretty hard for me to put a lot of faith in anything. The patterns you guys look at are modeled patterns, and, dumb as it sounds, aren't reality. I mean, just how accurate have the AO and NAO forecasts been at 10 days and beyond? Not too good if I'm reading the charts correctly. If we're sitting around waiting for the 500 chart to look like a sine curve starting on the west coast and completing one period on the east coast, we might remain disappointed. I've read many posts stating that this winter is shaping up nowhere near last winter, so I take some comfort in that. Like you said, it is what it is and will be what it will be. The problem is that it isn't just one model run. Guidance in general has been moving in the wrong direction. Ens from last night don't show much better. Believe me, I hope I'm totally out to lunch and would love to say my analysis is terrible right now but it's becoming more clear which direction we are going the first half of the month (Wes' article nailed it). With all this being said, it's not terrible and far from winter cancel stuff. We could easily transition towards and amplified and blocky pattern. When and if seem to have moved a bit further into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The problem is that it isn't just one model run. Guidance in general has been moving in the wrong direction. Ens from last night don't show much better. Believe me, I hope I'm totally out to lunch and would love to say my analysis is terrible right now but it's becoming more clear which direction we are going the first half of the month (Wes' article nailed it). With all this being said, it's not terrible and far from winter cancel stuff. We could easily transition towards and amplified and blocky pattern. When and if seem to have moved a bit further into the future. Last nights 0z showed some fluctuation in the constant Pac train but it was all super transient. Until some piece can set up to gum up the flow all it looks we can hope for is something to graze us during one of those minor burps in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Last nights 0z showed some fluctuation in the constant Pac train but it was all super transient. Until some piece can set up to gum up the flow all it looks we can hope for is something to graze us during one of those minor burps in the flow. Pretty much. I fear the piece of gum is getting harder to identify for the time being. This is worrisome. Just look at the AO forecast from the 27th to today. Guidance is picking up on a shift towards lower heights around the pole. NAO is no better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Pretty much. I fear the piece of gum is getting harder to identify for the time being. This is worrisome. Just look at the AO forecast from the 27th to today. Guidance is picking up on a shift towards lower heights around the pole. NAO is no better. Granted both showed the spike back up there is clearly less spread now after it gets neutral. At least it still stays neg/neutral and the recent plunge hasn't done a whole lot for us right now(again, thanks to the Pac). I agree that i would like to start seeing some sort of reliable pattern show up in the 10 day range but there is still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This thread is going to be quiet for a while. Absolutely nothing promising happening anytime soon. Stating to see lower heights showing up on around the pole too so the AO isn't looking to be as negative over the next 10 days as we first thought. Some guidance points towards going positive (slightly) in the next 7-10 days. NAO looks to have no real affect anytime soon either. If we are having this same conversation in 10-15 days then I'm going to be pissed. What happened to that SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think we are overanalyzing things a bit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think we are overanalyzing things a bit at this point. Couldn't agree more......Its Nov 29 guys........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think we are overanalyzing things a bit at this point. Today I give the AO a chance at remaining negative through the beginning of December at 75%, but if tomorrow's guidance comes in showing part of the spread getting into the positive, then I will reduce the chances to 50%. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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