mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro juiced up more, also a bit colder. .50"+ across DC/Balt much of N MD. 4-8" snow over S/SE PA into NJ. 1+" snow starts NW of DC and Balt. Actually, Balt probably in 1"+. keep trendin' baby, keep trendin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro looks like an Average of the GFS and the GGEM. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Temps are still quite marginal and timing is not best but it is slower by about 6 hours than 0z. Don't need much shift to get more late pm/post sunset action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 keep trendin' baby, keep trendin' We've both been in this game long enough to know that when we start out needing A+B+C to happen, we get heartbroken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Seeing any snow in late november is a bonus... so even light snow with no stickage is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 For someone who hasn't looked at anything in 3 days and still thought this was a cutter, is this a rain-to-snow or snow-to-rain situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Seeing any snow in late november is a bonus... so even light snow with no stickage is fine by me the vort track is still not great for the cities but it's at least sorta interesting, or within shiftable distance of better. we certainly should not be expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like frozen here Tuesday morning on the Euro. If it gets in that early, it could lay the foundation for a 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 For someone who hasn't looked at anything in 3 days and still thought this was a cutter, is this a rain-to-snow or snow-to-rain situation? prob all snow on northern end.. near md border area and north/higher elev west. rain to snow elsewhere maybe ending snow in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Marginal events - tough to get! And agreed about the A+B+C need as it is unfavorable - Still thinking NW VA, WEST MD, Central PA - with a little elevation, will see snow and have some stick. Above 500 feet! A little further north elevation will not be needed (North MD). Some snow mixed in with rain possible in metros seems possible towards end! but hey, just Weenie talk. BTW - DT mentioned a possibility of a storm last Week and everyone shot it down! Well, nothing real yet, but he was somewhat right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 euro timing sucks...It is like a 9-10 hour event starting at 6am..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro is a much colder run overall until next weekend when we start to semi-torch...but that is a long way off of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 euro timing sucks...It is like a 9-10 hour event starting at 6am..... What kind of surface temps are we dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What kind of surface temps are we dealing with. gets up to like 40 or so at 18z along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 either way it gave us like nothing 2 runs ago and shifted 6 hrs this run. we could use some rain.. dry month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What kind of surface temps are we dealing with. my maps kind of suck, but looks like mid to upper 30s for the event....of course in mod snow that would probably be 34-35, but likely not cold enough to stick except on grass/cartops for me and you...not sure about precip type...perhaps oscillating back and forth....0.50" of cold rain would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What kind of surface temps are we dealing with. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 12Z NOV24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 24-NOV 2.1 -9.7 1014 47 5 0.00 541 530 SAT 18Z 24-NOV 6.3 -7.7 1013 38 11 0.00 537 526 SUN 00Z 25-NOV 3.0 -8.4 1015 42 33 0.00 539 527 SUN 06Z 25-NOV 0.2 -6.9 1017 52 11 0.00 547 533 SUN 12Z 25-NOV -1.7 -4.7 1018 61 3 0.00 550 535 SUN 18Z 25-NOV 5.4 -2.7 1015 43 91 0.00 550 538 MON 00Z 26-NOV 2.3 -1.5 1015 57 88 0.00 554 542 MON 06Z 26-NOV -0.9 -1.4 1017 71 16 0.00 557 543 MON 12Z 26-NOV 0.8 0.7 1020 64 41 0.00 559 543 MON 18Z 26-NOV 9.4 0.8 1021 46 65 0.00 561 543 TUE 00Z 27-NOV 3.0 0.8 1023 77 59 0.00 562 543 TUE 06Z 27-NOV 1.0 0.3 1023 89 91 0.00 562 543 TUE 12Z 27-NOV 4.4 -1.4 1023 88 100 0.04 561 542 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 5.1 -1.3 1019 95 98 0.16 557 542 WED 00Z 28-NOV 2.4 -3.2 1020 97 86 0.28 551 535 WED 06Z 28-NOV 1.7 -4.6 1021 92 12 0.00 549 532 WED 12Z 28-NOV -1.3 -4.4 1023 85 28 0.00 547 529 WED 18Z 28-NOV 6.3 -5.9 1022 49 61 0.00 547 529 THU 00Z 29-NOV 2.7 -6.8 1024 55 4 0.00 554 535 THU 06Z 29-NOV -1.2 -3.8 1026 72 5 0.00 559 538 THU 12Z 29-NOV THU 18Z 29-NOV FRI 00Z 30-NOV FRI 06Z 30-NOV FRI 12Z 30-NOV FRI 18Z 30-NOV SAT 00Z 01-DEC SAT 06Z 01-DEC SAT 12Z 01-DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 can anyone opine on an Aleutian ridge/block?....that looks to be a pretty stable feature going forward....I don't think it is generally a good feature for us, since there is usually a trough to the east of there..we usually prefer a vortex over the Aleutians..But I think we may also have periods of -NAO too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 12Z NOV24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 24-NOV 2.1 -9.7 1014 47 5 0.00 541 530 SAT 18Z 24-NOV 6.3 -7.7 1013 38 11 0.00 537 526 SUN 00Z 25-NOV 3.0 -8.4 1015 42 33 0.00 539 527 SUN 06Z 25-NOV 0.2 -6.9 1017 52 11 0.00 547 533 SUN 12Z 25-NOV -1.7 -4.7 1018 61 3 0.00 550 535 SUN 18Z 25-NOV 5.4 -2.7 1015 43 91 0.00 550 538 MON 00Z 26-NOV 2.3 -1.5 1015 57 88 0.00 554 542 MON 06Z 26-NOV -0.9 -1.4 1017 71 16 0.00 557 543 MON 12Z 26-NOV 0.8 0.7 1020 64 41 0.00 559 543 MON 18Z 26-NOV 9.4 0.8 1021 46 65 0.00 561 543 TUE 00Z 27-NOV 3.0 0.8 1023 77 59 0.00 562 543 TUE 06Z 27-NOV 1.0 0.3 1023 89 91 0.00 562 543 TUE 12Z 27-NOV 4.4 -1.4 1023 88 100 0.04 561 542 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 5.1 -1.3 1019 95 98 0.16 557 542 WED 00Z 28-NOV 2.4 -3.2 1020 97 86 0.28 551 535 WED 06Z 28-NOV 1.7 -4.6 1021 92 12 0.00 549 532 WED 12Z 28-NOV -1.3 -4.4 1023 85 28 0.00 547 529 WED 18Z 28-NOV 6.3 -5.9 1022 49 61 0.00 547 529 THU 00Z 29-NOV 2.7 -6.8 1024 55 4 0.00 554 535 THU 06Z 29-NOV -1.2 -3.8 1026 72 5 0.00 559 538 THU 12Z 29-NOV THU 18Z 29-NOV FRI 00Z 30-NOV FRI 06Z 30-NOV FRI 12Z 30-NOV FRI 18Z 30-NOV SAT 00Z 01-DEC SAT 06Z 01-DEC SAT 12Z 01-DEC ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 ugh Euro runs warm at the sfc. Thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 ugh it's the 3rd year in a row of seeing those kinds of numbers....so close, yet so far at least it's better than climo, which is pretty boring around here this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 12Z NOV24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 24-NOV 2.1 -9.7 1014 47 5 0.00 541 530 SAT 18Z 24-NOV 6.3 -7.7 1013 38 11 0.00 537 526 SUN 00Z 25-NOV 3.0 -8.4 1015 42 33 0.00 539 527 SUN 06Z 25-NOV 0.2 -6.9 1017 52 11 0.00 547 533 SUN 12Z 25-NOV -1.7 -4.7 1018 61 3 0.00 550 535 SUN 18Z 25-NOV 5.4 -2.7 1015 43 91 0.00 550 538 MON 00Z 26-NOV 2.3 -1.5 1015 57 88 0.00 554 542 MON 06Z 26-NOV -0.9 -1.4 1017 71 16 0.00 557 543 MON 12Z 26-NOV 0.8 0.7 1020 64 41 0.00 559 543 MON 18Z 26-NOV 9.4 0.8 1021 46 65 0.00 561 543 TUE 00Z 27-NOV 3.0 0.8 1023 77 59 0.00 562 543 TUE 06Z 27-NOV 1.0 0.3 1023 89 91 0.00 562 543 TUE 12Z 27-NOV 4.4 -1.4 1023 88 100 0.04 561 542 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 5.1 -1.3 1019 95 98 0.16 557 542 WED 00Z 28-NOV 2.4 -3.2 1020 97 86 0.28 551 535 WED 06Z 28-NOV 1.7 -4.6 1021 92 12 0.00 549 532 WED 12Z 28-NOV -1.3 -4.4 1023 85 28 0.00 547 529 WED 18Z 28-NOV 6.3 -5.9 1022 49 61 0.00 547 529 THU 00Z 29-NOV 2.7 -6.8 1024 55 4 0.00 554 535 THU 06Z 29-NOV -1.2 -3.8 1026 72 5 0.00 559 538 THU 12Z 29-NOV THU 18Z 29-NOV FRI 00Z 30-NOV FRI 06Z 30-NOV FRI 12Z 30-NOV FRI 18Z 30-NOV SAT 00Z 01-DEC SAT 06Z 01-DEC SAT 12Z 01-DEC Thanks. 2m temps still look pretty warm, if I remember the model did have a surface temp bias, I'm not sure whether it is still present or not. too bad it's precipitating during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks. 2m temps still look pretty warm, if I remember the model did have a surface temp bias, I'm not sure whether it is still present or not. too bad it's precipitating during the day NAM looks cold. Low sun angle. We are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 NAM looks cold. Low sun angle. We are due. like a 12 month pregnancy we are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 NAM looks cold. Low sun angle. We are due. lol, we usually stay due. Matt, The massive ridge near the aleutians teleconnest to really wet conditions from nrn CA into the pac nw with the rain sometimes even getting to srn ca. It also tends to bring warm air out into the plains so nationally it's sort of a warm pattern except for sometime right along the east coasts. If the ridge retrogresses a little and a trough digs farther west so a ridge pops near or even bet inland from the west coast, then the pattern is a better one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 lol, we usually stay due. Matt, The massive ridge near the aleutians teleconnest to really wet conditions from nrn CA into the pac nw with the rain sometimes even getting to srn ca. It also tends to bring warm air out into the plains so nationally it's sort of a warm pattern except for sometime right along the east coasts. If the ridge retrogresses a little and a trough digs farther west so a ridge pops near or even bet inland from the west coast, then the pattern is a better one. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks. 2m temps still look pretty warm, if I remember the model did have a surface temp bias, I'm not sure whether it is still present or not. too bad it's precipitating during the day Yeah but at least we have the 850's for now. Still time for a 6 hour shift which would have all qpf coming after sundown. I wouldn't think it would take long for a changeover, but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah but at least we have the 850's for now. Still time for a 6 hour shift which would have all qpf coming after sundown. I wouldn't think it would take long for a changeover, but what do I know fwiw, 12Z NAM showed precip getting in after 7PM but it is the 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Also, 12Z ECMWF puts Philly in the 3"-6" area, and with the way things have been flip flopping it wouldn't take much to shift ~100miles south. With that said, I don't have much faith in the needle being threaded situation around here ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nam just went off on precip... And went off in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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