Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snow? 2m temps are in the 30s it seems. ive only looked at ncep maps.. looks a bit precarious in the city at least but n/w might be fine. timing could use a good 6 hrs of slowing or so. but it's better than having no precip i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 ive only looked at ncep maps.. looks a bit precarious in the city at least but n/w might be fine. timing could use a good 6 hrs of slowing or so. but it's better than having no precip i suppose. yeah looked iffy in dc even to my weenie eyes. at least its something to track in late november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 yeah looked iffy in dc even to my weenie eyes. at least its something to track in late november. I actually sorta think the Euro is too dry/suppressed but its never the best bet to go against it. NAM/SREF seem to support at least some precip tho light rates might not do us any good even at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I actually sorta think the Euro is too dry/suppressed but its never the best bet to go against it. NAM/SREF seem to support at least some precip tho light rates might not do us any good even at night. FWIW (not much), GFS weenie snow map has about 1-2" in DC, obviously more to our NW. Interesting to see Euro later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I've never seen that map on ncep site...which one is that? like that better than the one i was using. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I've never seen that map on ncep site...which one is that? like that better than the one i was using. thanks. it's from weatherbell. i don't subscribe but ryan maue tweets a lot of them out. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This might end up being too far south or flat. Euro wins again? We'll see. Omg you're alive! Hai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Man i'd be in heaven. 6-8" Lord please one time. I need snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lock it up...I'll take the 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I am guessing that was Ian who brought out the SPI on FB for CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 euro back to giving us precip. not as energetic as gfs but .25"+ or so up 95. cold 850s.. probably marginal surface. starts early too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 euro back to giving us precip. not as energetic as gfs but .25"+ or so up 95. cold 850s.. probably marginal surface. starts early too. Euro is a torch there in the LLs....maybe Mt. Vortmax some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 6Z GFS is colder and i'd love it forever if right. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lots if qpf per 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 06z looks kind of meh down there when you look away from the weenie snow maps. You probably want that south a bit, even considering the garbage GFS low level depiction which is too warm this time of year. Area Just NW of DC probably would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 06z looks kind of meh down there when you look away from the weenie snow maps. You probably want that south a bit, even considering the garbage GFS low level depiction which is too warm this time of year. Area Just NW of DC probably would be ok. yeah, but at 84 hrs out, this is a good place to be considering the model trend actually, 6Z NAM is probably closer to where we ultimately want to be http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Given how the models performed lately who knows. I wouldn't be shocked if it did tick NW a bit...but the gfs op could still be a NW outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Watching this evolve on the models has been fun. We've had lots of scenarios on the table with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Given how the models performed lately who knows. I wouldn't be shocked if it did tick NW a bit...but the gfs op could still be a NW outlier. Even so, it's pretty warm and at 90 hrs has temps above freezing from the ground to just below 850 mb with the max temp in the layer being 4.2C. Hardly a snow sounding. The nam may end up being colder but....it's pretty far out in the nam time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Even so, it's pretty warm and at 90 hrs has temps above freezing from the ground to just below 850 mb with the max temp in the layer being 4.2C. Hardly a snow sounding. The nam may end up being colder but....it's pretty far out in the nam time range. Yeah it was kind of mild and the 850 low track isn't the best with borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah it was kind of mild and the 850 low track isn't the best with borderline temps. gotta hope for trends as is usually the case in the MA, and especially this early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 12Z NAM is continuing the trend to a colder solution, at least through 60 hrs (vs. 6z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 colder solution NAM was showing is leading to a more suppressed precip shield such a fine line to get it to snow in these parts EDIT: slower too, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 84hrs, it is certainly slower with the evolution, but 84 hr sim/radar says we should get some precip http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M plus, thicknesses aren't bad, though I'm sure "some met" will tell us how warm the lower levels are, and will be right based on soundings http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M but this is the end of the NAM run, so I'm looking for trends and they are still positive fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 12Z GFS - LOOKs interesting N&W of I-95 Northern VA - MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 12Z GFS - LOOKs interesting N&W of I-95 Northern VA - MD EURO should be interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EURO should be interesting as well. If we could get 1 inch...just 1...it would be a victory. I wish we had some breathing room with 850s. This time of year you want to be nestled above the 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This might as well be the winter model discussion forum for Hawaii. Any clue what the Euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro juiced up more, also a bit colder. .50"+ across DC/Balt much of N MD. 4-8" snow over S/SE PA into NJ. 1+" snow starts NW of DC and Balt. Actually, Balt probably in 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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