Ian Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Euro cold 850s.. drop to about -6C near DC as event goes. Snow maps don't give anything tho. 1/4" liquid E/W thru DC, dropping to 0 around MD/PA border. Snow mainly in higher elevation.. jackpot 3-4" w/nw of lynchburg. Sfc temps are marginal tho would seem to support chance if we could get heavier precip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Dumps the cold on us at end of Nov. Highs near freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Euro cold 850s.. drop to about -6C near DC as event goes. Snow maps don't give anything tho. 1/4" liquid E/W thru DC, dropping to 0 around MD/PA border. Snow mainly in higher elevation.. jackpot 3-4" w/nw of lynchburg. Sfc temps are marginal tho would seem to support chance if we could get heavier precip north. It looks like with the track that we would get snow...perhaps enough to give us an inch after dark, if we can get some moderate snow...sun angle is favorable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It looks like with the track that we would get snow...perhaps enough to give us an inch after dark, if we can get some moderate snow...sun angle is favorable.... Yeah pretty good run might have more potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Yeah pretty good run might have more potential too. a 1-2" event to kick off winter would be cool...of course I expect all rain down here in death valley (actually I will be house sitting in CoHi)...woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 some of the SV 12z 6-10 day ensemble analogs gave us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Yeah pretty good run might have more potential too. good thing the GFS takes a COV to CLE track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jury still out huh? I find the model differences to be interesting. HPC mentioned the energy responsible for the storm was still NWS of Alaska so I guess that might explain the discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Jury still out huh? I find the model differences to be interesting. HPC mentioned the energy responsible for the storm was still NWS of Alaska so I guess that might explain the discrepancies. 3-6"...lollipops of 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 3-6"...lollipops of 8" Bring it on. I have no real hopes on this one, but reading others thoughts makes me optimistic for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Fascenating how the Euro has started the supressed theme the last two runs and I'd guess the NAM would end up silmilar with the results if extrapolated out. Since every other model (besides the JMA which we don't count ) is a cutter, I can't wait to see what wins out. I think I know the answer already: we've seen the Euro lead the way and every other model eventually catch on time and time again... one good example was the late Jan 2010 storm and again Christmas 2010. Assuming this is something other than a full cutter- there's some potential to watch, even if it is a backside flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Fascenating how the Euro has started the supressed theme the last two runs and I'd guess the NAM would end up silmilar with the results if extrapolated out. Since every other model (besides the JMA which we don't count ) is a cutter, I can't wait to see what wins out. I think I know the answer already: we've seen the Euro lead the way and every other model eventually catch on time and time again... one good example was the late Jan 2010 storm and again Christmas 2010. Assuming this is something other than a full cutter- there's some potential to watch, even if it is a backside flurry. Maybe it ends up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 0z Euro even more suppressed (non-event) with next week's storm, quite shocking considering other models....could be a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 0z Euro even more suppressed (non-event) with next week's storm, quite shocking considering other models....could be a fluke run. 6z GFS took major shift towards the Euro. Much weaker and further east than previous runs. Kinda looks like this could end up being a weak clipper that slides off the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z GFS took major shift towards the Euro. Much weaker and further east than previous runs. Kinda looks like this could end up being a weak clipper that slides off the MA coast. I don't like "thread the needle" type events. The low is not amplified enough to bring down sufficient cold air and there is only a very thin area of snowfall north of the 850mb low with marginal rates because the precip is very light.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I don't like "thread the needle" type events. The low is not amplified enough to bring down sufficient cold air and there is only a very thin area of snowfall north of the 850mb low with marginal rates because the precip is very light.... 12z GFS bombs out up northeast of MA just as 0z EURO showed. But it looks like at this time, we are done with any lakes cutter. Might still have a few more adjustments to the southeast before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z cmc and 12z gfs nice event. Hope euro is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 euro looks lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 heh Into the pit with thee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 euro looks lame Strung out and such...hmm.....too weak to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 heh That looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 no late month cold blast .. most of country torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 no late month cold blast .. most of country torching starting tomorrow Euro max temps look something like this..seasonal...GFS mos listed 2nd mid 40s, 46 mid 40s, 47 low 50s, 51 50, 48 upper 40s, 47 upper 40s, 48 mid 50s, 48 50 mid 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 starting tomorrow Euro max temps look something like this..seasonal...GFS mos listed 2nd mid 40s, 46 mid 40s, 47 low 50s, 51 50, 48 upper 40s, 47 upper 40s, 48 mid 50s, 48 50 mid 50s yeah it's not really warm here but the central us is pretty mild. the cold blast looked pretty transient on earlier runs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12Z NAM (linked below) heading towards some sort of event and 18Z hasn't finished running to compare http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F23%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This might end up being too far south or flat. Euro wins again? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 00z gfs gives us a few inches before it changes to sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS is colder at 850 at least and fairly juicy in DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS is colder at 850 at least and fairly juicy in DC area. Snow? 2m temps are in the 30s it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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