MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Anything down the pipe after the baby storm today? Will it be a mild or cold Thanksgiving? I'm still putting my money down on the 12/5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks fairly mild through the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. The big trough out west will give us a glancing blow and a short cool down mid-next week before it lifts out. Today's 12z Euro and GFS both show a Bering-straight ridge start to reach up over the pole by the weekend before Thanksgiving (17-18th), which would turn the AO and possibly NAO back to negative territory after a ~2 week excursion in positive land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks fairly mild through the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. The big trough out west will give us a glancing blow and a short cool down mid-next week before it lifts out. Today's 12z Euro and GFS both show a Bering-straight ridge start to reach up over the pole by the weekend before Thanksgiving (17-18th), which would turn the AO and possibly NAO back to negative territory after a ~2 week excursion in positive land. I'm thinking just about the same thing. The upcoming warmish pattern could last a full 3 weeks. AO ens forecasts keep a pretty solid +1sd to +3sd range through the 22nd. If the +ao regime becomes stable it will be tough to break down quickly (stating obvious of course). I saw the same ridge you pointed out. I would like to think that it happens in some similar way as modeled but just a hunch that it takes a bit longer than we "want" it to. My best guess would be two warm periods with a progressive seasonal front in between. Then some sort of lakes cutter/apps runner late month followed by a return a -nao / hudson bay vortex with a series of reinforcing cold shots sometime in late Nov early Dec. The best part of my guess is that if I'm wrong, who cares? I'm a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I am not expecting anything wintry or cold until after Thanksgiving looking at the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Does a third of the members on the 00Z GFS ensemble showing a ridge in the west and a trough in the east Thanksgiving weekend count as something down the pipe? Nah, I didn't think so either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It's never to early to look at the 336 GFS. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It's never to early to look at the 336 GFS. Book it. East trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 Thats a pretty swell cold front youve got there..... just in time for carving the turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Thats a pretty swell cold front youve got there..... just in time for carving the turkey The GFS is still working out the details. It is deadly at 336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Thats a pretty swell cold front youve got there..... just in time for carving the turkey Woo cold fronts! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Woo cold fronts! lol Yeah perfect. Cold, windy, partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Yeah perfect. Cold, windy, partly cloudy. But at least the 850's will be below freezing...until right before the next batch of precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Yeah perfect. Cold, windy, partly cloudy. 2010-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 2010-2011 Much better than 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Much better than 2011-2012 I could argue against that all day, but I'll save everyone the headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Guidance is slowly converging on the timing of the breakdown of the +nao/ao regime we've moved into. Looks like the next meaningful cool down will be on or shortly after thanksgiving. I'd say the last week of the month is more likely. Does it mean we are moving towards a cold start to Dec? No ideas yet. At least it doesn't look like a warm end to Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Guidance is slowly converging on the timing of the breakdown of the +nao/ao regime we've moved into. Looks like the next meaningful cool down will be on or shortly after thanksgiving. I'd say the last week of the month is more likely. Does it mean we are moving towards a cold start to Dec? No ideas yet. At least it doesn't look like a warm end to Nov. Mild through Thanksgiving, with the colder stuff coming in about a week later? I'd hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Him says this winter is not last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Hm says dec probably starts cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Hm drums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Him hm HM Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Mild through Thanksgiving, with the colder stuff coming in about a week later? I'd hit that. So would I. In fact, an ultimate scenario would be mild trough Thanksgiving Day, cold front passing through late in the day, Fri/Sat as days to cool the ground, massive storm develops, snow starts late afternoon on Sunday while im outside putting out Christmas decorations. That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Mild through Thanksgiving, with the colder stuff coming in about a week later? I'd hit that. I'm feeling pretty good about the call. 12z euro and gfs both show signs @ day 10 of the warm pattern breaking down. Latest euro wants to start pumping up the PNA at the end of the run. But we know how it works. AO is looking to hang around +1-2ish for 10+ days. Hasn't happened since early september. That kind of pattern always takes a bit more work to swing the other way. So if you believe the general idea of the AO/NAO breaking down and heading back to neg territory (i believe it) then you probably need to add 5+ days to the current long range solutions. That's why I think the week after turkey day will be the first shot and a period of some pretty chilly air. If actually does work out that way and the hints of a decent ridge forming out west then I guess you could say there's potential for frozen precip in that window if there is any precip around of course. That's a WAG on my part but I will be focused on the timeframe for the next couple weeks because there isn't much else to do. Tracking warmth is kinda boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 So would I. In fact, an ultimate scenario would be mild trough Thanksgiving Day, cold front passing through late in the day, Fri/Sat as days to cool the ground, massive storm develops, snow starts late afternoon on Sunday while im outside putting out Christmas decorations. That would be awesome. I have my own selfish reasons for wanting Thanksgiving warmth, but that sounds like an awesome way to start the Christmas season! I'm feeling pretty good about the call. 12z euro and gfs both show signs @ day 10 of the warm pattern breaking down. Latest euro wants to start pumping up the PNA at the end of the run. But we know how it works. AO is looking to hang around +1-2ish for 10+ days. Hasn't happened since early september. That kind of pattern always takes a bit more work to swing the other way. So if you believe the general idea of the AO/NAO breaking down and heading back to neg territory (i believe it) then you probably need to add 5+ days to the current long range solutions. That's why I think the week after turkey day will be the first shot and a period of some pretty chilly air. If actually does work out that way and the hints of a decent ridge forming out west then I guess you could say there's potential for frozen precip in that window if there is any precip around of course. That's a WAG on my part but I will be focused on the timeframe for the next couple weeks because there isn't much else to do. Tracking warmth is kinda boring. We all know what it's like to track a pattern change. I'm not too terribly worried about tracking that change for weeks on end, but I have less skill than you, so that's just a shot in the dark. I'll take my chances with enjoying the mild weather coming up and looking for the switch to a cooler regime. It's not like cold will do much for us in November anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 What warm pattern? It's been a lot colder than normal the last two weeks. Temps actually go to normal today, then above for a few days, then right back below normal. It seems that people are forgetting that our average high is still 60 or 61 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 You're right Fredwx. It's not a "warm" pattern. More normal than anything else. I think tracking 2 snow storms in as many weeks messed with our heads. We're in a pretty normal/seasonal patter the next couple weeks. Prob for the best because climo doesn't start becoming our friend until Dec anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Not snow but it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I hope those cut-offs keep coming all winter cause' I'll take my chances w/temps in DEC-FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I hope those cut-offs keep coming all winter cause' I'll take my chances w/temps in DEC-FEB It is eyeopening but I'm not sure what it means. The one that is showing up on the recent runs has no blocking and the flow is far from ideal. I'm not saying that is ever had any chance at being anything because IMO it wouldn't probably be a rainer even in a month. Guidance still converging on some blocking coming back towards late month. Cold air source not having a good signal yet but that's fine. Even if the NAO goes negative but the AO keeps stuff bottled up, Canadian continental is plenty cold so any closed low passing to our south and east has potential. I'm cautiously encouraged by the most recent flip to a fairly anomalous +nao/ao doesn't look to have legs. I got all nervous reading skierinvermont's strat analysis. Showing similarities to 06-07. Blech. All eyes on the pac later on this month. Aleutian ridge ftw and goa vortex ftl. Which will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I've been really paying attention the the mets in the SNE forum. Very good stuff. I think I have a full grasp about the ridging near AK and the downstream affects. This map really helps visualize how it helps us: It's easy to see how the flow buckles downstream and the placement of the features. Replace the ridging over AK with a big nasty vortex and you can see why most of last year was dominated by either flat pac zonal or ridging in east. Of course the ridge near AK can't do it all. It just increases potential. Doesn't mean there will be blocking in place. It's awful tough to time something with an amplified pattern when it's progressive. But without some sort of amplification we usually stand little chance at snow in these parts so at the very least we could see windows of opportunity if this pattern holds in Dec. The stj is a huge wildcard this winter too. Will the gulf open for business or will it all be NS stuff? If I had to take a wag I would say the stj is not going to be a friend. Our Nino fizzled. As soon as the Nino clearly showed virtually no chance of weak/mod status I ruled out the juicy southern stream having it's way with us. Someone please correct me if this is flawed thinking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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