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Son of Sandy Observations/ Nowcast Nov 6/7


Baroclinic Zone

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Intersting enough, but on my ride from Nyack, NY to Brooklyn tonight, It was the Hebron/ Marlborough areas that seemed to have the most snow along my route. Of course the Wilimantic black snow hole had zero, and Uconn had patches.

Although all the snow will melt, the torch only looks to last two days. Tomorrow is still cloudy and chilly with temperatures around 50F, Sunday-Monday torches, and then the cold front gets through quickly Tuesday morning and brings back sub 0C 850s. Wed-Fri looks around normal for New England with the coast seeing highs in the lower 50s while interior elevated areas see highs in the 40s. Low temperatures should also be cold with the high pressure almost directly overhead. We might be able to "save" most of our negative departure with these transient cold shots before the -NAO pattern returns around 11/20.

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First... Snowfall records from this Nor'Easter 2012.

http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121109more_snow_records_from_noreaster_2012

Second... A look at the 850 temps crashing when the storm was strengthening. Without this level under freezing. Dewpoints on left, temps on right. Background is the 850mb temps.

Map57.jpg

Third... here's some pics from me. 6" melted to .90" liquid.

Trees bending.

129.jpg

Leaves not even picked up yet.

081.jpg

Morning after in Greenwich on Merrit

IMAG2438.jpg

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At the confrence Kocin said Snowtober was more typical of a mid winter setup than an early season Setup.

This noreaster however fits the pattern of early season snows. A slow moving closed H5 low with a lot of dry air to the north.

I would argue this storm had mid winter characteristics too. Dewpoints of 9F don't happen often in early November, but the setup of the gyre of a trough with a s/w spawning cyclogenesis was more early season.

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Also..kudos (again) to the Euro and the RPM lol.

While the Euro was grossly underdone on qpf(as it's known to be in winter storms)..it def had the right idea of this being a cold storm with snow to the coast.In the end it may not even have been quite cold enough..but it certainly had the right idea.

Also how about the RPM absolutely nailing that death band that crushed ORH down to my area...Seems like maybe we can actually use that model with some sense of confidence this winter.

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Also..kudos (again) to the Euro and the RPM lol.

While the Euro was grossly underdone on qpf(as it's known to be in winter storms)..it def had the right idea of this being a cold storm with snow to the coast.In the end it may not even have been quite cold enough..but it certainly had the right idea.

Also how about the RPM absolutely nailing that death band that crushed ORH down to my area...Seems like maybe we can actually use that model with some sense of confidence this winter.

It was the RAP/RUC that nailed the ORH-TOL band...well unless the RPM did too, but I don't recall what the RPM said. The GFS first hinted at that band beign where it was when it shifted east that morning...it had a nice weenie band signal over central areas.

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Also..kudos (again) to the Euro and the RPM lol.

While the Euro was grossly underdone on qpf(as it's known to be in winter storms)..it def had the right idea of this being a cold storm with snow to the coast.In the end it may not even have been quite cold enough..but it certainly had the right idea.

Also how about the RPM absolutely nailing that death band that crushed ORH down to my area...Seems like maybe we can actually use that model with some sense of confidence this winter.

I think the euro QPF is decent in the winter.

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I was talking to Will the night before the storm and I guessed 2.8" as a ballpark for him and Kevin..lol. I did think HubbDave and MPM would get more than that the night before, but what a change that day when everything came together more to the east, and the airmass was so dam chilly. I knew things changed for the snowier as soon as I saw the 06z GFS.

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