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Son of Sandy Observations/ Nowcast Nov 6/7


Baroclinic Zone

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A lot of lows that took this track would have extended heavy to here ENY, but this one was very compact. The models were correct about that. ECM was way too far west with the deformation until about two days ago when it blinked.

With a stall in that position, man oh what could have been had the dynamics continued.

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Warm air seclusion!!!

Euro hinted at that for days.

I can say this was the biggest nightmare to try to sleep through. There were major trees down on Rte 3 last night. Once again neighbors have lost parts of their roofs and the beach must be a nightmare. This will be far worse than Sandy on our side for storm surge as we are at 24+ hours now of this nonsense.

We've essentially had almost tropical storm force winds for a full day now right on the water. I'll check the beaches later but I'm expecting significant damage. Keep in mind homes don't flood here they're all up high or behind huge dunes that didn't breach even in 78....but the amount of beach gone, stairs, boardwalks etc...going to be impressive.

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Scoots... looking at the 00z OKX sounding you can see that pretty unstable layer just above 700mb at the bottom of the SGZ. With strong frotogenesis and an unstable layer above through the base of the SGZ you're ready to rock in some of those bands.

While I can't diagnose CSI without looking at a cross section over the area I'm willing to bet upright/convective instability was the main driver.

There was definitely CI. It gets difficult to tell what drives what, but you figure increasing mid level frontogenesis will facilitate CSI by definition since CSI is related to temp gradients. That dryslot then adds some instability and boom. Usually, good CI leads to TSSN so we didn't have that, but when radar is almost void of echoes east of the main band indicating a DS and mid level lapse rates wete like 8C SE of LI, I would think that leads to the band destabilizing.

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There was definitely CI. It gets difficult to tell what drives what, but you figure increasing mid level frontogenesis will facilitate CSI by definition since CSI is related to temp gradients. That dryslot then adds some instability and boom. Usually, good CI leads to TSSN so we didn't have that, but when radar is almost void of echoes east of the main band indicating a DS and mid level lapse rates wete like 8C SE of LI, I would think that leads to the band destabilizing.

I thought one of the parameters for CSI was not having CI. It you have CI your updrafts are going vertical no question... not slantwise.

I could be wrong here though.

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I thought one of the parameters for CSI was not having CI. It you have CI your updrafts are going vertical no question... not slantwise.

I could be wrong here though.

Oh you are right, what I mean was that there some areas may have had more CI. Basically different types of instability were involved. CSI is only unstable to slantwise motion, but the dryslot can help destabilize things a bit more so that CSI is enhanced, but not destroyed by pure upright convection.

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