ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My understanding is that if that strong band coming from Long Island Sound stays together, most of the shoreline west of say, Old Saybrook, could get a nice quick coating of snow, before becoming more of a mix to even just plain rain. You guys will wetbulb down to like 34-35 probably before the marine influences kick in. It's already pretty moist down there (39/32), so wetbulbing will be minimal compared to a place like DXR(38/27). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My understanding is that if that strong band coming from Long Island Sound stays together, most of the shoreline west of say, Old Saybrook, could get a nice quick coating of snow, before becoming more of a mix to even just plain rain. I was thinking the same. We've see some of these front ends over perform in recent memory...although the one I recall most vividly which was our first event back in November 2010 I believe was overnight. That was was also a SW flow event as well IIRC. Still...was really surprised the NWS only mentioned the possibility of a mix with sleet and nary a mention of a flake for their shoreline zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Foster, RI with more than all of NE CT? I have cousins there lol. 600' and in a nice little microscale upslope zone with the valley to their east but yeah, obviously hi-res models can't be perfect haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 You guys will wetbulb down to like 34-35 probably before the marine influences kick in. It's already pretty moist down there (39/32), so wetbulbing will be minimal compared to a place like DXR(38/27). where's the 39/32 ob? HVN is 39/25...even GON has a DP of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm definitely expecting a sharp gradient across my area. RAP looks like a gets a band pivoting in here from the SE, but it dies as the main band sets up shop just to my S and E. NAM also suggests a significant gradient between CEF and ALB. Depending on the NW extent of the precipitation shield, we may be looking at a situation where one spot gets 4-5" of snow while another 40 miles to the NW gets little or nothing. That said, it's a tough forecast for the Berkshires. I went with 2-4" in south county, 1-3" in north county. There could be a spot 5" in one of the higher spots in the SE corner of the county if the band holds together. Hopefully I can keep the lucky streak going a la 12/26/10, 1/12/11, or 10/29/11, and get a nice meso band (mini version of the aforementioned events) in here for a while later this afternoon and into tonight. Temperature sitting at freezing. Looks and feels like snow. You're on the good side of that gradient, Mitch--I'm envious! I'm figuring the 1-3" looks right for here. It was nice seeing the NAM's earlier runs pushing a lot of qpf further north, but I don't think there's much to be said for that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 There's a really impressive reservoir of cold/dry air to the north. With a solid northerly ageostrophic flow expect a really impressive shot of BL chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 light snow has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 snow is really comming down.the winds are also starting to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 There's a really impressive reservoir of cold/dry air to the north. With a solid northerly ageostrophic flow expect a really impressive shot of BL chill. I'm feeling pretty confident we could see some 4" totals in CT away from the valley...more than just a single weenie ob in northern Litchfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Temp down to 36 here...and we've just started. If we can cool another couple degrees...it will just take a decent 10-15 minute burst to get us our coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm feeling pretty confident we could see some 4" totals in CT away from the valley...more than just a single weenie ob in northern Litchfield. I would feel more confident if the 12z NAM wasn't so ugly looking with a QPF split over us lol. But yeah I think 1-2" most places (even some accumulation at the shoreline??) with 2-4 possible especially up NW of HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Come on radar, bring that beautiful swath of heavy precip to me. How close to the water are you? I'm about 4 miles inland...160 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Temp down to 36 here...and we've just started. If we can cool another couple degrees...it will just take a decent 10-15 minute burst to get us our coating. Congrats--save some for up here. Of course, our temps are doing a little better--29/25. EDIT: GFS gives me a couple flurries, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 my temp went from 40 to 37 in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 You're on the good side of that gradient, Mitch--I'm envious! I'm figuring the 1-3" looks right for here. It was nice seeing the NAM's earlier runs pushing a lot of qpf further north, but I don't think there's much to be said for that depiction. Maybe, I think the best spots to be locally from this event will be on the east slope from Chesterfield or so on south down into NW CT where I feel more confident of a 3-5" event, maybe a spot 6" somewhere in CT. Topography may help you a little even though you're north a bit. I'd go with 2-3" for you. I still think I may be a little too far NW, and topography usually doesn't help me whenever the flow is easterly. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I would feel more confident if the 12z NAM wasn't so ugly looking with a QPF split over us lol. But yeah I think 1-2" most places (even some accumulation at the shoreline??) with 2-4 possible especially up NW of HFD. Yeah...if NAM is right...4" amounts would be near the MA state line...but BDL looking pretty awesome from the NAM bufkit. 0.6" QPF snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 where's the 39/32 ob? HVN is 39/25...even GON has a DP of 30. That was a blend of all the Davis's in westbrook haha not official. My personal one 4 miles inland in westbrook at 190ft is now 36/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GFS is pretty far east. Sorry MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm going 2-4" for ORH. Wouldn't be shocked to see a few higher loolis if the front end band can over perform. The temps are so cold right now that this should stick pretty quickly. Two records should get broken today at ORH...the 1.4" daily snowfall record (1953) should go down, and the 35F record low max (1960) should go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 That is a huge difference between the 12z GFS and 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 gfs is cold here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I would feel more confident if the 12z NAM wasn't so ugly looking with a QPF split over us lol. But yeah I think 1-2" most places (even some accumulation at the shoreline??) with 2-4 possible especially up NW of HFD. I feel more confident that a sleep deprived CT Rain agrees with my forecast from yesterday morning....I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GFS is pretty far east. Sorry MPM. Is there an icon for "smoking cirrus"? My daughter will be so disappointed. That gives me nada. Enjoy easterners, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 rooftops are white and starting to stick to the grass,but not the street. not bad seeing im 100 yard from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Is there an icon for "smoking cirrus"? My daughter will be so disappointed. That gives me nada. Enjoy easterners, though! I don't think it will be that dry for you, however it may be colder and further east with the better snow. We will see. That was quite a jog east for something so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I feel more confident that a sleep deprived CT Rain agrees with my forecast from yesterday morning....I think! lol... I have looked at virtually no weather until this morning. That was a damn good forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 GFS actually has a mild weenie banding signal on it for TOL up near ORH for around 03z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 snow beginning here...38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ORH jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 In house RPM model gives, of all places, Deep River, East Haddam, and Norwich the jackpot snows of 5"...this thing has a solid track record too. 4" in GON, 0" in Cornwall. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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