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Son of Sandy Observations/ Nowcast Nov 6/7


Baroclinic Zone

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Went to bed and it was around 26 degrees, woke up to around 43 degrees, was holding out a little hope for at least a couple of my first flurries, looks like I'll have to wait. I must say that the wind is a lot higher than I thought it would be this early.

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Nam still has the ct dryslot idea

Yeah I mentioned earlier that is possible. I still like wrn CT into wrn MA and northeast to NH as a "max" area..maybe down into nrn ORH hills. Western CT may be a good spot if this band continues like the 6z GFS has. I could see ORH hills getting a boost from NE winds.

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I'm definitely expecting a sharp gradient across my area. RAP looks like a gets a band pivoting in here from the SE, but it dies as the main band sets up shop just to my S and E. NAM also suggests a significant gradient between CEF and ALB. Depending on the NW extent of the precipitation shield, we may be looking at a situation where one spot gets 4-5" of snow while another 40 miles to the NW gets little or nothing. That said, it's a tough forecast for the Berkshires. I went with 2-4" in south county, 1-3" in north county. There could be a spot 5" in one of the higher spots in the SE corner of the county if the band holds together.

Hopefully I can keep the lucky streak going a la 12/26/10, 1/12/11, or 10/29/11, and get a nice meso band (mini version of the aforementioned events) in here for a while later this afternoon and into tonight.

Temperature sitting at freezing. Looks and feels like snow.

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How'd the NAM initialize? It's really trouncing from NJ up through NW CT.

There's something the meso-scale models are seeing though as that's about the same as the nowcast RAP (formerly RUC?)... the sort of "dead zone" between a band over western CT/MA/eastern NY and the stuff more near the coast.

It'll be interesting to see if that occurs. I'm still skeptical looking at the radar right now as I don't see how it just jumps over central and eastern CT, lol.

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I'm definitely expecting a sharp gradient across my area. RAP looks like a gets a band pivoting in here from the SE, but it dies as the main band sets up shop just to my S and E. NAM also suggests a significant gradient between CEF and ALB. Depending on the NW extent of the precipitation shield, we may be looking at a situation where one spot gets 4-5" of snow while another 40 miles to the NW gets little or nothing. That said, it's a tough forecast for the Berkshires. I went with 2-4" in south county, 1-3" in north county. There could be a spot 5" in one of the higher spots in the SE corner of the county if the band holds together.

Hopefully I can keep the lucky streak going a la 12/26/10, 1/12/11, or 10/29/11, and get a nice meso band (mini version of the aforementioned events) in here for a while later this afternoon and into tonight.

Temperature sitting at freezing. Looks and feels like snow.

Yea I like the mini death band too. enjoy

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Why does Box radar show no echoes overCT yet OKX shows snow over a good chunk of Ct?

The farther you are from the radar the higher the beam is...so the BOX radar isn't picking up the lower echos that OKX is.

First flakes of the season just started here. Hoping for a bit of a bust so we can eek out a coating here, but I'm not holding my breath.

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