11/7 - 11/8 Nor'easter Obs

[NorthShoreWx]

The NYC area has been on an incredible roll since Winter 00-01. The 2000s were the first decade since the 1960s to average 30" snowfall per year. 09-10 and 10-11 were the snowiest consecutive winters with 113.3" falling. Only 33% of winters since 00-01 (4/12) have had below average snowfall, and 50% of winters since 00-01 (6/12) have had 40" or more, which is about 150% of Central Park's historical average and around 160% of average if you use the 30-year normals. Winter 02-03 through Winter 05-06 were the first time KNYC had ever had four consecutive 40" winters.

I do agree that LI has been incredibly lucky though, perhaps doing the best in this historic stretch as well as Monmouth/Ocean County in NJ which has been receiving far more snow, especially large storms, than climo would favor, particularly due to 09-10 and the February 5th Nor'easter. Storms that stand out for Long Island over other NYC areas in my mind are PDII (JFK had close to 25", so South Shore must have been similar), Dec 5, 2003 Nor'easter (Smithtown had 15.5"), January 27, 2004 super clipper (Smithtown had 13.5"), January 23, 2005 (Brookhaven ended up 78.5" seasonal thanks in part to the January blizzard), December 19, 2008 (North Shore LI and Westchester had close to 8"), December 19, 2009 (Upton recorded 26.9", breaking their record), January 12, 2011 (14.5" fell here in Westchester and LI was similar), and this recent snowstorm (Nassau County had around 8" but Freehold NJ had 13")....

Hi Nate,

What I had in mind when I made the post was in regard to being in the right place at the right time for some of the most significant def bands that have formed in recent years.

No doubt the 2000s were a good decade for both NYC and LI, but the prime locations for cashing in on the best bands have shifted from eastern LI for much of that period to NYC/ eastern NJ over the past 3 seasons. I am talking about the biggies here...not the run of the mill stuff; i.e., late Feb 2010, December 2010, late January 2011, October 2011 and yesterday.

IMBY, I was just a hair west of the prime jackpot zone through much of the 2000's and have been considerably east of the jackpots since the shift about three years ago. One of the exceptions was 1/27/2004. That 13.5" was mine and we were definitely in the sweet spot for that one. The 15" report for 12/2003 was also mine, but several places just to the east had around 20" for that one.

As William pointed out, NYC had a lot to make up for following the 1970 - 2000 period.

[NorthShoreWx]

Aargh...why do I do this to myself. Thinking about 1/27/2004, I went back and looked at some of the photos. The spruce tree in the center of this photo is one of many on the block that blew over during Sandy:

http://www.northshor...0128Street1.jpg

The spruces behind the buried car in this photo all blew over in Sandy as well:

http://www.northshor...0128Buried1.jpg

I know worse things happened, but I am heartbroken over some of the beautiful trees that we have lost. Spruces seem to have been hit disproportionately with many being uprooted, including this one (that was behind the buried car in the 2004 photo):

[uofmiami]

Not a tree guy, but maybe the Spruces don't have a strong root system like an Oak tree does.

[NorthShoreWx]

Not a tree guy, but maybe the Spruces don't have a strong root system like an Oak tree does.

I am thinking shallow rooted, but they haven't been a problem in other storms.

The oaks are very difficult to uproot, but they have the habit of dropping tree sized limbs that fall from a great height after being snapped off. Oaks that snapped in two did much more damage to houses during Sandy. The uprooted trees tend to lean over a lot more gradually and don't hit with as much force.

[famartin]

I am thinking shallow rooted, but they haven't been a problem in other storms.

That's the key, Spruces are notoriously susceptible to windthrow, due to the shallow roots.

[wolfie09]

Freehold nj

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=175655

[FreeRain]

8.5 inches here in Central nassau. Great storm, other than for those who lost power. Trees in my area decimated.

~8.0 in N. Syosset. Lost power for 13 hours.

[Isotherm]

Can see the gradient in Monmouth with current snow cover. Looks like inland sections already lost about 4-6" today.

Nothing on the coast to 4-8" pockets in Freehold/Howell/Colts Neck down through Jackson.

[psv88]

Cool little shot of the snow on the island as of 4pm...shows that after melting, 4-8 remains only on the highest elevations on the island...the hills where i am in nassau and Jaynes Hill, elevation 400 feet in South Huntington, in suffolk...elevation even plays a roll here.

[Guest Pamela]

Cool little shot of the snow on the island as of 4pm...shows that after melting, 4-8 remains only on the highest elevations on the island...the hills where i am in nassau and Jaynes Hill, elevation 400 feet in South Huntington, in suffolk...elevation even plays a roll here.

Having lived in Plainview for a 23 year span, I took measurments atop Jaynes Hill regularly and frequently posited that it is the snowiest spot on the Island.

[Isotherm]

The NYC area has been on an incredible roll since Winter 00-01. The 2000s were the first decade since the 1960s to average 30" snowfall per year. 09-10 and 10-11 were the snowiest consecutive winters with 113.3" falling. Only 33% of winters since 00-01 (4/12) have had below average snowfall, and 50% of winters since 00-01 (6/12) have had 40" or more, which is about 150% of Central Park's historical average and around 160% of average if you use the 30-year normals. Winter 02-03 through Winter 05-06 were the first time KNYC had ever had four consecutive 40" winters.

I do agree that LI has been incredibly lucky though, perhaps doing the best in this historic stretch as well as Monmouth/Ocean County in NJ which has been receiving far more snow, especially large storms, than climo would favor, particularly due to 09-10 and the February 5th Nor'easter. Storms that stand out for Long Island over other NYC areas in my mind are PDII (JFK had close to 25", so South Shore must have been similar), Dec 5, 2003 Nor'easter (Smithtown had 15.5"), January 27, 2004 super clipper (Smithtown had 13.5"), January 23, 2005 (Brookhaven ended up 78.5" seasonal thanks in part to the January blizzard), December 19, 2008 (North Shore LI and Westchester had close to 8"), December 19, 2009 (Upton recorded 26.9", breaking their record), January 12, 2011 (14.5" fell here in Westchester and LI was similar), and this recent snowstorm (Nassau County had around 8" but Freehold NJ had 13")....

It's been an awesome time to be a weather nut.

This latest storm adds another to the list of major events for Monmouth County since 2000. My Colts Neck records - the following storms were 12" or greater:

Dec 30 00

Feb 03

Dec 03

Jan 05

Feb 06

Mar 09

Dec 09

Feb 5 10

Feb 10 10

Feb 25 10

Dec 10

Jan 11

Nov 12

13 events since 2000 that produced 12"+! That's averaging about one MECS per year.

[Guest Pamela]

Hi Nate,

What I had in mind when I made the post was in regard to being in the right place at the right time for some of the most significant def bands that have formed in recent years.

No doubt the 2000s were a good decade for both NYC and LI, but the prime locations for cashing in on the best bands have shifted from eastern LI for much of that period to NYC/ eastern NJ over the past 3 seasons. I am talking about the biggies here...not the run of the mill stuff; i.e., late Feb 2010, December 2010, late January 2011, October 2011 and yesterday.

IMBY, I was just a hair west of the prime jackpot zone through much of the 2000's and have been considerably east of the jackpots since the shift about three years ago. One of the exceptions was 1/27/2004. That 13.5" was mine and we were definitely in the sweet spot for that one. The 15" report for 12/2003 was also mine, but several places just to the east had around 20" for that one.

As William pointed out, NYC had a lot to make up for following the 1970 - 2000 period.

Of the 8 "Big Ones" from March 2009 to October 2011; Long Island did very well with the March 1, 2009, December 19, 2009, February 11, 2010, January 11, 2011, and January 27, 2011 storms.

They did ok with the February 25, 2010 and December 26, 2010 (but not so well compared to everyone else).

They brought up the rear and were basically shut out of the October 30, 2011 storm.

[Isotherm]

It's been an awesome time to be a weather nut.

This latest storm adds another to the list of major events for Monmouth County since 2000. My Colts Neck records - the following storms were 12" or greater:

Dec 30 00

Feb 03

Dec 03

Jan 05

Feb 06

Mar 09

Dec 09

Feb 5 10

Feb 10 10

Feb 25 10

Dec 10

Jan 11

Nov 12

13 events since 2000 that produced 12"+! That's averaging about one MECS per year.

And more than 50% of those events featured Monmouth receiving some of the highest totals in NJ.

[rickwx1006]

• ^{Still without power for me, so i had to dig my car out and come into work today. I'm hearing from JCP&L maybe by Sunday it will be back! ha ha ha What an extreme week or two this has been for many of us. Like some posters from Monmouth are saying, there were numerous branches snapping off last night by me and for those that are still hanging on and drooping all the way to the ground, they almost look like Palm trees or something!! ha ha ha I still can't believe we had THIS much snow here in early November!!! Unreal! Anyway, before I lost power I recorded 8.1 inches of snow around 12:30am, then went out early this morning to record the same exact amount. So it's possible I may have received a bit more in between those hours and perhaps it compacted down before my morning reading, but still, 8.1 inches is unfreakin-believable!! ha ha ha Some of my friends on the other side of town are reporting 10 inches. But 8.1 imby.}
  

Just catching up on the posts from the last 24 hours now. Power finally returned to our portion of Howell Township at 7:35 PM; power was out from 8:00 PM last night (power was lost just as I was getting home from work in NYC and enduring a bus ride of over 2 hours (inching down Route 9). Noticed in mid-afternoon that power was restored to some sections on the east side of Route 9, but not my area (a mile west of Route 9). Lots of power trucks from Ohio in the area. We received about 8 inches since we were just south and east of the 12-inch pockets in Freehold and Jackson. There is severe tree damage in Howell. The wooded area behind my house has many trees down; sad, but fortunately they all fell within the woods.

Noticed many trees down in driving around the area; some looked to be 50 - 100 years old. 75% of the smaller Plum/ flowering trees which were planted by the Township in the lat 15 years or so all gone. We've lost more trees in the last 2 - 3 years than in my prior 25 years of living in Howell. Not good.

[uncle W]

not only are we setting records for snowfall but since 2002 we have had our share of deluges and tornados...

[donsutherland1]

great pictures Don...Hope all is well...This storm will melt in two days like last years storm unless you recieved 12" or so...

Thanks Uncle W. I picked up 6"-8" (6" fell right near the Long Island Sound and about a mile inland there was around 8"). I lost power for a time yesterday, but it was restored last evening.

FWIW, there was a nor'easter that brought 6"-8" snow to NYC on November 1-2, 1810. Winter 1810-11 proved to be a snowy one. Hopefully, Winter 2012-13 will more closely resemble that winter than 1989-90, which also saw a November snowstorm.

[SnoSki14]

Thanks Uncle W. I picked up 6"-8" (6" fell right near the Long Island Sound and about a mile inland there was around 8"). I lost power for a time yesterday, but it was restored last evening.

FWIW, there was a nor'easter that brought 6"-8" snow to NYC on November 1-2, 1810. Winter 1810-11 proved to be a snowy one. Hopefully, Winter 2012-13 will more closely resemble that winter than 1989-90, which also saw a November snowstorm.

Any thoughts on the Euro monthlies, heard it has a very positive NAO and some believe there's a good chance the NAO will be positive this winter, chances of another 2011-2012 repeat?

[Chaser25973]

Has the average temperature increased since the year 2002?

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Im in my car charging my phone cause I'm still without power. Hahaha i was trying to respond to rick from howell but i guess it wont work. A section of rt 9 south in marlboro is still without power too so hopefully its just a matter of time. I keep checking the jcpl website for updates and their arent too many of us left in town without power. We have a gas fireplace to keep us toasty tonight just in case.

[Sundog]

Well the ground isn't warm anymore lol. All water melted during the day yesterday is frozen as well as the snow. Frozen solid.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

still no power. Got down to 52 degrees in my house so it wasn't too bad last night. I guess I'll be asking for a generator for Christmas this year. ha ha ha

[donsutherland1]

Any thoughts on the Euro monthlies, heard it has a very positive NAO and some believe there's a good chance the NAO will be positive this winter, chances of another 2011-2012 repeat?

It's too soon to tell. The Euro monthlies might well be responding to the current disappearance of blocking. I'm still working on my winter thoughts (should be posted around or just after Thanksgiving Day) and the blocking issue will probably be the last thing I refine. Odds still favor more blocking than last winter. ENSO is a matter of concern. A neutral ENSO could greatly reduce the prospects for wintry weather. Having said all that, Winter 2012-13 snowfall should exceed last winter's dismal figures for the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions. Prospects of a Kocin-Uccellini-type snowstorm are higher than they were last winter, but such a large-scale snowstorm is not as likely as it was during Winter 2009-10 (ENSO-extreme blocking combination). Another accumulating snowfall this month could provide a signal of above normal to much above normal winter snowfall.

[psv88]

It's too soon to tell. The Euro monthlies might well be responding to the current disappearance of blocking. I'm still working on my winter thoughts (should be posted around or just after Thanksgiving Day) and the blocking issue will probably be the last thing I refine. Odds still favor more blocking than last winter. ENSO is a matter of concern. A neutral ENSO could greatly reduce the prospects for wintry weather. Having said all that, Winter 2012-13 snowfall should has already exceeded last winter's dismal figures for the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions. Prospects of a Kocin-Uccellini-type snowstorm are higher than they were last winter, but such a large-scale snowstorm is not as likely as it was during Winter 2009-10 (ENSO-extreme blocking combination). Another accumulating snowfall this month could provide a signal of above normal to much above normal winter snowfall.

Fixed.

[Isotherm]

It's too soon to tell. The Euro monthlies might well be responding to the current disappearance of blocking. I'm still working on my winter thoughts (should be posted around or just after Thanksgiving Day) and the blocking issue will probably be the last thing I refine. Odds still favor more blocking than last winter. ENSO is a matter of concern. A neutral ENSO could greatly reduce the prospects for wintry weather. Having said all that, Winter 2012-13 snowfall should exceed last winter's dismal figures for the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions. Prospects of a Kocin-Uccellini-type snowstorm are higher than they were last winter, but such a large-scale snowstorm is not as likely as it was during Winter 2009-10 (ENSO-extreme blocking combination). Another accumulating snowfall this month could provide a signal of above normal to much above normal winter snowfall.

Pretty much on the same page Don. I'm also waiting until around Thanksgiving due mainly to uncertainties regarding blocking. There are a few conflicting signals but I think we all agree we're looking at a better winter than last year's disaster. Heck - it's already better in CNJ. 5" more than 2011-12's total with 12-13" in the bank.

[Allsnow]

Ended up with 6.5...plowed for the 2nd straight fall...amazing...really snowed heavy wed night

[MJO812]

[psv88]

Still have 2-3 inches snowcover and dropped down to 33 last night, this snow has some staying power

[Guest Pamela]

Still have 2-3 inches snowcover and dropped down to 33 last night, this snow has some staying power

Besides short days and low temps, cloudiness is an integral component in the maintenance of a snowpack. Snowcover persists in hilly terrain longer than flat areas for the obvious reasons + the fact that hilly areas tend to be much cloudier than flat ones as the undulating terrain often creates some of its own weather...

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

finally got power back a couple hours ago!! This nightmare is finally over! Kids go back to school tomorrow for first time in 2 weeks.

[famartin]

Plotted the New Jersey snowfall totals from the PNS, COOP and CoCoRaHS...