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GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread PART II

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Central/Western States

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OhioValleyWx

OhioValleyWx

Posted
Posted

How is everyone doing?

I think the fact that the modeling appears to be very unsettled even in a short to mid term period makes any long term prognostication very suspect. I was all over a warmer January a few weeks ago but the fact the storms are cutting up far west or way under the blocking regime; that this blocking is a different breed. I do think some fluctuation is occurring but it more than likely is just a brief reprieve before we start a whole new blocking scheme for the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. I do believe that warmth is going to stay in for the southern Plains and Texas (not much change overall) and will probably be a little more northeast than what has been for December but the real battle is going to set up from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. When looking at several things I cannot remember the last time we had this cold of a PDO combined with a warm but cooling AMO and inordinate blocking. We all have analogs to look at and make an educated guess but with the new MJO scenarios and all other factors, when have we had this set up? Strong La Nina (2007) but much cooler PDO. Warm AMO (1995-2010) but cooling off. A great lack of MJO wave activity (I have no idea); this is where I really have struggles finding something like this combined with all the other volcanic action and low solar output, etc. Each one is dependent on one another but they all have independent affects.

So basing this on December, December did quite well (I am in SW Ohio) and had -7 for the region but it appears to be closer to -11 but I have to believe that any warmth we could see farther north and west for the MW and lower Great Lakes is brief. I like an island of warmth but that might be all there is. As I said up top, I originally had a warm January for most of this region but I have to back down because this is a different set of circumstances and I believe that this type of set up has not been seen in a very long time, likely prior to the 20th century.

I am sure many posts have delved into this topic and since I am new it might be a long reiteration that someone else has stated before me but at this time I believe this winter is a signal to what winters in the future will be like down the road.

Josh

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Such a dark gray day today, perfect for Christmas. Snowpack has settled back to 5". Very happy to have a white Christmas, but that NY storm looks UGLY. And it looks like I lost most of my usual snow buddies on this one LOL. Hunter has no snowpack so he doesnt mind a chance at possibly mixing things up, and Stebo and Canuck think thunderstorms are exciting because at least its action. Im the last one standing. I'd rather have cold and dry and at least white over warm, snow-melting air that is accompanied by thunderstorms.

That said, my main thing is Id like a winter where we can build a nice snowpack that sustains itself through the entire winter. That is rare, as is a winter without at least a few thaws or rainstorms. So not like this is out of the ordinary. Especially in La Nina. So if this storm IS mixing up things a bit and obviously there is still nearly 4 months of snowstorm potential to come, and in La Nina major winter storm odds are even greater than a normal winter in this region. So if great things lie down the road, then I can forgive this storm LOL

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Buy a snowmaking machine? tongue.gif

OT as well, but isn't blackjack one of those games where the house has the least advantage?

Sounds like a good idea, although I'm not sure how it would screw with my brain (see cromartie).

It's very close the odds in bj. Something like 50.5 to 49.5 in favor of the house. Roulette's 52.6% for the house. I have no idea about the other table games because I never play them.

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

Posted
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Sounds like a good idea, although I'm not sure how it would screw with my brain (see cromartie).

It's very close the odds in bj. Something like 50.5 to 49.5 in favor of the house. Roulette's 52.6% for the house. I have no idea about the other table games because I never play them.

Haha, yeah, perhaps a snowmachine isn't the BEST way to spend that extra $1,000.

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Madmaxweather

Madmaxweather

Posted
Posted

How is everyone doing?

I think the fact that the modeling appears to be very unsettled even in a short to mid term period makes any long term prognostication very suspect. I was all over a warmer January a few weeks ago but the fact the storms are cutting up far west or way under the blocking regime; that this blocking is a different breed. I do think some fluctuation is occurring but it more than likely is just a brief reprieve before we start a whole new blocking scheme for the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. I do believe that warmth is going to stay in for the southern Plains and Texas (not much change overall) and will probably be a little more northeast than what has been for December but the real battle is going to set up from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. When looking at several things I cannot remember the last time we had this cold of a PDO combined with a warm but cooling AMO and inordinate blocking. We all have analogs to look at and make an educated guess but with the new MJO scenarios and all other factors, when have we had this set up? Strong La Nina (2007) but much cooler PDO. Warm AMO (1995-2010) but cooling off. A great lack of MJO wave activity (I have no idea); this is where I really have struggles finding something like this combined with all the other volcanic action and low solar output, etc. Each one is dependent on one another but they all have independent affects.

So basing this on December, December did quite well (I am in SW Ohio) and had -7 for the region but it appears to be closer to -11 but I have to believe that any warmth we could see farther north and west for the MW and lower Great Lakes is brief. I like an island of warmth but that might be all there is. As I said up top, I originally had a warm January for most of this region but I have to back down because this is a different set of circumstances and I believe that this type of set up has not been seen in a very long time, likely prior to the 20th century.

I am sure many posts have delved into this topic and since I am new it might be a long reiteration that someone else has stated before me but at this time I believe this winter is a signal to what winters in the future will be like down the road.

Josh

Very well thought out post Josh. I can tell you know your stuff. Looks like a spring set up next week but BOOM it goes right back to cold behind that storm system. Does the cold stay constant or do we get another cut and mild again?

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OhioValleyWx

OhioValleyWx

Posted
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Very well thought out post Josh. I can tell you know your stuff. Looks like a spring set up next week but BOOM it goes right back to cold behind that storm system. Does the cold stay constant or do we get another cut and mild again?

I wish I knew that answer. The pattern is not typical from what I can gather. We could go to a warm and rainy period but at this time with storms being deflected west of the massive blocking or being severely suppressed it would appear that the overall blocking does not want to budge much. A subtle western migration seems possible and that puts the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the zone between warmer conditions and Arctic conditions to the northwest. It will all be the location of the blocking. If it is more east based then more Arctic intrusions and colder times but a more west based block and we are on the northwest side of a subtle ridge. Position will mean a lot.

Josh

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

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Where do we go beyond the possible monster storm next week? Does the cold reestablish itself for another 2-3 weeks or does the cold last 3-4 days before we get warm up again? Lots of questions on the table in the next 7 days..

I think it all comes down to what Josh is talking about with the blocking. Without it Nina takes over. The long term AO forecast appears to be taking a rise but that is pretty far out. My gut feeling is we should break the pattern at somepoint but pretty tough forecast for now.

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OhioValleyWx

OhioValleyWx

Posted
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I think it all comes down to what Josh is talking about with the blocking. Without it Nina takes over. The long term AO forecast appears to be taking a rise but that is pretty far out. My gut feeling is we should break the pattern at somepoint but pretty tough forecast for now.

Yes if there is no blocking, the Southeast Ridge would come up and dominate the pattern with milder weather. The refusal of the block to really move much besides a bit of migration east or west puts us in the zone where a sharp cut off between the two flows. This is not shaping up to be a typical Nina in the grand scheme so some very subtle differences could have significant affects on our weather.

Josh

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

Posted
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Very much unofficial, but from my reanalysis of WL/LAF's snowfall history, this December now at #5.

1) 25.5"...1929

2) 24.0"...1983

3) 21.6"...1973

4) 20.8"...1914

5) 20.7"...2010

6) 20.5"...1977

7) 20.3"...1909

8) 17.5"...2000

9) 17.3"...1934

10) 15.5"...2007

It'll at least tie for fourth, maybe take the spot by a tenth or two.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Very much unofficial, but from my reanalysis of WL/LAF's snowfall history, this December now at #5.

1) 25.5"...1929

2) 24.0"...1983

3) 21.6"...1973

4) 20.8"...1914

5) 20.7"...2010

6) 20.5"...1977

7) 20.3"...1909

8) 17.5"...2000

9) 17.3"...1934

10) 15.5"...2007

With it still snowing right now, should get into 4th place, possibly 3rd before this event is done.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Posted

It'll at least tie for fourth, maybe take the spot by a tenth or two.

With it still snowing right now, should get into 4th place, possibly 3rd before this event is done.

Yep to both of you guys. Looks a nice little band is/or just moved through not too long ago. I assume that we're up to at least 4" total now.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Posted

Pretty impressive snow maps for xmas morning. White Christmas all over the Midwest. Enjoy it, cause it looks like much of this will be gone by the weekend.

Such a shame that it's all going bye bye. Oh well, clean the slate for hopefully another active/snowy pattern for a lot of us soon thereafter.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

A little off topic, but it looks like the Vikings/Eagles game tomorrow night could be interesting. They're playing in Philly. The GEM and NAM move the heavier snow out by early evening, but still maintain light snow and strong winds during the game. The GFS is a little slower, and lingers heavier snow with strong winds during the entire game. Either way it will be fun to watch, but if the GFS is correct it could be even better than the Bears/Pats game a few weeks back.:guitar:

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