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GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread PART II


snowstormcanuck

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On the 0z GFS, D7 Arctic front gets to roughly a MQT-MSP line before stalling out due to the wave further west. 12z EURO plunged it much further south. That's your battle line right there. Whoever ends up north of that front's going to have a white New Year's.

And thunderstorms south probably :P

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Made it above freezing again today here, but it didn't seem to melt much this time. Yesterday we lost 3" or so, but didn't lose any today. High was 34, but we had a really cold start, so that may explain it. Snow depth still 7".

Just saw that the official snow depth at La Crosse is 23". Man, that is sick!!:snowman:

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I'd love it to snow, but even rain's better than this crap. This blocking has b**ch slapped my expected Nina precip surplus. I'm probably running close to a 3" precip deficit for Nov/Dec.

Yeah just remember my outlook for winter, right now its getting jobbed by the block. FEAR ME FOR I AM BLOCK MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

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Well, MW crew, it's gonna be a looonnnggg holiday season. 7 day forecast, THEN a torch:

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind around 5 mph.

Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32

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Last year was the least snowiest winter in Toronto with just 20.6" falling at Pearson Int'l, breaking the old record of 21.2" set in 1952-53. With only 2.6" having fallen through 12/23 (-2.3" last year's pace), and essentially no snow in sight for the next 16 days, I'm going to go ahead and say we do it back to back. I think the downtown station will just eke by without breaking their snow futility record again.

Sad thing is both this winter and last winter were progged as being snowier than average by certain local on-air mets.

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Last year was the least snowiest winter in Toronto with just 20.6" falling at Pearson Int'l, breaking the old record of 21.2" set in 1952-53. With only 2.6" having fallen through 12/23 (-2.3" last year's pace), and essentially no snow in sight for the next 16 days, I'm going to go ahead and say we do it back to back. I think the downtown station will just eke by without breaking their snow futility record again.

Sad thing is both this winter and last winter were progged as being snowier than average by certain local on-air mets.

You have a long way to go yet. You could get into a snowy pattern in mid January through the rest of winter and still get above normal. Toronto can get snow in April. That means 4 months of possible snow still to go. Chances are that winter won't end abruptly in early March like last year.

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Skilling was mentioning this tonight of a big warm up end of December but says early blast and blocking pattern in early Jan will bring very cold weather back to the eastern U.S.

There is always a blast of warmth at the end of December here. So far winter has been nothing to write home about. Looking at the snowbanks we are below normal for snow. It seems that this winter is shaping up like last winter where everyone else is getting dumped on and we are missing everything even the best lake effect. From Marquette east and the Gogebic range is getting the best lake effect. Hopefully, winter doesn't give up steam like it did last January. We didn't get much from January on. Well at least I won't have to worry about getting the flatter roof on my house shoveled off. Usually that has to be done now.

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You have a long way to go yet. You could get into a snowy pattern in mid January through the rest of winter and still get above normal. Toronto can get snow in April. That means 4 months of possible snow still to go. Chances are that winter won't end abruptly in early March like last year.

There was a season like that. I think it was 1993-94 where we had about 1" for the season on NYE and finished over 60" when all was said and done.

But I'm making a call completely based on emotion here. I'm more than likely to be wrong, but If I'm right I can say I called it first.

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30+ inches of snow will limit any warm up here.

Remember what happend with the warm up around the middle of January last winter? The 850 temps were well above freezing but the surface temps struggled to get into the 20s with the glacier you guys had. It was the same over here. However, if a monster storm does develop and track west of you, I suppose it might not matter other than to make the fog thicker.

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Just what we need! A bunch of rain going into the already wet snow pack. It will be an iceberg after the cold comes in after the Jan 1.

I am going to lose the mat on my driveway. Next summer hopefully I will get concrete put in so I won't have to worry about this. Luckily, I don't have major ice dams on the edge of my roof.

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Last year was the least snowiest winter in Toronto with just 20.6" falling at Pearson Int'l, breaking the old record of 21.2" set in 1952-53. With only 2.6" having fallen through 12/23 (-2.3" last year's pace), and essentially no snow in sight for the next 16 days, I'm going to go ahead and say we do it back to back. I think the downtown station will just eke by without breaking their snow futility record again.

Sad thing is both this winter and last winter were progged as being snowier than average by certain local on-air mets.

That really blows up there. With LES pretty uncommon for your area you HAVE to rely on storms to get to your seasonal average. I'm just thankful for Lake Erie. Without it, we'd be in the same boat.

One of things I've noticed over the past decade or so, is that a lot of winters are defined by a 3-5 week stretch of prolonged cold and snow. Still plenty of time for that to occur this winter.

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If the current storm can lay down a decent snow cover down into northern Missouri, that should help keep our temps a bit lower if there is a strong southerly flow around New Years. The 12z GFS is suggesting frozen precip over northern Iowa before the storm really wraps up and the warm air wins out.

The 12z Euro bows to the GFS and takes it further south and east. No more "Dakotas cutter", lol. Less warm air out in front. Looks like I would be snow/rain/snow...

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Move this thing 50-100 miles east and I would be in business. As it looks Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas look to get CRUSHED.

From MPX:

WE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A

MILDER PACIFIC FLOW DEVELOPS. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO

THURSDAY. HOWEVER...FROM THURSDAY INTO THE NEW YEAR...THE

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A HUGE UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH INTO

THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CLOSING OFF

OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY NEW YEARS DAYS. IN

FACT TODAYS ECMWF AND GFS ONLY DIFFER BY 1 MB AND LESS THAN 100

MILES ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MN FOR

SATURDAY JAN 1...WHICH IS OVER 200 HOURS OUT! AT ANY RATE...THERE

WILL LIKELY BE A WARMING TREND AS THE LOW MOVES IN WITH

SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME RAIN. ANOTHER INTERESTING FACT

WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM IS SEEN IN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE

FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW +4 DEG C IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM OVER

THE EASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY THEN LOWERING INTO THE -15 TO -20 DEG C

RANGE BY SATURDAY OVER MN.

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