hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Last weekend I was pumped about the next two storms. We ended up on the edge of this last one yet again and only got 1 inch and it looks like we may get very little or nothing with the xmas eve storm. The pattern this month has been very active and cold, but I've only gotten more than an inch once. I also wouldn't mind a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We could pull a last year...pattern goes from super active to completely dead... I think we ended up getting one small snow event in January and then it was game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 6 years ago...this puppy was underway. The western edge on this map is a little too far east, as we picked up 4" here, but nonetheless, a historic snowstorm for some. I dont remember that storm here in michigan. I do remember the dec 19 2008 one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just watched Bastardi's latest long ranger video and, while I think he is awful at forecasting specific storms, he tends to be better at predicting overall patterns. He explains how the GFS has consistently backed off from its call for a cold start to the new year and how this is indicative of the pattern change coming. The 6z GFS shows a blowtorch developing at a time when it was originally calling for a cold surge. Bastardi went on to explain how the coldest air in the world is being sent over to Asia, the far east and europe. It was a good video, for a change, even though I didn't like the message. It would seem that winter may be toast for us. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa and Montreal record an air temperature of -20 celcius this winter. We didn't in 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol Look out for severe thunderstorms up there on New years, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Look out for severe thunderstorms up there on New years, lol Watch that cut, give me TSRA, and then become the next block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Look out for severe thunderstorms up there on New years, lol Teleconnections had us too cold for snow and now the teleconnections are saying watch out for sever weather. PNA going strongly negative and the NAo is quickly moving towards positive. This low track looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 32 °F and the sun is out, actually feels warm! Little bit of a meltdown underway, which is nice for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Model activity, after just a glance shows a veritable parade of lows coming through the GL out to the end of the GFS time frame. There is one on our about NYE/NYD, and then another one right after that, and then a third around the 7th of Jan, or so. I have no idea what that means for the region, as far as precip goes. However, at this range the GFS puts the lows either over this area, or pulling a bit to the west. So, that could mean anything at this point. If anything can be taken from that, is that it looks like the pattern might get, and stay active for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Trying to figure out what pattern constitutes a snowy one for mby. Top 10 snowiest months since 1999 imby and their associated teleconnections. MM/YYYY.....SN.........ENSO.........NAO........AO.....PNA Jan 1999....46.6".....La Nina......0.77.........0.11.....0.16 Feb 2008....35.5".....La Nina......0.73.........0.94.....0.50 Dec 2008....29.6"....La Nina......-0.28........0.65.....-1.41 Dec 2000....24.8"....La Nina......-0.58.......-2.53.....1.23 Jan 2004....23.3"......Neutral......-0.29.......-1.69.....0.41 Jan 2009....22.2"......La Nina.....-0.01........0.80.....0.61 Mar 2008....20.2".....La Nina.......0.08........0.59.....-0.32 Dec 2007...19.8".....La Nina.......0.34.........0.82.....0.14 Jan 2003....17.1".....El Nino.......0.16.........-0.45.....1.29 Dec 2005....16.5"....El Nino.......-0.44........-2.10.....1.38 Nina better than Nino, no surprise. NAO has to be neutral, AO also typically neutral/slightly positive, although there were some notable exceptions when it was negative, PNA tends to have to be neutral or positive. Current pattern has tended to be -NAO/-AO/-PNA, which is a deadly bad combination. The times when -AO worked to my benefit, it was always accompanied by +PNA. I think +PNA promotes a bit of a SE ridge, which avoids the constant suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sunshine the past hour and 31F and I'm seeing a lot of melt going on here (on the streets/roof)... First time all month it seems. Still can't walk through the yard without snowshoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah the map is a little off. Even though we got some here, a somewhat agonizing "miss" for LAF. Where was the last minute NW trend when I needed it? I remember that developmental RUC hitting LAF pretty good. Of course it ended up being too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Certainly prefer the EURO's depiction of the D10 storm over the GFS. Looks more like an overrunning/frontal wave event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'll take anything over the nothing that has been occurring lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I dunno. Weenie moment. Bash me all you want, but the GFS may be on to something. Then again it may be out to lunch as usual. But in the long range it is setting up an El Nino pattern, with a low over the Aluetians, west coast ridge, and a high in eastern Canada, which would deliver some seriously cold air all the way to Texas, deliver frigid air to me, and ride storms thru the Ohio Vally/apps. Am I seeing this wrong? The bomb it is showing is the pattern changer for sure... Go ahead, bash away. I just want some input. Edit: High Pressure over the Davis Straights... Edit #2: Never mnd, we are all going to torch in January, what was I thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Btw, I was just looking at the Daily climo report for today, and i noticed we are at 9.1" of snow for the month here at DTW, if we somehow manage to make it to the end of the month above normal with how bad the blocking has been this month it really will be something. Also 18z GFS coming out with what will probably be a severe weather maker potentially with the amount of warm air that will pumped up in front of the system as it ejects out Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS still advertising a plains bomb in the form of a Colorado Low/Panhandle Hooker passing into the OV. Funny to see, but it is supported by a ton of ensemble members. ECM has no such system. What are your thoughts on the medium range pattern CSnavywx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good chance I finish the last 10 days of December without any measurable snow. Thought that might have been a first for me but after checking the records the same thing happened in Dec 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Drip drip today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had 1 inch of surprise fluffy snow this morning, 5-6" on the ground. Was out and about, with the camera of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Drip drip today... You were warmer than LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You were warmer than LAF. less snow pack up that way i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had some flurries here this morning, which marks 14 days this December with some snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had some flurries here this morning, which marks 14 days this December with some snow falling. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Drip drip today... As I was laying in bed last night, I heard the snow melting/dripping from the roof into the gutters...an awful sound. No melt today though. Overcast and sufficiently cold enough temps FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had some flurries here this morning, which marks 14 days this December with some snow falling. 16 days here at DTW, of course 8 of them are T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6 years ago...this puppy was underway. The western edge on this map is a little too far east, as we picked up 4" here, but nonetheless, a historic snowstorm for some. i remember that one well....7" followed by one hell of an icestorm. Got very cold afterwards well into xmas time so the ice and snow stayed put making it the most incredible xmas scenes we ever had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for posting that. What a storm that was, there were snow emergencies all over Central Ind. Definitely the biggest dumping in December I've experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Day 6/7 on the GFS - we start losing the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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