Hoosier Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hoosier- What about my 60F call for Milwaukee ?? If LAF doesn't get it in this setup, then Milwaukee has about a -3% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Since it doesn't appear that the fog will materialize as previously thought, that is one impediment removed for torching tomorrow. I still disagree with my fellow LAFer on 60 tomorrow. No fog=temp bust. Up to 49 here now with just a few peeks of sun occasionally. Looking like 60 is a lock tomorrow. The record for FWA on 12/31 is 61. Gonna be close, me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 62F in Omaha right now...49F in Lincoln now... front is right on the door out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 67F in falls city, NE; 58F in des moines. single digits close to here as sisseton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 No fog=temp bust. Up to 49 here now with just a few peeks of sun occasionally. Looking like 60 is a lock tomorrow. The record for FWA on 12/31 is 61. Gonna be close, me thinks. Just hit 49 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 67F in falls city, NE; 58F in des moines. single digits close to here as sisseton. That's crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 That's crazy... it sure is. DSM up to 61F now. we just hit 40F, MSP at 39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Right now, MOS is underdone by anywhere from 7-10 degrees across the local area. Tomorrow's output looks a little more realistic but likely still underdone. Given typical lackluster model performance in these waa scenarios, clouds, and uncertainty on amount of precip, it will require a small miracle to get this right, but my call for Friday is 58. This is largely based on model performance today and examination of the low level thermal fields for tomorrow. I have no idea when the high will occur but it's possible it could be an evening high. Any breaks in the clouds would likely allow temperatures to surpass 60. Hopefully Chicago WX saves me a spot on his wagon in case I need to jump on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Didn't even notice the temp is now 1.8C. Light fog is beginning to form. Current snowpack is about 15cm. It'll be interesting to see how low visibilities will go tonight. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ONTARIO REGION. 3:45 PM EST THURSDAY 30 DECEMBER 2010. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR.. WATERLOO - WELLINGTON. ..FOG BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS.. MILD AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT FOG PATCHES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MOST SOUTHERN ONTARIO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT 3:30 PM THERE WAS A REPORT OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG NORTH OF LONDON BETWEEN LUCAN AND EXETER AND NORTHWARD. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN FOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 MSP now at 40F. first 40 since nov. 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Temps overachieved here today. Was supposed to hit 41, and we hit 45. Down to 4" from nearly 14" last Saturday. The point forecast has us at 57 tomorrow, so we may make a run at 60. With a warmer night tonight, and nearly 60 tomorrow all that will be left is the large piles. This WAA has been extremely impressive given the huge snow pack it had to overcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Right now, MOS is underdone by anywhere from 7-10 degrees across the local area. Tomorrow's output looks a little more realistic but likely still underdone. Given typical lackluster model performance in these waa scenarios, clouds, and uncertainty on amount of precip, it will require a small miracle to get this right, but my call for Friday is 58. This is largely based on model performance today and examination of the low level thermal fields for tomorrow. I have no idea when the high will occur but it's possible it could be an evening high. Any breaks in the clouds would likely allow temperatures to surpass 60. Hopefully Chicago WX saves me a spot on his wagon in case I need to jump on. Did you factor in the LAF effect? That should be good for an additional 2 degrees. And I'm saving a seat for you, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 44F here... Winona up the river is showing 52F...got to wonder about that sensor...seems high the past few days. Crazy melt going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 44F here... Winona up the river is showing 52F...got to wonder about that sensor...seems high the past few days. Crazy melt going on here. That is a crazy spread in MN. 5 degrees in Roseau and 52 in Winona! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That is a crazy spread in MN. 5 degrees in Roseau and 52 in Winona! nothing but an ice rink here now...the half inch rain today and all the snow melt is all ice, very treacherous on the roads around here..temp here at 6:45 was 35 now it's 12 with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 temp dropping, really windy. flying cloud down to 35F with gusts to 35mph at 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That is a crazy spread in MN. 5 degrees in Roseau and 52 in Winona! That is what I like to call baroclinic instability, it is a beautiful thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think LAF hits 70F tomorrow... Lets make a run at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think LAF hits 70F tomorrow... Lets make a run at it! lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Did you factor in the LAF effect? That should be good for an additional 2 degrees. And I'm saving a seat for you, just in case. Thanks. The 00z guidance continues to be of no help. Busting way too low on temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Thanks. The 00z guidance continues to be of no help. Busting way too low on temps right now. I think this busting is one major reason models failed on the amplification of this first S/W as they grossly underestimated the warm sector baroclinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Thursday, December 30th: Hi: 48F Lo: 37F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 21MPH Rainfall: 0.04" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 After a day of upper 30s temps/dews, snow depth down to 2-3" of mush as of midnight (piles still hard and icy though). I hate thaws :-(. Looks like after a nice 3-week stretch of 5-6" snowcover for the Christmas season, we may be reduced to just piles and patches for the new year. Heres to a snowy Jan-Apr 2011. Took this fog pic earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 After a day of upper 30s temps/dews, snow depth down to 2-3" of mush as of midnight (piles still hard and icy though). I hate thaws :-(. Looks like after a nice 3-week stretch of 5-6" snowcover for the Christmas season, we may be reduced to just piles and patches for the new year. Heres to a snowy Jan-Apr 2011. Took this fog pic earlier. So you're the one who took my fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Just 2 inches or so left here. Temp still holding at 45. I see it's 50 down in the QC, which tells me they probably don't have any snow at all left. Our snow should be completely gone by sunrise, with the exception of the crusty piles. Looks like we have a good shot at 60 tomorrow. At least the lack of any snow on the ground will help keep nighttime temps from bottoming out like they have, and that will save on the heating bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 really dont see how we dont come close or even hit 60 tomorrow. most of our snow is gone here except for the always larger piles of it. models are doing a horrible job on temps right now. currently sitting at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like the GFS has a better handle on the temps, as the NAM is way too cool. Even the GFS is about 5 degrees too cool. It has us hitting 57 tomorrow afternoon, so lower 60s seem like a possibility. Given that the WAA is really overachieving I don't doubt it. Sucks to see the great snow pack completely melted but man is it going to feel great out there. Our 26+ inches for the month makes this a very successful start to the season. January looks to start very quiet, but I'm sure that will change by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 the IWX WRF looks to have alot better grasp over the NAM right now temp wise currently, although its still too cold for eastern IL/western IN 5z obs NAM IWX WRF bringing the 60 degree isotherm to about I-88 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The IWX seems a little too warm for this immediate area, but it's still better than the NAM and GFS. The negative feedback of the snow will be completely gone by early tomorrow morning, so it will probably end up being very close to what happens with the its forecast later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 really dont see how we dont come close or even hit 60 tomorrow. most of our snow is gone here except for the always larger piles of it. models are doing a horrible job on temps right now. currently sitting at 45. Agree. It can only get so warm with the temps aloft and clouds, but upper 50's at least seems like a good bet. 52 here right now, only 9 degrees warmer than the 00z MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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