GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread PART II

[cyclone77]

Sitting at 8 degrees right now. The deep snow still looks pretty fresh. We'll go above freezing later this afternoon, and probably stay above it till Friday night. With 50s here Friday all this snow will be history. Been nice while it lasted...

[Chicago WX]

According to my records, this was the 7th December to have 20" or more snow at LAF. The unique thing about this month is that we did not see one 6"+ storm, where the other six Decembers all had at least one (four of them had a 10"+ storm).

Small sample size and what not, but here's how much snowfall we got for the rest of the winter in the seasons LAF had at least 20" in December.

1909: Dec...20.3"

1910: Jan...3.7", Feb...10.0", Mar...T, Apr...4.5"

Total for JFMA...18.2"

1914: Dec...20.8"

1915: Jan...10.3", Feb...T, Mar...1.3", Apr...T

Total for JFMA...11.6"

1929: Dec...25.5"

1930: Jan...8.8", Feb...0.8", Mar...7.9"

Total for JFM...16.5"

1973: Dec...21.6"

1974: Jan...7.9", Feb...4.5", Mar...3.3", Apr...1.0"

Total for JFMA...16.7"

1977: Dec...20.5"

1978: Jan...27.8", Feb...9.0", Mar...6.8"

Total for JFM...43.6"

1983: Dec...24.0"

1984: Jan...8.8", Feb...6.6", Mar...9.9", Apr...T

Total for JFMA...25.3"

So if the past in any indication, we should make at least 30" for the season rather safely. Best case would be a repeat of 77-78 or 83-84, but one has to think repeats of those are an extreme long shot. Of course weather dances to its own beat, so anything is possible I suppose. Even a winter like 2000-01 for here is possible, where we pretty much blew our load in Dec and only got 8.2" the rest of winter.

[michsnowfreak]

Hard to believe how steady the snowpack has remained from 1 storm. Today is the 17th day that DTW has reported a 5"+ snow depth (granted 13 of the 17 days were 5", the other 4 were 6"). Per nowdata, this is already above the average for an ENTIRE winter season, and it is not even January yet!

Avg days of snowcover at DTW per winter season...

1"+: 49 days

3"+: 29 days

5"+: 15 days

10"+: 2 days

The snow is quite water-laden that its obvious we will have plenty of piles after the thaw, but Im still holding out for saving SOME snowcover. We look to max between 45-47F here. Cyclone77, though you are supposed to get into the 50s, you also have a foot of snow. I dont know if it will ALL be gone from that.

[Chicago WX]

OT, but I'd love to wipe the smug look off the morning TV met here who is cheering the arrival of 50º+ temps and all the snow melting.

[michsnowfreak]

OT, but I'd love to wipe the smug look off the morning TV met here who is cheering the arrival of 50º+ temps and all the snow melting.

They all do, cant stand that crap.

[msp]

cracked freezing here.

33F at FCM an hour ago. never did drop below 28F after the midnight warm-up.

[Chicago Storm]

Up to 37F here...original forecast was 31F.

[Trent]

OT, but I'd love to wipe the smug look off the morning TV met here who is cheering the arrival of 50º+ temps and all the snow melting.

I for one am glad to see it go. It's been 2-3 weeks of the same crusty dirty inch poking through the grass. It's depressing, mother nature's way of saying f u, you want snow here you go.

[Stebo]

OT, but I'd love to wipe the smug look off the morning TV met here who is cheering the arrival of 50º+ temps and all the snow melting.

That's not as bad as a couple of TV mets around here who would smile while telling you about bad weather (storms/rain/snow). Sometimes its ok not to smile...

As for today it been kind of unusual weather today, filtered sunshine with high clouds, hazy skies (vis around 3-5 miles all day) and temps around mid 20s all day but still looks like some melting going on today.

[Hoosier]

So in the "you could see this coming from a mile away" department, LAF is under a dense fog advisory until Friday.

[Stebo]

So in the "you could see this coming from a mile away" department, LAF is under a dense fog advisory until Friday.

In other late breaking news the sun came up in the East this morning?

[Hoosier]

Look at how limited the +AO has been both in magnitude and duration in the past few months.

[snowstormcanuck]

Look at how limited the +AO has been both in magnitude and duration in the past few months.

I'm putting all my hopes on that one member that rides a neutral AO through mid-month, and praying to god those two anomalously negative members are wrong.

[Hoosier]

I'm putting all my hopes on that one member that rides a neutral AO through mid-month, and praying to god those two anomalously negative members are wrong.

Time to move to LAF or Minneapolis.

[beavis1729]

Bill Deedler has been saying that since October. Winter will be back-loaded. He actually predicted a drier and likely below normal snowfall December. If average snowfall, above average snowcover, and below average temps is the worst month of the three that winter has to offer a snowlover, Ill take it in a HEARTBEAT!

In the end, Ive said it before and Ill say it again, this is not really the shaft lol (even though you did get a little less IYBY). Assuming DTW finishes at 9.3" snowfall for Dec, this is essentially very close to normal. The 1971-2000 avg snow is 11.1" for Dec, but that is thanks to some blockbuster Decembers particularly in the 1970s. The 130-year long-term December average is 8.9". Throw in the fact that we will be seeing twice the average number of days with 1"+ snowcover, and an entire winters worth of 5"+ snowcover days this month, and me thinks shaft = no.

Not to pick on you (in fact, you're a great poster, always providing a good balance of info!)...but these posts just go to show how horrible our climate is for snow lovers. I alluded to this in a separate thread...but the fact that DTW's long-term average Dec. snowfall is only 8.9" is sad. That's why we all get so frustrated on this board. Deep down, we know that "on paper" (and relative to climo), it looks good...but in our hearts, it's really not that much snow or cold.

Example: in Chicago (ORD), Dec. 2010 will go down with a departure of about -5.0F and about 16" of snow. 9" of snow is normal. So, on paper, it's a cold month vs. normal, with 78% more snowfall than average. SOunds great, right? However, no really cold temps (all of last winter and this winter so far, ORD has only managed a -1F reading as its coldest temp), and the snow depth in Dec. 2010 never got above 5" IMBY. Plus, the snow depth on Dec 31, 2010 will be 0".

Moral of the story: on paper (relative to climo), it looks like ORD had a great December...but "on the ground", it just wasn't anthing to write home about. Our climo sucks...no two ways around it.

Not trying to be a grinch; I'm just echoing the frustration of a snow lover.

Happy New Year to all...maybe we can get a Jan. 2009-like arctic outbreak in a few weeks. That's about all we can hope for!

[snowstormcanuck]

Time to move to LAF or Minneapolis.

What do you charge in rent?

Seriously though, if this ends up being a decadal or quasi-decadal semi-permanent presence of blocking over the North Atlantic, you guys could cash in on regular basis like never before.

[Hoosier]

Not to pick on you (in fact, you're a great poster, always providing a good balance of info!)...but these posts just go to show how horrible our climate is for snow lovers. I alluded to this in a separate thread...but the fact that DTW's long-term average Dec. snowfall is only 8.9" is sad. That's why we all get so frustrated on this board. Deep down, we know that "on paper" (and relative to climo), it looks good...but in our hearts, it's really not that much snow or cold.

Example: in Chicago (ORD), Dec. 2010 will go down with a departure of about -5.0F and about 16" of snow. 9" of snow is normal. So, on paper, it's a cold month vs. normal, with 78% more snowfall than average. SOunds great, right? However, no really cold temps (all of last winter and this winter so far, ORD has only managed a -1F reading as its coldest temp), and the snow depth in Dec. 2010 never got above 5" IMBY. Plus, the snow depth on Dec 31, 2010 will be 0".

Moral of the story: on paper (relative to climo), it looks like ORD had a great December...but "on the ground", it just wasn't anthing to write home about. Our climo sucks...no two ways around it.

Not trying to be a grinch; I'm just echoing the frustration of a snow lover.

Happy New Year to all...maybe we can get a Jan. 2009-like arctic outbreak in a few weeks. That's about all we can hope for!

Anybody outside of the mountains and LES belts would have a climo that sucks if you go by your standards.

[beavis1729]

OT, but I'd love to wipe the smug look off the morning TV met here who is cheering the arrival of 50º+ temps and all the snow melting.

You got that right...

[beavis1729]

Anybody outside of the mountains and LES belts would have a climo that sucks if you go by your standards.

Fair point. I never said that my standards are reasonable.

Mostly, though, it's the snow cover that michsnowfreak alludes to. Basically from MSP-LSE-Wausau on north, you can expect a continuous snow cover in DJF and much of March. Even with occasional thaws, the snow stays around for the most part, even if the seasonal totals aren't that great. In Chicago, you can get a decent amount of snow in stretches (kind of like the first 4 weeks of Dec...16" isn't too bad I guess)...but all of it gets wiped away in one mild spell. It took 4 weeks of decent wx to get us 5" of snow depth, and it disappears in two days.

Such is life...if we want to move to a snowier climate, it's our choice. No one is stopping us. I'm with you, ssc...not a good pattern coming up. Out of all of us (relative to climo), Toronto keeps getting the shaft, that's for sure.

Some good discussion about blocking and possible stratospheric warming on the main forum. The pattern is definitely interesting from a meteorological perspective, even if doesn't give all of the snow lovers what they want as we head into 2011.

[Hoosier]

Fair point. I never said that my standards are reasonable.

Mostly, though, it's the snow cover that michsnowfreak alludes to. Basically from MSP-LSE-Wausau on north, you can expect a continuous snow cover in DJF and much of March. Even with occasional thaws, the snow stays around for the most part, even if the seasonal totals aren't that great. In Chicago, you can get a decent amount of snow in stretches (kind of like the first 4 weeks of Dec...16" isn't too bad I guess)...but all of it gets wiped away in one mild spell. It took 4 weeks of decent wx to get us 5" of snow depth, and it disappears in two days.

Such is life...if we want to move to a snowier climate, it's our choice. No one is stopping us. I'm with you, ssc...not a good pattern coming up. Out of all of us (relative to climo), Toronto keeps getting the shaft, that's for sure.

Some good discussion about blocking and possible stratospheric warming on the main forum. The pattern is definitely interesting from a meteorological perspective, even if doesn't give all of the snow lovers what they want as we head into 2011.

Yeah, thaws are just a fact of life the farther south you go. Take LAF for example...the coldest average high is like 32. There are times I wish we would hang on to snow longer. This is also pretty much a wasteland as far as big synoptic dumps but it makes them more special when they do happen. When I really need a snow fix, a good LES event is a relatively short drive away. No, it's not the same as getting it in your backyard, but I don't think about that when I'm in the moment.

[msp]

flying cloud and msp both hit at least 36F this afternoon before the clouds moved in. my home thermometer topped that by a degree or two. all the mel****er is now beginning to refreeze, unfortunately.

[Stebo]

flying cloud and msp both hit at least 36F this afternoon before the clouds moved in. my home thermometer topped that by a degree or two. all the mel****er is now beginning to refreeze, unfortunately.

Oddly enough we so far have maxed at 28 over this way.

[Stevo6899]

How does a -ao affect us?

[snowstormcanuck]

How does a -ao affect us?

IT SUCKS!!!

Especially when the value gets below -3. There have been some decent snowy periods when the AO is modestly negative accompanied by a +PNA. This is based on data from Toronto. It's probably a little better for you in MI, but not much.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's very Vancouveresque in Toronto at the moment. Still, this month is nowhere near as mild as some Decembers have been. Toronto got up to a stunning 55F on New Years Eve in 1965, and this was only a year after the very mild December of 1964!

[snowstormcanuck]

It's very Vancouveresque in Toronto at the moment. Still, this month is nowhere near as mild as some Decembers have been. Toronto got up to a stunning 55F on New Years Eve in 1965, and this was only a year after the very mild December of 1964!

I think Vancouveresque is pushing it a bit. We didn't get above freezing today. Despite the lack of snow, it's been a cold month. We're at -4.3c for the month vs. -2.9c average.

[Chicago WX]

Drip, drip, drip. Lost a bit of snow today. By Friday she'll be nothing but a memory. But I made my peace with Ma Nature today for taking my snow away, so all is good.

[cyclone77]

Lost another inch today. Down to 10". After starting out in the single digits we made it to 35. Luckily a thick shroud of stratus and fog rolled in during the afternoon. We probably would have warmed even more. Freezing drizzle is in the forecast tonight, but we're still holding at 34, so I don't think we'll go below freezing.

I know one thing, the 50s on Friday will feel like July compared to the weather we've become used to.

BTW, the hoar frost on the trees was spectacular early this morning. That combined with very thick layers of fog just hanging overhead in very sharply defined edges made for an almost surreal drive into work. I wish I had my camera with because even if it meant being late to work I would have stopped and snapped some pics of that.

[roardog]

Fair point. I never said that my standards are reasonable.

Mostly, though, it's the snow cover that michsnowfreak alludes to. Basically from MSP-LSE-Wausau on north, you can expect a continuous snow cover in DJF and much of March. Even with occasional thaws, the snow stays around for the most part, even if the seasonal totals aren't that great. In Chicago, you can get a decent amount of snow in stretches (kind of like the first 4 weeks of Dec...16" isn't too bad I guess)...but all of it gets wiped away in one mild spell. It took 4 weeks of decent wx to get us 5" of snow depth, and it disappears in two days.

Such is life...if we want to move to a snowier climate, it's our choice. No one is stopping us. I'm with you, ssc...not a good pattern coming up. Out of all of us (relative to climo), Toronto keeps getting the shaft, that's for sure.

Some good discussion about blocking and possible stratospheric warming on the main forum. The pattern is definitely interesting from a meteorological perspective, even if doesn't give all of the snow lovers what they want as we head into 2011.

You can't really get much farther north and still be in this country. Besides, once you start getting into central Canada, you will keep snowcover the entire winter but you most likely won't see any big snows until Spring. Then, in the Summer, you would have pleasant temps but it would probably be boring as ever. That's what's great about where you live and also where I live. There is interesting weather for every season. Winter=snow/rain/fr rain/sleet/bitter cold, etc. Spring=snow/fr. rain/sleet/rain/t-storms, etc. Summer=t-storms. Fall=first frost/maybe snow/strong winds. etc. While the southern US turns hot ,humid and boring for 3 months in the Summer, we are far enough north to continue to get t-storms and changeable temps but yet not too far north to where good t-storms are limited. Overall, I can't complain too much because we live in an area that can get some of the most changeable and interesting weather. Also, you can always look forward to the changes that the following season will bring. This isn't always the case in other parts of the country.

[Hoosier]

You can't really get much farther north and still be in this country. Besides, once you start getting into central Canada, you will keep snowcover the entire winter but you most likely won't see any big snows until Spring. Then, in the Summer, you would have pleasant temps but it would probably be boring as ever. That's what's great about where you live and also where I live. There is interesting weather for every season. Winter=snow/rain/fr rain/sleet/bitter cold, etc. Spring=snow/fr. rain/sleet/rain/t-storms, etc. Summer=t-storms. Fall=first frost/maybe snow/strong winds. etc. While the southern US turns hot ,humid and boring for 3 months in the Summer, we are far enough north to continue to get t-storms and changeable temps but yet not too far north to where good t-storms are limited. Overall, I can't complain too much because we live in an area that can get some of the most changeable and interesting weather. Also, you can always look forward to the changes that the following season will bring. This isn't always the case in other parts of the country.

This is something I forgot to mention in my previous post. Even though this isn't a favorable area for big snow, I like the variety that each season brings. The Plains have wild swings in temps and of course that's where tornado alley is, but only the northern portions can really match your/beavis'...heck even my average snow per year. Snow is not the only thing I care about so I can think of a lot of worse places to live.