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Nor'easter obs...


NaoPos

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mount holly

WE ARE LOOKING INTO DROPPING SOME COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY WITH THE 630 PM UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW JERSEY CONTINUES TO SPIN BACK MOISTURE

INTO OUR AREA. THE RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING AT LEAST TWO

DISTINCT BANDS, ONE OF WHICH HAS DROPPED 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN

COUNTIES. THIS BAND IS WEAKENING SOME NOW, WITH MORE FOCUS FROM

MONMOUTH, OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE

THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

SURFACE LOW. WE THEREFORE PULLED MORE SNOW EASTWARD THIS EVENING

ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER FORCING WITHIN A COLDER

ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

ANOTHER BAND THAT HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN

NEW JERSEY TO PHILADELPHIA TO DELAWARE BAY HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED

ALONG MOST OF ITS LENGTH. THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE PULLING IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR TO ERODE THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS MAY RESULT IN

LITTLE SNOW OCCURRING FROM BERKS COUNTY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

IN ADDITION, LIGHTER INTENSITY IS RESULTING IN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW

MIX FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTHWESTWARD. AS A RESULT, SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING MUCH LESS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND

NORTHERN DELAWARE ESPECIALLY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

BAND NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TO PIVOT INLAND THROUGH THE

EVENING, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE GREATEST FORCING WILL BE CENTERED

IN NEW JERSEY.

THE KDIX VWP SHOWS 40-50 KNOTS AT 2000-4000 FEET. DESPITE THIS,

THE SURFACE WINDS WHILE FEATURING SOME GUSTINESS HAS BEEN MUCH

LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE LOWEST LEVELS APPEAR TO BE STABLE

ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL MIXING. THERE COULD BE SOME UPTICK IN

THE WINDS THIS EVENING AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TRIES

TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE

REMAINING WIND ADVISORY AND EVEN THE HIGH WIND WARNING.

A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ALSO

THE 6-HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANY HEADLINE CHANGES WILL BE MADE

WITH THE 6:30 PM UPDATE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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Just made it to the house. hope this goes through as cable is out still and cell sucks for data. hvy snow close to 5-6 inches and coming down. roads are a parking lot..34 south...gsp....terrible conditions. have not seen road crews etc. shocked we do not have ws watch or warning...the storm is crushing so mo co with hvy wet snow and low vis. i was parked for a few hours at the office and 3-4 inches were on the hummer.be safe all...trees are loaded as well pwr lines. will try an update later.

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OK - this is a IMWC (In my wife's car) forecast - she is telling me that there is heavy (in her opinion) wet snow falling from 195 South from Trenton to Shore area (Toms River) -- sticking/sloppy - I am currently in NE MD and Nada... Heading back to shore on Thursday night.

Just talked to my wife - at least 3" heavy snow in Toms River - trees that survived Sandy are now down "The worst thing that could have possibly happened" I will be heading back to shore tomorrow morning now...

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Safe to say I'm jealous of NYC & NJ right now, models showed that band over us yesterday...Anyway light-mod snow here in NE Philly, some cars have a bit of slush on them, but thats about it sad.png

Yeah this is why it's generally not good to be in the bullseye days 2-4 with winter events. However, for most big snows that I recall, the general trend was more NW with the track as the event approached. Not this one though. My home town in Monmouth will probably end up with half a foot of snow.

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