chubbs Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 .08 liquid - no measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Not even a trace and a mere 40 miles north of here they rec'd 12". What a crazy storm and very difficult forecast. The models (NAM specifically) actually predicted the insane lollipop numbers very well, was just off to the south with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Estimated 5.0-6.0" snowfall total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Man did SE PA got screwed, while NJ was getting pummeled I had 2 hours of heavy rain which finally switched over to snow around 10:30 way to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Man did SE PA got screwed, while NJ was getting pummeled I had 2 hours of heavy rain which finally switched over to snow around 10:30 way to late. I had about 10 snowflakes fall from the sky for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I had about 10 snowflakes fall from the sky for the whole event. Trust me I feel for you, 2 rough winters in a row someone's gonna crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Incredible storm in Monmouth County. Here's a pic from Colts Neck. Looks like major tree damage to the pears lining my neighbor's driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Very impressive! Mother Nature must be upset as the heaviest snow slammed many of the same areas that were hardest hit by Sandy. At office....highways are ok..roads clear. back roads are not so good...trees...branches power lines etc outages are somewhat localized....one side of the street has power the other does not...half a neighborhood out, the rest with power. must have lost phases.... Mike...one question and I am not one to give you guys crap. Why no WSW at 4pm. Conditions by then were well past criteria. If we had colder temps and a bit more wind Blizz Con would have been satisfied. Most businesses had no clue what was happening and when it got dark things went down hill and the rush hour was a mess. By 8 or so when the warnings went out (I believe it was around then) the snow became a bit more powder like and drifting began with 8+ on the ground. Not sure if you guys did not have the obs or data?? I made the call to empty non essential staff at 3pm....it took them all 2 hours+ for 20-30 minutes commutes...at 3pm. By 530 it was a parking lot along 34....138....195...GSP area. If I got the time wrong on the WSW my bad. This is the first solid web access I have had since I left around 6pm last night. JCPL is telling us the 11th now....time to abandon ship and transfer the flag to the cabin. I need some rest...18 hour days have taken a toll. Any reports from the beach areas of SoMoCo? I did not venture east yet. Hope the winds were less then expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Cool to see the snow keeping temps near freezing in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Mike...one question and I am not one to give you guys crap. Why no WSW at 4pm. Conditions by then were well past criteria. If we had colder temps and a bit more wind Blizz Con would have been satisfied. Most businesses had no clue what was happening and when it got dark things went down hill and the rush hour was a mess. By 8 or so when the warnings went out (I believe it was around then) the snow became a bit more powder like and drifting began with 8+ on the ground. Not sure if you guys did not have the obs or data?? I made the call to empty non essential staff at 3pm....it took them all 2 hours+ for 20-30 minutes commutes...at 3pm. By 530 it was a parking lot along 34....138....195...GSP area. If I got the time wrong on the WSW my bad. This is the first solid web access I have had since I left around 6pm last night. I think part of the reason for a delay in upgrading to a warning was a lack of snow reports at or above 5 inches. Also, very little obs in those areas (BLM amd MJX are still not up). We were discussing an upgrade to a warning around 6 PM, but held off and increased the snowfall amounts (also added snow all the way to the coast; as there was about 3-4 inches that accumulated right on the beaches). This was a significant impact for your area and even some neighboring counties, and looking back the upgrade to a warning should have been done earlier (especially when factoring in impact and getting some reports of trees and power lines coming down). Edit: Our IT guy just got into work. He lives in the Jackson, NJ area and he had about a foot of snow with trees down all over his yard. He estimated about 20 trees down just on his road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I think part of the reason for a delay in upgrading to a warning was a lack of snow reports at or above 5 inches. Also, very little obs in those areas (BLM amd MJX are still not up). We were discussing an upgrade to a warning around 6 PM, but held off and increased the snowfall amounts (also added snow all the way to the coast; as there was about 3-4 inches that accumulated right on the beaches). This was a significant impact for your area and even some neighboring counties, and looking back the upgrade to a warning should have been done earlier (especially when factoring in impact and getting some reports of trees and power lines coming down). Edit: Our IT guy just got into work. He lives in the Jackson, NJ area and he had about a foot of snow with trees down all over his yard. He estimated about 20 trees down just on his road. I figured....between the outages etc info was tough to come by....plus people are just running running running around here in clean up mode....get back to work....etc. Hey if you ever need obs from So Mo Co PM me....in a few minutes with a group txt msg I could gather a nice sample throughout monmouth and ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Hey if you ever need obs from So Mo Co PM me....in a few minutes with a group txt msg I could gather a nice sample throughout monmouth and ocean. Thanks, appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Why no WSW at 4pm. Conditions by then were well past criteria. If we had colder temps and a bit more wind Blizz Con would have been satisfied. Models during the day yesterday were trending away (lesser) QPF . Even the NAM. That along with borderline temperatures... I don't think anyone could of expected a foot or more. A crazy , rare occurance indeed. Trying to predict those mesoscale banding features are nearly impossible...especially when over the same area for hours. Vertically stacked Lows almost always provide a surprise. For people complaining about the lack of Eastern PA snow....this was almost a given 24 hours before the storm. Models were trending slightly more eastward and dryer on the western end. Just a dusting of snow up here. Maybe we need an Athena aftermath thread now. Yikes, new trees down PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 939 AM EST THU NOV 08 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0732 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAYVILLE 39.91N 74.15W 11/08/2012 OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SNOW 0909 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG JACKSON TWP 40.12N 74.35W 11/08/2012 OCEAN NJ NWS EMPLOYEE TREES DOWN 0911 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG COLTS NECK 40.29N 74.17W 11/08/2012 MONMOUTH NJ PUBLIC TREES DOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 For people complaining about the lack of Eastern PA snow....this was almost a given 24 hours before the storm. How about that NAM? The 'Monday morning quarterbacking' is always easy to do after the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 How about that NAM? The 'Monday morning quarterbacking' is always easy to do after the event. c'mon, i'm not here to brag. The NAM had a couple runs out to sea anyway. Honestly, this was one of the craziest to forecast. The Low Down : Friday : Most models are showing an inland track. (NAM wasn't in range yet) Saturday : Most models still show an inland (or very close to the coast track) NAM was the farthest east and almost completely out to sea. Sunday : I forget...memory blank...had a rough night. Monday : Almost all models trended towards the NAM solution...Or the furthest east solution. Yeah, the 18z NAM and GFS's runs did sent it out to sea. Tuesday : Some hints from the models of a weaker low solution (GFS / Euro ) but still a big hit. NAM was still going gangbusters with QPF. All and all a blend between the NAM and GFS / Euro QPF should of showed us the 'sign' that some spots were about to get a foot or more. What's more amazing about this ? So many areas received 7 to 8 inches in general...freehold with 13....and eastern PA = almost nothing. Unbelievable for a winter storm in general...geographically speaking for an area so close (eastern PA)to be completely shafted. But the NAM did show this possibility in later runs. Still impossible to imagine any areas would of received 8 or more inches with this...A learning lesson for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 ...A learning lesson for all of us. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Models during the day yesterday were trending away (lesser) QPF . Even the NAM. That along with borderline temperatures... I don't think anyone could of expected a foot or more. A crazy , rare occurance indeed. Trying to predict those mesoscale banding features are nearly impossible...especially when over the same area for hours. Vertically stacked Lows almost always provide a surprise. For people complaining about the lack of Eastern PA snow....this was almost a given 24 hours before the storm. Models were trending slightly more eastward and dryer on the western end. Just a dusting of snow up here. Maybe we need an Athena aftermath thread now. Yikes, new trees down My question was based on real time conditions which went down hill after 2pm. As mike stated the lack of obs was one of the issues they were contending with post sandy. I get the forecasting ahead of time issues......we all saw the same data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 If I was in Mike's shoes I would've been hard-pressed to issue a warning at 4PM. Most areas it wasn't even sticking by then. I was about to give up hope on my forecast at that time and then of course it started sticking shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I posted in the NY section that at least this is a nice clue for the winter -- NAM sucks as a short term model too. GFS was superior in the < 12 hr time frame with virtually no snows west of the DE River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I mean look how bad the NAM is, 6z yesterday nudged East but it was still far enough west that it put Philly in the deformation zone. That is like 9 hours away from the storm beginning! There were 2 signs I saw in the AM that discouraged me for Philly. 1) The RGEM had suddenly shifted way East at 6z. 2) The RUC/RAP whatever around 12z suddenly showed the heaviest precip not making it far west. The EURO was pretty terrible as well. I think models will generally struggle in early/late season storms since there are more aspects to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 All and all a blend between the NAM and GFS / Euro QPF should of showed us the 'sign' that some spots were about to get a foot or more. I tend to disagree at least some because just because the QPF is there (which through 18z yesterday, many of the model QPF's were to high in NJ), this event was not clear cut that all the QPF that ended up being snow would result in actual high accumulations. Still impossible to imagine any areas would of received 8 or more inches with this...A learning lesson for all of us. Yes, a learning lesson indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 My question was based on real time conditions which went down hill after 2pm. Watching radar and trying to predict where those mesobands were heading last night from 1 hour to the next was almost like mission impossible.. (spreading out in crazy directions) Even SPC's meso yesterday afternoon was pretty much off the mark. Showing the heaviest in interior northern NJ....when in fact the heaviest was in interior SNJ. They were probably calculating in your temp around 34 during the lulls as well... In which you'd need heavy precip the entire time / night to retain 32 or below temps. Then you'd need a near perfect mesobanding / heavy snow episode. (which u did get) Just amazing what happened last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 If I was in Mike's shoes I would've been hard-pressed to issue a warning at 4PM. Most areas it wasn't even sticking by then. I was about to give up hope on my forecast at that time and then of course it started sticking shortly after. You probably did not want to be in my shoes last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 You probably did not want to be in my shoes last evening. Not really, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Here's a link to the PNS: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I had about 10 snowflakes fall from the sky for the whole event. When I was driving south of Trexlertown towards Alburtis I could see Hawk Mountain in the distance. The heavy clouds stopped somewhere out that way. I just got a coating of snow here, not much fell from the sky here either. If the storm would have been further west, I think you and I would have seen almost 100% accumulation of snow with hardly any melting or changeover. Oh well, had 16" last October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 This was crazy to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Impressive gradient too in Monmouth. Friend in Middletown posted this pic near his house - nada. Those 1-2 degrees made a big difference. Temps were around 32 inland but 34 near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That bare grass is crazy, just a few miles away and north to boot. Raritan bay screw job in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I did see some light snow between 8 PM and 11 PM last evening in Spring Mount, PA...but no accumulation due to temps of 34/35 and light precip rates. Nevertheless, the township decided to put down salt on my neighborhood streets at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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