N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Glad u didn't Chris M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Strong inversions lately... here's a photo from yesterday when it was in the mid 30s up here on the mountain, but MVL down there in the valley bottom (along with Stowe Village) at 730ft was in the low 20s. It was 15 degrees warmer where I was standing verses down under the inversion where the smoke was trapped. Light south winds were blowing the smoke north up the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 is there any icing near shaded ponds in the area (if you've look'd) that much time below freezing would make it doable if a body of water was heavily shaded (i would think) Small ponds are skimmed over around here as are the marshy setbacks along the Connecticut RIver. It's coming. More heavy frost this morning...not much else of interest during these quiet days. And, as quiet as it's been, it's been a very nice stretch for tiding up 'before winter chores'. Happy Thanksgiving, all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving to all, And to all a big snowstorm next week................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Can't wait to get back up north for some snow showers/flurries on Sunday followed by hopefully some snow on Tuesday night. Winter ftw :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving to all, And to all a big snowstorm next week................ You too buddy! and yes, seriously I think we are all ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 You too buddy! and yes, seriously I think we are all ready! Yes, It is time for some winter fun as we head into Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Good temperature spread this morning between here on the east side of the Spine and the western slope.... BTV is currently 47F while I've got 24F at my house and MVL is 23F. Check out some of these obs along the west slope that are in the mid/upper 40s, while from here to points east into NH/ME are all in the 20s. Also, huge inversion with 23-24F at elevations below 1,000ft, but by 1,500ft the temperatures are in the 40s. You can see this down in Moretown south of Waterbury on RT 100 (black circle) where there are low 20s right next to mid/upper 40s. The low 20s are down at 700-800ft...while the 40s are up above 1,300ft. Only 500ft of elevation is like a 25F difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 This is the first time I've seen the new BTV WRF with the google maps topography... this is awesome! We need more models like this... kudos to BTV for setting this up. This thing is going nuts with the upslope this weekend in this neck of the woods. And then you can zoom in to really get a good look at it... nice pocket of 0.5-0.75" over the ski resort on the east side of Mansfield. Tapering to 0.25" along the RT 100 corridor in the center of town. Most of the Mountain Road here in Stowe is in the 0.25-0.5" range. You can also see J.Spin's magical stretch of I-89/RT2 there in the Winooski Valley under the Spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This extended stretch of clear weather has been pleasant, but indeed our point forecast is finally starting to look like something I’d expect to see for the Northern Greens as we approach December: Temperatures look somewhat marginal in the valleys, but the forecast has the mountains well below freezing right through the end of the month. Although the wet bulb temperatures may not be quite as fantastic for snowmaking going forward, hopefully Mother Nature will be able to make up for it with shots of real snow. One can see from the discussion that BTV knows people are ready: IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO RUN IN THE LITERAL...ON AND OFF SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE BELTS AND NRN MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSES COULD LAY DOWN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EACH DAY WHICH WOULD BE WELCOME FOR MANY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This is the first time I've seen the new BTV WRF with the google maps topography... this is awesome! We need more models like this... kudos to BTV for setting this up.This thing is going nuts with the upslope this weekend in this neck of the woods. And then you can zoom in to really get a good look at it... nice pocket of 0.5-0.75" over the ski resort on the east side of Mansfield. Tapering to 0.25" along the RT 100 corridor in the center of town. Most of the Mountain Road here in Stowe is in the 0.25-0.5" range. You can also see J.Spin's magical stretch of I-89/RT2 there in the Winooski Valley under the Spine. Excellent PF, thanks for the introduction to the new BTV maps; it should be fun watching how things come together, but it sure looks like there’s some additional whitening in Stowe’s future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 PF can you post a url for those new BTV graphics? I tried to find but couldn't. Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Finally a BTV WRF I can view on my ipad. Looks like it is delivering squalls around here tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 BTV WRF is certainly over-doing things, but shows some potential tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z hi res NAM accumulated precip by 1am Monday morning courtesy of SV. It certainly has the tendency to over do upslope QPF, but usually has a decent idea of where there will and will not be appreciable precip. Note that the cutoffs in QPF aren't as sharp across the CT river valley..shows almost 0.25" at LSC, where as last upslope event it was very defined in saying little to no precip at the valley floors. We should have decent cross barrier flow and appreciable lower level RH, so the usual suspects should do well, and I would not be shocked if the lower elevations squeeze out D-2" or something like that. Granted, in these setups the BTV WRF kicks azz compared to other hi-res output because the model microphysics are geared to handle the terrain of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 CTsnowstorm... I agree with you, but likewise the BTV WRF seems to often over-do things in quite a few events. But even like half of the QPF of these meso-models would still be appreciable snowfall. I think a lot of northern VT outside the immediate Champlain Valley has a shot at a D-2"... at least a whitening of the ground is possible, even in the interior mountain valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z hi res NAM accumulated precip by 1am Monday morning courtesy of SV. It certainly has the tendency to over do upslope QPF, but usually has a decent idea of where there will and will not be appreciable precip. Note that the cutoffs in QPF aren't as sharp across the CT river valley..shows almost 0.25" at LSC, where as last upslope event it was very defined in saying little to no precip at the valley floors. We should have decent cross barrier flow and appreciable lower level RH, so the usual suspects should do well, and I would not be shocked if the lower elevations squeeze out D-2" or something like that. Granted, in these setups the BTV WRF kicks azz compared to other hi-res output because the model microphysics are geared to handle the terrain of the region. The two inches of QPF for the Tug Hill would be pretty awesome. For some reason though, it looks there's less precip accumulation on the PSU ewall site with the 18z hires nam. Are those from the same model? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/ptot60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 CTsnowstorm... I agree with you, but likewise the BTV WRF seems to often over-do things in quite a few events. But even like half of the QPF of these meso-models would still be appreciable snowfall. I think a lot of northern VT outside the immediate Champlain Valley has a shot at a D-2"... at least a whitening of the ground is possible, even in the interior mountain valleys. Yeah, I mean I can see mansfield and jay seeing maybe 4-8" while lower elevations see D-2", probably closer to the dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 2" being forecast for the Whites tomorrow, should be an enjoyable hike if that occurs. Could do without freezing rain at the onset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The two inches of QPF for the Tug Hill would be pretty awesome. For some reason though, it looks there's less precip accumulation on the PSU ewall site with the 18z hires nam. Are those from the same model? http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/ptot60.gif I'm honestly not sure. But its all initialized with the same hi-res (4km) NAM data. Maybe the respective models use different microphysics schemes? Also, the SV graphics are smoothed...maybe that helps with resolving microscale issues somewhat? But, I'd definitely obviously side with lower QPF values with this setup, as you probably know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Highs in the low-mid 20s in the valley and teens in the hills by the end of the week? Looks pretty damn cold, even if it looks like no snow. Too bad the snowfall for Tueaday night is looking less likely, as it looks like it would stay around for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. BOTH THE 12Z/23 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE DRAMATICALLY CHANGED THEIR TUNE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND EAST DAYS 3 AND 4, NO LONGER SENDING A DEEP LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS SQUASH THE DEVELOPMENT, WITH A MUCH SHARPER LIMITING STREAMLINE TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO THE RACES AND FLAT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A DRY OVERALL FORECAST. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE WITH THE ENERGY IMPINGING ON THE WEST COAST AS WELL, WITH A CONTINUED PREFERENCE TOWARD THE STEADY EC THERE. Not very encouraging if your looking for snow out of this next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Winter's back. 35F with flurries (no accum) at 750ft in town...and its 32F and light snow (0.2") at 1,500ft. Even some spotty pavement accumulations up here but mostly mulch/grass/vehicles are turning white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Winter's back. 35F with flurries (no accum) at 750ft in town...and its 32F and light snow (0.2") at 1,500ft. Even some spotty pavement accumulations up here but mostly mulch/grass/vehicles are turning white. Nice little upslope event to freshen things up. Not as bullish as the BTV WRF, but our in house WRF is painting a good third to half inch in the Whites, with up to 0.80" in the highest elevations. I would imagine the Greens would be similar, were they in our domain on GFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I almost forgot what precip is. A hefty 0.03" with the front last night. Funny that it took a cold front to halt our streak of ten mornings where it dropped down into either the teens or twenties with heavy frost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 I like this line from ALB...the woodland critters are getting bombed right now with 1"/hr snows. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES... AT 802 AM EST...TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY RADAR. ONE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS IMPACTING THE POLAND AND NEWPORT AREAS OF SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND WAS IMPACTING RELATIVELY UNPOPULATED FOREST PRESERVE AREA OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE SOUTH OF OLD FORGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nice little upslope event to freshen things up. Not as bullish as the BTV WRF, but our in house WRF is painting a good third to half inch in the Whites, with up to 0.80" in the highest elevations. I would imagine the Greens would be similar, were they in our domain on GFE. Nice, Pickles can breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 -SHRN here, 45.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXheights Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 http://www.camviewin...0835MST_120.mp4 Good to see a usually familiar November site back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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