mreaves Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Made it down to 19F...first teens of the year with a heavy heavy freeze. Fooking cold. Another SNE'r suffering in the North Woods. You'll soon find that 19° isn't that cold, -19° is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Pattern is looking more gradient early on which should provide some wintery chances for a lot of folks up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Pattern is looking more gradient early on which should provide some wintery chances for a lot of folks up this way I'm still a bit nervous because it has been so dry. All this sun in November is messing with me. I will say though that the snow that we have gotten has been overperforming, though not by much. Forecast calls for flurries and we get half an inch or so for example. I do like the temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Obvioulsy it's been pretty quiet lately but there are signs: our gound is frozen at home and in the shady spots, the surface frost has hung on all day and is actually accumulating a little bit. Taken at 1:15 yesterday afternoon and showing several nights worth of frost: Speaking of frost, we've had some spectacular morning displays recently. This morning at the house, far above the CT River valley fog: And then I found some terrific hoarfrost down along the foggy shores of Lake Fairlee: And along the old lake bottom terraces just above the Connecticut River: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm still a bit nervous because it has been so dry. All this sun in November is messing with me. I will say though that the snow that we have gotten has been overperforming, though not by much. Forecast calls for flurries and we get half an inch or so for example. I do like the temps though. Well, As you know, Being dry right now is not a bad thing, The last thing we need is the woods and bogs being over saturated as freezing the ground process before the snow flies as far as snowmobiling goes always becomes problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Low of 12 yest, coolest yet for Nov, unless this morning got below that - it was close, but I didn't check the max-min yet. BML touched singles, low of 9. Month so far is running about -2.5. Thurs-Fri forecast shows temps about +5 here (my 14-yr avg for those days is 41/23) but the cooldown after that should make Nov 2012 coolest since 2007, when Nov averaged 30.6, Avg Nov here is 34.4. Still only 0.8" precip. Unless something next week grows up bigtime, looks like a lock for my driest Nov here; only has to beat 2.37". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 what's this I hear of a torch around xmas-NYE timeframe? Do we need to get the nooses out again this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 what's this I hear of a torch around xmas-NYE timeframe? Do we need to get the nooses out again this winter? This is nothing like last winter, We always end up with a thaw, You can't sustain meat locker temps DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Obvioulsy it's been pretty quiet lately but there are signs: our gound is frozen at home and in the shady spots, the surface frost has hung on all day and is actually accumulating a little bit. Taken at 1:15 yesterday afternoon and showing several nights worth of frost: Awesome photos! Speaking of frost... this was taken at 760ft or so in Stowe Village at the Gables Inn (Chris M can verify if he wants, he's staying like the next property over, haha). 3:15pm and the side yard is still frozen white with frost. I've noticed the north facing aspects that are shaded have not lost their frost for multiple days due to the low sun angle. So we'll start the night again with frost already on the ground in spots, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Awesome photos! Speaking of frost... this was taken at 760ft or so in Stowe Village at the Gables Inn (Chris M can verify if he wants, he's staying like the next property over, haha). 3:15pm and the side yard is still frozen white with frost. I've noticed the north facing aspects that are shaded have not lost their frost for multiple days due to the low sun angle. So we'll start the night again with frost already on the ground in spots, lol. It has been that way here, North facing areas stay frost thru out the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nice inversion .. 13F at IZG, 32F on MWN. Yeah same up here... I had 16F at home (730ft) when I left at 4:45am and arrived at the mountain to find 23F (1,500ft) and 26F (3,600ft). I just can't believe how cold it keeps getting at night... another night of mid teens last night with 16F for a low, like 10F below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm getting a bit excited for a light to moderate upslope event (maybe in the 3-6 inch range for the usual suspects?) this weekend... GFS has been banging that drum for a few runs now. 00z last night... 06z run... 12z run today... These are just snap shots of each run, but the overall synoptics are good with a low in the maritimes and a strong push of CAA (good pressure gradient in there, too) with H85 temps dropping down to -10C or lower. As "adk" knows, when that -10C H85 line makes its approach and then passes, for whatever reason the upslope likes to be cranked out with very efficient accumulating flakes. It might be something that starts with squally, almost graupel-like stuff, and then transitions to a more classic fluff as precipitation rates wane a bit and CAA really moves in. I could definite envision the mountains seeing accumulation, with the adjacent mountain valleys at least whitening the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Euro op has a little front end "thump" for the 28-29th event for us and the ens look good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah, Euro was not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I like where I sit for the 11/28-29 event. At the very least it should be better then my hometown. (Although I said that for the 11/7 event and we all know how that turned out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I like where I sit for the 11/28-29 event. At the very least it should be better then my hometown. (Although I said that for the 11/7 event and we all know how that turned out.) Haha the worst thing about going off to college is worrying that your hometown may see more snow than you, even if your new location averages more. I have a feeling you'll be comparing Plymouth to Worcester quite a bit this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Beautiful sunset over the dacks from btv tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Beautiful sunset over the dacks from btv tonight One of the great things about BTV. There are great views in both directions. Mansfield looks massive from many parts of the area. Try to get a late afternoon look at it for the alpenglow as the sun sets It can be quite spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 An interesting tidbit from the Mount Washington Observatory ... "Up here on the summit, what many would consider normal weather is unusual for us. We've been in the clear with calm winds for much of the last 5 days. Extended clearing on the summit in November hasn't happened in the recent memory of many of the observers, so I decided to look into our weather archives to see how often clear spells like this occur on the summit. As it turns out, the last span of five clear days in November happened in 2006, and before that in 1976. We have, in fact, never had a span longer than 5.75 completely clear days in November on the summit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Another monster inversion morning.... 4,000ft...32F (summit) 1,600ft...30F 750ft...19F (home) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Pattern going forward is going to get interesting up here over the next few weeks.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So it would seem, and none too soon. Today makes 7 in a row with low in teens and high near 40. November isn't supposed to be this way, and the data from MWN just reinforces the oddity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Pattern going forward is going to get interesting up here over the next few weeks.......... My guess is we have some sort of threat the week I get back up there (week of 11/26). Cold air may be an issue but we should get the storm track up here if we can keep the NAO from going too negative. The NAO is progged to go 2 SD below normal near 12/1. Could be something maybe in the 11/28-11/30 range as it transitions to very negative and maybe something else between 12/5-12/10 as it goes back towards neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So it would seem, and none too soon. Today makes 7 in a row with low in teens and high near 40. November isn't supposed to be this way, and the data from MWN just reinforces the oddity. is there any icing near shaded ponds in the area (if you've look'd) that much time below freezing would make it doable if a body of water was heavily shaded (i would think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So it would seem, and none too soon. Today makes 7 in a row with low in teens and high near 40. November isn't supposed to be this way, and the data from MWN just reinforces the oddity. is there any icing near shaded ponds in the area (if you've look'd) that much time below freezing would make it doable if a body of water was heavily shaded (i would think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 is there any icing near shaded ponds in the area (if you've look'd) that much time below freezing would make it doable if a body of water was heavily shaded (i would think) We have some smaller ponds here that have skimmed over as we have had basically the same temp regime as Tam has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z EURO is nice for northern VT/NH/ME on the 28th. probably 4-8" SN/IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z EURO is nice for northern VT/NH/ME on the 28th. probably 4-8" SN/IP Yeah it is, I think we could catch storms on both ends of the building Nao and when it relaxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 is there any icing near shaded ponds in the area (if you've look'd) that much time below freezing would make it doable if a body of water was heavily shaded (i would think) Small (acre or less) ponds have skimmed and remained covered even in full sun. Lows have been 12, 11, about 14 these past 3 days, and 40F with low sun angle doesn't melt much ice. Probably 1" thick or so on the smaller ponds, just a tiny bit of edge skim on larger ones like the Belgrade Lakes. Upper 40s Thurs-Fri will probably be enough to clear it off even the little ponds, except those with south-side evergreens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Pickles, I was able to walk across a bit of a shallow pond today and I weigh ~185 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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