NNE Winter Thread

[TrueBlue]

lol, I know it gets my heart rate up, I will be up there around New Years, braaap braaap

My buddy has a house up there and just called to let me know they had 2 feet of wet heavy snow and no power and he was sending his old man up with a generator.

[MarkO]

What are you guys thinking is going to happen in the mountains from Friday's storm?

[J.Spin]

With this storm (or these storms) being a bit of a multi-day mixed bag, and some of the resorts still in early season mode, nobody is providing the usual “storm total” numbers, so I’ve tried to clarify the Vermont ski area snowfall numbers a bit with some duration info. Some of the southern resorts aren’t saying much about accumulations, which is usually a bad sign, so I went with T if they mentioned a dusting, or 0” of they don’t say anything at all. Updated list:

Jay Peak: 7” (48 hr.)

Burke: 8” (72 hr.)

Smuggler’s Notch: 6” (48 hr.)*

Stowe: 11” (72 hr.)

Bolton Valley: 7” (72 hr.)

Mad River Glen: 10” (72 hr.)

Sugarbush: 12” (72 hr.)

Pico: 4” (48 hr.)

Killington: 4” (48 hr.)

Okemo: T (?? hr.)

Bromley: 0” (?? hr.)

Magic Mountain: 4” (36 hr.)

Stratton: 2” (?? hr.)

Mount Snow: T (24 hr.)

*Smugg’s isn’t giving any numbers other than the overnight accumulation, so I grabbed numbers from Hugh’s Blog that they have linked from the snow report.

[powderfreak]

I actually grabbed all those numbers from the individual ski area websites, but some places provide 48-hour totals, some places provide 72 hours totals, and it’s possible that they weren’t all updated yet. On that note, while I was generally going with 48-hour totals, Stowe’s snow report only lists 24-hour and 72-hour totals, so I had to go with the latter (11”). I think of Stowe as the premiere snow recording mountain around here, so see if you can talk to the powers that be to bridge that gap and get the 48-hour totals in there (unless there’s some logistical/practical/cosmetic reason that 48-hour totals aren’t listed). It seems that with 24 and 72-hour totals documented, 48-hour totals wouldn’t be too difficult to have in there. What I’m going to do is go back and update the accumulations list and indicate 48/72-hr etc to help clarify – I do see that Sugarbush does list their 72-hour total and it indicates 12” new. I also like that Sugarbush seems to be continuing their base-mid-summit reporting system.

On the west side/east side snow – my observations have been similar. Simply by using the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam at ~2,100’, I’ve been able to tell that things are a bit better on the east side. Hence my trips to Stowe vs. Bolton thus far to earn turns. It sure has been nice not to have to drive all the way up the Bolton Valley Access Road just to assess snow depth. One can’t quite tell what’s going on down at 1,500’ at the Timberline Base from the web cam, but you can make a rough extrapolation. I can see that Bolton’s got plenty of depth for a respectable natural base at that 2,100’ now though, so I think the turns on some of the natural snow terrain should start to get really good there if this next storm pans out:

Regarding that first part... there's really no reason for not having 48 hour totals. I'm off today and tomorrow, but like yesterday's report, I usually add the 48 hour totals into the text version if applicable. I just picked 24 hours, 72, and 7 days to display to avoid it from getting too cluttered. Could probably add 48 easily enough. I've more been tooling with the idea of adding a 12 hour column to reflect overnight snowfall on the early morning report (like Alta and a lot of western spots do). Only issue with 12 hours is it would be more like a 14 hour snowfall from 4pm to 6am. Sometimes I find 24 hour snowfall can be a bit confusing to people if it dumped all day after the previous day's 6am readings, but then shut off by 4pm. You're 24 hour can be like 6-8" but 0" overnight, and folks get disappointed when they show up to find all the snow got skied out the day before. But if you saw 24 hours: 6-8" 12 hours: 0" you could figure that out more easily.

I really like Sugarbush's displaying base-mid-summit again... I think that's a great touch for their skiers and riders. Mansfield doesn't really have a "mid-mountain" as the primary lifts are generally base to summit in one 2,000+ vertical foot swoop, so I still like the X-X range from base-summit here.

Regarding the second part... yeah these east flow events will favor the east side a bit, but Bolton and Smuggs (while less snow than Stowe/Sugarbush on east side) will more than make up for it with the upslope event coming up.

I think Bolton could be measuring in feet, like ADK said 12-24" for the northern Spine.

My primary call is at least 6-12" from Sat AM to Sun PM...with a 30% chance of >12". I just think it looks fairly classic with vertically stacked lows to our NE and deep layer NW flow. Plenty of moisture in the low levels...BTV RH graphics on Coolwx are showing like 90% or more RH in the boundary layer and the rain on Friday will only add more fuel to the fire with moist ground and fog. Snow growth looks great. Duration is acceptable at 12-24 hours. I think the upslope region is snowing pretty hard Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning.

BTV was on-board yesterday and then this morning's discussion sort just didn't mention it at all. I'm surprised because I think this could have some decent travel impacts in west slope communities/I-89 between BTV-MPV, and RT 100 corridor. I would imagine they'll need at least an advisory for the usual spots as temps crash into the teens and 20s with NW winds and falling snow.

[dryslot]

My buddy has a house up there and just called to let me know they had 2 feet of wet heavy snow and no power and he was sending his old man up with a generator.

Yup, Spoke with Gary at the Northland and Eric at Spruce Meadow Cabins on FB, They did well so far this week and its not over

[dryslot]

Pretty sharp cuttoff south to some of those totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

139 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...CWOP

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...FACEBOOK FANS...AND MEDIA FOR THESE

REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/CARIBOU

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

SOLDIER POND 5 NW 20.0 1215 PM 12/19

DYER BROOK 18.0 1105 AM 12/19

CASTLE HILL 1 SSE 16.0 1020 AM 12/19

ALLAGASH 15.0 935 AM 12/19

PRESQUE ISLE 1 ENE 14.5 137 PM 12/19

STOCKHOLM 14.5 1107 AM 12/19

LINNEUS 14.0 954 AM 12/19

WINTERVILLE 1 NW 14.0 1050 AM 12/19

ASHLAND 2 SSE 14.0 802 AM 12/19

PRESQUE ISLE 18 SSW 14.0 1209 PM 12/19

PERHAM 14.0 657 AM 12/19

FORT KENT - COOP 13.0 800 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

PORTAGE 2 N 13.0 855 AM 12/19

STOCKHOLM 3 W 12.0 959 AM 12/19

GUERETTE 2 S 12.0 638 AM 12/19

ISLAND FALLS 1 SW 12.0 1045 AM 12/19

MAPLETON 12.0 558 AM 12/19

SAINT AGATHA 2 WNW 11.8 134 PM 12/19

FORT KENT 2 S 11.5 610 AM 12/19

SHERMAN 1 E 11.0 736 AM 12/19

CARIBOU - WFO 11.0 100 PM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

NEW SWEDEN 10.0 953 AM 12/19

PRESQUE ISLE 10.0 516 AM 12/19

LITTLETON 1 SW 9.0 700 AM 12/19

CONNOR 8.2 924 AM 12/19

ESTCOURT 4 SW 8.0 1039 AM 12/19

MARS HILL 2 WNW 8.0 1031 AM 12/19

ISLAND FALLS 8.0 1227 PM 12/19

LITTLETON 8.0 1003 AM 12/19

WESTFIELD 2 NE 7.4 801 AM 12/19

ST. FRANCIS 11 SW 7.0 700 AM 12/19

LILLE 5 SSE 7.0 531 AM 12/19

MADAWASKA 1 WSW 7.0 557 AM 12/19

SAINT PAMPHILE 2 NW 6.5 1041 AM 12/19

FORT FAIRFIELD 3 WNW 6.0 808 AM 12/19

VAN BUREN - COOP 5.5 750 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

LILLE 5.3 1257 PM 12/19

VAN BUREN 5.0 623 AM 12/19

HOULTON 1 S 4.5 657 AM 12/19

LIMESTONE 4.0 719 AM 12/19

FORT FAIRFIELD 2 NE 3.0 1100 AM 12/19

...PENOBSCOT COUNTY...

SHIN POND 3 SSE 22.5 1216 PM 12/19

SHIN POND 19.0 1037 AM 12/19

PATTEN 17.0 1029 AM 12/19

MILLINOCKET 6 NW 16.0 858 AM 12/19

MILLINOCKET WWTP 6.5 730 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

CHARLESTON 4.0 953 AM 12/19

LINCOLN 4 NE 1.8 500 AM 12/19

BANGOR - CWO 1.2 801 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

CORINNA - COOP 1.0 740 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

GLENBURN 2 NE 0.8 630 AM 12/19

...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...

KOKADJO 12.0 1044 AM 12/19

GUILFORD 6.0 1050 AM 12/19

GREENVILLE 5.0 1043 AM 12/19

DOVER-FOXCROFT - COO 1.5 720 AM 12/19 CO-OP OBSERVER

[TrueBlue]

Yup, Spoke with Gary at the Northland and Eric at Spruce Meadow Cabins on FB, They did well so far this week and its not over

I meant to say his camp is in Eustis as you had indicated you were heading there over NYE, sorry.

Eric indicated 15" as of 1 am this morning do you have any current info since 1 am?

[adk]

What are you guys thinking is going to happen in the mountains from Friday's storm?

Is your scroll feature broken?

[adk]

BTV was on-board yesterday and then this morning's discussion sort just didn't mention it at all. I'm surprised because I think this could have some decent travel impacts in west slope communities/I-89 between BTV-MPV, and RT 100 corridor. I would imagine they'll need at least an advisory for the usual spots as temps crash into the teens and 20s with NW winds and falling snow.

Different forecaster? I forget the names of the people in the office but two of them are pretty good at talking upslope and the rest don't really do it. So if somebody else wrote the morning package that might be it.

I agree. At the very least we're advisory level snowfall Sat PM Thru Monday AM for richmond thru Waterbury and then rte 100 N/S. App Gap area as well.

Also don't forget the nor. adk. Roads can get really remote and really tricky there fast. (Though they do a MUCH better job on 87 than VT does on 89). I'd suspect some advisory would be required for those areas as well.

On another note this weekend is why I want a snow data set high in the high peaks. We think the adk gets less snow in vt. But where are we to measure? WF? That place has a very low base elevation that is shielded and the top gets smacked with wind. All the snow blows off in an instant. Lake Placid? it's at 2kft and behind mountains. I personally am always shocked by the snow depth in the High Peaks.

[dryslot]

I meant to say his camp is in Eustis as you had indicated you were heading there over NYE, sorry.

Eric indicated 15" as of 1 am this morning do you have any current info since 1 am?

Whereabout in Eustis?,Yeah, Eric said 15", That's is what i heard, They are going to see some more on friday, But it looks like a mix, But that won't hurt that snowpack

[MarkO]

Is your scroll feature broken?

Am I missing something? I haven't read anyone make any kind of forecast for the mountains today.

[TrueBlue]

Whereabout in Eustis?,Yeah, Eric said 15", That's is what i heard, They are going to see some more on friday, But it looks like a mix, But that won't hurt that snowpack

Hammond Hill, just past Pines on the left off Caldwell Road at the top of the ridge. We are probably heading up over NYE as well with the kiddos to do some riding/sliding etc.

[dryslot]

Hammond Hill, just past Pines on the left off Caldwell Road at the top of the ridge. We are probably heading up over NYE as well with the kiddos to do some riding/sliding etc.

I stay over on the Tim Pond camp road, Got a couple of friends that have places there, We need some ice though

[TrueBlue]

I stay over on the Tim Pond camp road, Got a couple of friends that have places there

Know the area well, but havent spent much time there since my son was born. Hoping to spend alot more time there now that he can ride with me. We used to rent a house on Flagstaff for the winter. Do you know if Kerns or Trails End will be open this year?

[dryslot]

Know the area well, but havent spent much time there since my son was born. Hoping to spend alot more time there now that he can ride with me. We used to rent a house on Flagstaff for the winter. Do you know if Kerns or Trails End will be open this year?

Last i knew, Trails end was still open, Kern's i don't know, They have been closed for a couple years now

[tamarack]

That wasn't directed at you, just a silly comparison from that channel.

And it's common for newsies to make the 10:1 comment every time there's a major rain event.

However, in storms like these past two days, it can be oh so close. After getting a welcome 9" from 0.75" LE Sun-Mon, storm #2 has given MBY 3" from 1.75" without the temp ever climbing above 33. Places within under an hour's drive have gotten 15" and more. The classic was 2/25-28/2010. All of central/western Maine got 3-6" precip with temps low-mid 30s. AUG got an inch or so of snow, Farmington 9" of 4:1 mashed potatos plus rain, Temple cocorahs (6 miles WNW and less than 250' higher than Farmington COOP) had 26", and the 'Loaf probably twice that.

[powderfreak]

Snowing steadily with colder surfaces accumulating a new dusting. Up at ski resort roads are snowpacked and full on winter above 1200ft.

[ono]

On another note this weekend is why I want a snow data set high in the high peaks. We think the adk gets less snow in vt. But where are we to measure? WF? That place has a very low base elevation that is shielded and the top gets smacked with wind. All the snow blows off in an instant. Lake Placid? it's at 2kft and behind mountains. I personally am always shocked by the snow depth in the High Peaks.

what are your thoughts on the patterns for the Dacks? Don't really have a grasp of how things fall there. Whiteface averages half the snowfall of northern VT resorts, but ya gotta think that while the Spine is unique, the Dacks have to be pulling over 200-250" in some places between lake effect, some upslope, and synoptic events.

what does the snowpack end up looking like midwinter? does it consistently make it over 40" above 2000-2500 ft? there's gotta be some good stashes somewhere in those mountains.

[ono]

Snowing steadily with colder surfaces accumulating a new dusting. Up at ski resort roads are snowpacked and full on winter above 1200ft.

looks like you're in the sweet spot. not much else showing up but north of 89. looks like there's a pulse of moisture upstream on the plains. see how the NW flow and some LL moisture work tonight. picking up a couple more inches never hurts.

PF-overall, how's the mountain/snowpack looking at this point in the game? wondering what the situation is for natural terrain.

[powderfreak]

The difference between town at 700-900ft and the base of the ski resort at 1500ft is pretty big right now. Looks like another world. Here in town there's 3" of waterlogged snow on the ground and nothing on the trees...up at 1500 they got another 2-3" of wet snow last night that's plastered to everything with like 6-8" on the ground. Snow on every little branch with holiday lights and snowpacked roads...looks amazing up there. The wet snow last night came in on NW winds so it is plastered an inch thick up and down every tree trunk too.

Looks like mid winter up there all the sudden. At least my grass is covered down here, haha.

33F -SN

[wxeyeNH]

Maintained our snowcover today. Lots of grass showing at Newfound Lake level but just the extra 500 feet at my house makes all the difference. I would expect 1 to 3" late tomorrow night before the deludge so we should be able to maintain snowcover now. This snow is very durable with the ice coating on top. Any thoughts as to accums in C/NNE from the next storm? Snow to rain to snow, then of course the upslope kicks in for Powderfreak et al.

[powderfreak]

looks like you're in the sweet spot. not much else showing up but north of 89. looks like there's a pulse of moisture upstream on the plains. see how the NW flow and some LL moisture work tonight. picking up a couple more inches never hurts.

PF-overall, how's the mountain/snowpack looking at this point in the game? wondering what the situation is for natural terrain.

MVL ASOS been showing 1-3sm -SN lately and it's been steady small flakes with a dusting now on most surfaces as temps dip to freezing. These are the Green Mtns I know...persistent light snow.

Mountain is in good shape now...2500ft and higher has a solid 12-15" snowpack with a lot of liquid so it's durable. Natural snow terrain is one more snowfall away now that there's this durable base layer. Trees are obviously about 2-3 feet of settled snow away, but natural snow cut trails are pretty close. The upslope this weekend should do it.

[powderfreak]

Man BTV with a great disco these guys have been killing it lately. Very small flakes falling and they are all over it haha:

Water vapor continues to show cyclonic follow across our County Warning Area...with weak shear axis of enhanced relative humidity across northern Vermont this afternoon...with several embedded vorts. This weak energy and leftover relative humidity...will combined with upslope follow and surface trough to produce some light snow showers through this evening. Additional accumulation will be light <1". With greatest snowfall above 1800 feet from Jay Peak to smuggs to Stowe to Sugarbush. Interesting both the NAM/btv4 show good low level moisture (sfc through 5000 ft) but limited relative humidity in favorable snow growth region...so anticipate small flakes with some riming likely...especially above 1800 feet. Whiteface web cam already showing lots of rime. Given temperatures slowly falling blw 0c and wet pavement of leftover precipitation...would not be surprised if a few patches of black ice develop on area roadways/sidewalks tonight.

[ono]

Mountain is in good shape now...2500ft and higher has a solid 12-15" snowpack with a lot of liquid so it's durable. Natural snow terrain is one more snowfall away now that there's this durable base layer. Trees are obviously about 2-3 feet of settled snow away, but natural snow cut trails are pretty close. The upslope this weekend should do it.

maybe 15-20 days from now, with luck, things will fill in... we'll see. hints of a good pattern around new years abound. but ya never know. one surprise stretch could do it all.

[powderfreak]

Also great disco on high wind potential:

Next threat will be high wind threat along western slopes/northern dacks for Friday morning between 09z-18z. NAM/GFS show very strong southeast low level jet of 60 to 85 knots lifting from south to north across our County Warning Area. Like many previous wind events...still some questions with regards to mixing of strongest winds to the surface and overall areal coverage of gusty winds. Local btv 4km shows bottom of stable layer winds of 60 to 70 knots from near Rutland to Jay Peak...along the western slope between 12z-18z Friday...but this is also the same time precipitation is arriving from the south...which could limit mixing. Also...local high resolution...showing strong upward vertical velocities and pressure Couplets along the western slopes and parts of the dacks near Malone...suggesting strong winds. Will issue high wind watch for western slopes...including LaMoille County for very localized gusts to 65 miles per hour. In addition...will include the northern dacks...due to the strong 925mb to 850mb wind fields and potential for some downslope enhancements of winds near Malone. Thinking strongest winds will be near Rutland...East Middlebury...Ripton...Nashville...North Underhill...Cambridge...and Jay Peak...but on east side of the Green Mountains from Ludlow to Waitsfield to Stowe Village winds will be much less. Also...mixing will be limited in the nek with gusts between 35 and 45 miles per hour possible.

[mreaves]

Man BTV with a great disco these guys have been killing it lately. Very small flakes falling and they are all over it haha:

Water vapor continues to show cyclonic follow across our County Warning Area...with weak shear axis of enhanced relative humidity across northern Vermont this afternoon...with several embedded vorts. This weak energy and leftover relative humidity...will combined with upslope follow and surface trough to produce some light snow showers through this evening. Additional accumulation will be light <1". With greatest snowfall above 1800 feet from Jay Peak to smuggs to Stowe to Sugarbush. Interesting both the NAM/btv4 show good low level moisture (sfc through 5000 ft) but limited relative humidity in favorable snow growth region...so anticipate small flakes with some riming likely...especially above 1800 feet. Whiteface web cam already showing lots of rime. Given temperatures slowly falling blw 0c and wet pavement of leftover precipitation...would not be surprised if a few patches of black ice develop on area roadways/sidewalks tonight.

Interesting, there was a light mist in downtown Montpelier when I left work but by the time I got on 89 going up the hill it was tiny flakes. Couldn't have been more than a 25-30 foot difference in elevation. I figured it was some sort of orographic deal. Pretty cool.

[powderfreak]

Interesting, there was a light mist in downtown Montpelier when I left work but by the time I got on 89 going up the hill it was tiny flakes. Couldn't have been more than a 25-30 foot difference in elevation. I figured it was some sort of orographic deal. Pretty cool.

Yeah seems widespread light snow/mist as Montpelier ASOS has been showing Light Snow this evening too.

[eekuasepinniW]

Also great disco on high wind potential:

Next threat will be high wind threat along western slopes/northern dacks for Friday morning between 09z-18z. NAM/GFS show very strong southeast low level jet of 60 to 85 knots lifting from south to north across our County Warning Area. Like many previous wind events...still some questions with regards to mixing of strongest winds to the surface and overall areal coverage of gusty winds. Local btv 4km shows bottom of stable layer winds of 60 to 70 knots from near Rutland to Jay Peak...along the western slope between 12z-18z Friday...but this is also the same time precipitation is arriving from the south...which could limit mixing. Also...local high resolution...showing strong upward vertical velocities and pressure Couplets along the western slopes and parts of the dacks near Malone...suggesting strong winds. Will issue high wind watch for western slopes...including LaMoille County for very localized gusts to 65 miles per hour. In addition...will include the northern dacks...due to the strong 925mb to 850mb wind fields and potential for some downslope enhancements of winds near Malone. Thinking strongest winds will be near Rutland...East Middlebury...Ripton...Nashville...North Underhill...Cambridge...and Jay Peak...but on east side of the Green Mountains from Ludlow to Waitsfield to Stowe Village winds will be much less. Also...mixing will be limited in the nek with gusts between 35 and 45 miles per hour possible.

I don't care if the spine hoards all the snow, but man does it ever chap my ass when it starts taking my precious wind too.

I'll just have to enjoy my 15mph gusts. I really need another 10/29/06.

[powderfreak]

Nice mood snow or white mist continuing haha...looks nice in the spotlight at least and only accumulating to a thin white film on everything.

32F

[CardinalWinds]

Interesting, there was a light mist in downtown Montpelier when I left work but by the time I got on 89 going up the hill it was tiny flakes. Couldn't have been more than a 25-30 foot difference in elevation. I figured it was some sort of orographic deal. Pretty cool.

Yep, I saw that late this afternoon. Went downtown (Montpelier) to run some errards, descended down from my house at 875', and light snow changed to drizzle at about the 700' mark, was all liquid downtown and the reverse occured on the way back up. I love when that happens, and it happens at least a few times each season.

I'm such a