OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS and NAM shows rain changing to a heavy snow Friday. Am I missing something? Well similar to this event, it will depend on how quickly heights can crash back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Pretty warm on the 12z Nam in the H85 and H925mb layer on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That melting layer is actually dropping southeast through Oxford and Franklin Counites in Maine. Upslope cooling is doing the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Sugarloaf posted a picture to Facebook an hour ago, absolutely ripping like you described PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Had -RA/slush and 32+ when I left the house at 6:45, and almost immediately drove into all "snow" - big globs that reminded me of Feb 2010's mashed potato event. Radar has shown lots of 30-40 dbz over S.Franklin since then, so we may have picked up some slush accum before the complete changeover. With this stuff plus the probable Fri RA (mostly), the cooldown over the weekend is going to leave a frozen mass of slips, trips, and falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 There is a chance, but it has some work to do. The Euro ensembles offer a glimmer of hope with cooler temps aloft, but I have a hard time seeing how it at least wouldn't be a repeat of this storm today. So you are telling me there's a chance..... Yeahhhh!!! Sorry had to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Sugarloaf posted a picture to Facebook an hour ago, absolutely ripping like you described PF. Very elevation dependent... I'm surprised this took on more of an elevation snow aspect rather than a sleet/zr event. Still holding at 29F at 3600ft and 30F at 2600ft and 33F at 1,500ft. Essentially white rain down here at 1,500ft but you can see the tight snowline around 1,800-2000ft where the trees go from that rainy brown look to caked. If the sun came out (haha good luck) it would look spectacular with the rime and snow accums above 2,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Very elevation dependent... I'm surprised this took on more of an elevation snow aspect rather than a sleet/zr event. Still holding at 29F at 3600ft and 30F at 2600ft and 33F at 1,500ft. Essentially white rain down here at 1,500ft but you can see the tight snowline around 1,800-2000ft where the trees go from that rainy brown look to caked. If the sun came out (haha good luck) it would look spectacular with the rime and snow accums above 2,000ft. The more I thought about it the more I realized it was probably going to go straight elevation dependent. I pulled that wholesale change with my last forecast update this morning, and took out most of the ZR/IP. GFS and Euro really had that idea pegged. Keeping the mountains mostly snow throughout, maybe a brief flip to rain this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Essentially the air mass is marginally above freezing, and the strong upslope flow is providing enough cooling to keep that heavy, wet aggregates falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's amazing how warm that pocket of air must be over Ontario to cause what effectively looks like Lake Effect Rain almost out of the due north coming off Lake Ontario and Erie right now. How often this time of year do you see echos trailing due south from virtually the north pole and have it be rain! Leaves me pretty skeptical that we can cool off enough to see much precip fall later today around here as frozen at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's amazing how warm that pocket of air must be over Ontario to cause what effectively looks like Lake Effect Rain almost out of the due north coming off Lake Ontario and Erie right now. How often this time of year do you see echos trailing due south from virtually the north pole and have it be rain! Leaves me pretty skeptical that we can cool off enough to see much precip fall later today around here as frozen at lower elevations. You still raining up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You still raining up there? Yes. quite heavily in fact. I am about to put on the winter trax to go for a walk up to the top of our ~1800' hill, will report back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I headed in to Burlington today, so I can pass along some snowfall and snowpack observations from my trip. Leaving the house at around 8:30 A.M. or so, the temperature was a bit above freezing and the precipitation was a mixture of rain and snow. The change in snowpack as I headed west was even more dramatic than it was yesterday – just a couple miles west at the start of the Bolton Flats area, there’s basically just an old coating/dusting of snow, and in Jonesville and Richmond there’s nothing at all on the ground. Temperatures were up to around 36 F in the Bolton Flats area, and at least a bit of snow stayed in the precipitation until around Bolton. West of there it was plain rain, with temperatures rising to around 40 F in the Burlington area. There is a trace/coating of snow around here on the UVM campus though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS looks much colder to me for Friday. With these trends it may not take much to get closer to a frozen event. Right now, sleet/freezing rain, to rain, to heavy snow. Secondary gets going earlier, colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS looks much colder to me for Friday. With these trends it may not take much to get closer to a frozen event. Right now, sleet/freezing rain, to rain, to heavy snow. Secondary gets going earlier, colder. You really need to look at the upper levels and not just the surface maps, It is marginal at H850 and H925 which would not support snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You really need to look at the upper levels and not just the surface maps, It is marginal at H850 and H925 which would not support snow Yeah your right, but at least it seems to be getting colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Rain. 38. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ice pellets mixing in at 1600'. Almost 100% ice with a wee bit of rain at 1800' in Peacham, VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Low looks like it will move up and bring 3-6 to the mountains. If not more. I think this is going to be a very positive storm for the mountains.Next saturday looks great too btw. Sure some rain on the front end...but the upslope signature sat thru monday is stellar. Yeah, I saw that on the models, pretty cool. I’d take this type of pattern with tainted storms any day of the week over watching systems head out to sea. Dry and cold will never build the snowpack, but even with this less than optimal storm track, the mountain snowpack is building. Heck, we’re even getting snow to fall and accumulate down in the lowest mountain valleys, so the current setup can’t be considered that bad. I actually really like these PNW-style days, it’s comfortable outside, and you know that mixed precipitation down low is probably dense snow falling in the high country to substantiate the base. I like the look of the Mansfield point forecast too; Thursday sort of sticks out like a sore thumb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So far I would say that this forecast is not verifying too well, especially as to temperature. http://www.almanac.c...grange/VT/Barre DECEMBER 2012:temperature 26.5° (1.5° below avg.); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Dec 1-3: Rain and snow, then sunny, cold; Dec 4-6: Snow to rain;Dec 7-11: Flurries, seasonable; Dec 12-15: Snow, then rain showers, mild; Dec 16-20: Snow showers, cold; Dec 21-24: Heavy snow, then sunny, cold; Dec 25-31: Snowy periods, very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Watching it dumping at Sugarloaf on webcam more interesting than out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is just days and days of snow for the upslope region after the Friday event...and even that is getting colder. This synoptic set-up is text book for heavy upslope snows. Hour 108... A day later at hour 126, still snowing. Then it retrogrades it and it starts snowing again early/mid next week with more NW flow moisture... what a weenie run for the upslope regions. Sniffing out a big event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Little back end snow on the 12z Euro with the departing low on weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Little back end snow on the 12z Euro with the departing low on weds? At this point I'll take back end, front end or side end. Brown Xmas is for regions south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Then it retrogrades it and it starts snowing again early/mid next week with more NW flow moisture... what a weenie run for the upslope regions. Sniffing out a big event? Let’s hope; that would be great for the resorts during the holiday week - nothing like upslope to infuse some holiday spirit into the visitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Dodged a bullet at the ski resort with this storm...especially above 2,000ft. Here's my 9am snow plot check at 3,000ft High Road... Of course the snow is stacked up on one side of the measuring pole near the 5 inch line from the front angle, but dropping a ruler into it gave right around 4.2" on the board. Total depth at that elevation is 13 inches. 9 inches new in the last 48 hours clearing the board twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looking good, VT peeps! Sounds like winter is there to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is just days and days of snow for the upslope region after the Friday event...and even that is getting colder. This synoptic set-up is text book for heavy upslope snows. Hour 108... A day later at hour 126, still snowing. Then it retrogrades it and it starts snowing again early/mid next week with more NW flow moisture... what a weenie run for the upslope regions. Sniffing out a big event? As I've said before in this thread: Upslope on for this weekend. The heck with rain on the front end. Early call. 12-24 above 2500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 As I've said before in this thread: Upslope on for this weekend. The heck with rain on the front end. Early call. 12-24 above 2500 feet. Euro has it to for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 As I've said before in this thread: Upslope on for this weekend. The heck with rain on the front end. Early call. 12-24 above 2500 feet. Please, please let some sneak east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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