OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wasn't the nam's thermal profile to warm with wave 1 also? It was (is?) definitely too aggressive with the mixing. I had to manually try and force the PL back to the SW in the grids because it is too far into NH and ME with it this morning. So either we're looking at 2" of rain for the coast and interior, or we're throwing up headlines for more winter weather. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Guess public works decided to take this storm off... my part of route 3 is just madness now. Cars all over the place, sliding into the ditch on the the hill, moving about 5mph. Haven't seen it all snarled like this for several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wasn't the nam's thermal profile to warm with wave 1 also? Yes, all models now came in much too warm. This entire thing is poorly modeled. Now they are going colder. We are trending more and more to all snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It was (is?) definitely too aggressive with the mixing. I had to manually try and force the PL back to the SW in the grids because it is too far into NH and ME with it this morning. So either we're looking at 2" of rain for the coast and interior, or we're throwing up headlines for more winter weather. No big deal. I rather see the headlines for winter weather obviously.............lol, Will watch the model trends today and hope they stay on the colder side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 1.8" overnight brings my storm total to 3.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 This makes sense... it was absolutely ripping up here from like 5:30-7am. Looks like BTV picked up a quick inch with that batch, too. Just over 4" at the base right now and looks to have tapered to flurries so far. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 628 AM EST MONDAY...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING DROPPING A QUICK INCH OF SNOW HERE AT THE AIRPORT. PRETTY HEAVY RADAR RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...DOES NOT LOOK AS HEAVY AS THE PRECIP THAT CAME THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THOUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 3.5" heavy snow. NAM ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is the cold trend for tomorrow only cad in Maine or does it apply for Vermont as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 3.5" heavy snow. NAM ftw? Definitely had the right idea on magnitude of WAA forced QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 3.5" heavy snow. NAM ftw? ftl on the temps but that's a good thing............. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Enjoying a nice 3.5" of snow out there at Lyndon State. 26F/26F. 0.18" of Liquid since midnight. Light to Moderate Snow continues. Roads covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 -SN here, 3.5" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 -SN here, 3.5" total 8" at shawnee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 ftl on the temps but that's a good thing............. . Haha....26 here now...hopefully we don't get too warm aloft. Still 19.9F on Mansfield, so we haven't gotten too bad at ~875mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yes, all models now came in much too warm. This entire thing is poorly modeled. Now the are going colder. We are trending more and more to all snow and sleet. Looks like just a colder rain for the coast with the next two systems, and rain for most on Friday. Never a good sign when the AFD references possible hydro issues. This one has been a nice over-performer though; about 4" here and still coming down, with temps holding in the low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Haha....26 here now...hopefully we don't get too warm aloft. Still 19.9F on Mansfield, so we haven't gotten too bad at ~875mb. That's a good thing, You know your heading for trouble when the top of Mansfield is warmer then the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Definitely had the right idea on magnitude of WAA forced QPF. Yeah I noticed that. Looking at the 0z Euro, by h48 850 0c is SOUTH of 1V4. What're you're thoughts on the colder solutions? (Forecasting for VTrans today,lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah I noticed that. Looking at the 0z Euro, by h48 850 0c is SOUTH of 1V4. What're you're thoughts on the colder solutions? (Forecasting for VTrans today,lol). I kind of buy it. I could see a scenario where we have H8 temps +/- 1 of 0C over the whole area, then see them crash towards the coast as the coastal low gets going. The sooner we can get that secondary to develop the more likely we're going to stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I kind of buy it. I could see a scenario where we have H8 temps +/- 1 of 0C over the whole area, then see them crash towards the coast as the coastal low gets going. The sooner we can get that secondary to develop the more likely we're going to stay frozen. Yeah it would be nice to see a redevelopment with rapid cyclogensis for it to stay snow but I see that being less the likeihood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I kind of buy it. I could see a scenario where we have H8 temps +/- 1 of 0C over the whole area, then see them crash towards the coast as the coastal low gets going. The sooner we can get that secondary to develop the more likely we're going to stay frozen. Right. I'm thinking it could it be a situation where its 34F RA/IP in 'civilization' aka the valley, while above like 2,000ft is sleeting. Then, we all crash back and snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Man I hope so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Just a hair under 3 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sure would be nice if we could get that Friday system to trend colder. Seems like a shame to waste this hard-warned snowcover! I've tried not to inflict my obsession on my kids, but they're badgering me about a white Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 5.5" and still coming down. Man I hope we can avoid the gulley washer. Seems most inappropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Total of 6.3" with 0.37" LE at 7 AM, and about 1/2" since with continuing -SN. Had 2.3" of 25:1 fluff at my 9 PM obs time, then 4.0" with 0.28" LE overnight. Current GYX forecast has the foothills staying mostly frozen, with 1-3" today, 2-4" tonight, another 3-5" tomorrow. Hope it works out that well, especially given the trend toward cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2.7" here and still snowing when I left for work at 7:30, not snowing here in Montpelier right now though. It was a really fine, almost sleety snow when I went to bed at 11:30 so I figured we were done, happy to see we weren't. Now, if could just wishcast the next couple of systems colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Nice overnight surprise. 4" on the nose, 0.38" LE at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Total of 6.3" with 0.37" LE at 7 AM, and about 1/2" since with continuing -SN. Had 2.3" of 25:1 fluff at my 9 PM obs time, then 4.0" with 0.28" LE overnight. Current GYX forecast has the foothills staying mostly frozen, with 1-3" today, 2-4" tonight, another 3-5" tomorrow. Hope it works out that well, especially given the trend toward cooler. There ought to be a pretty sharp gradient to your east with snowfall totals today. We kept getting waves of snow at AUG, WVL, and RKD where it would drop to 1SM -SN then back to P6SM and OVC as the dry air ate the leading edge of precip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Had about 3.5 with 2.0" new overnight when I left this morning. It was a bit of a hairy ride in as the roads were pretty snowy and folks were doing some wierd things. I was stuck behind someone who was 90% in the left lane of the two lane road and doing about 15 to 20 mph in the 50 mph zone. (The left lane was no clearer than the right in that area.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 snow has shutoff for now here at Lyndon State.... Temp/Dew 28F/28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.