Allenson Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Cool map, OceanSt and thanks for sharing. Light snow just breaking out here this morning with a whopping fresh dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can anyone find the CAD? Not an easy forecast tonight. QPF concerns with dry air in place plus very little upstream at this time. Plus how much falls as what ptype. Then you have to figure out when to call the first event done and move onto the next coastal. We seriously are facing a situation where you have a winter weather advisory for 12"+ of snow because none of it falls within a 24 hour period. I'd never seen the ice map before (probably because I'd never looked), and it's quite interesting - reaches to my front yard, not quite to the back. lol 4-7" would be fine, though the 1" of armorplate here will mean some serious slippery. Dry snow on ice is about as close to frictionless as one can get outside of a lab. Just hope it all isn't sluiced into the Sandy River later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'd never seen the ice map before (probably because I'd never looked), and it's quite interesting - reaches to my front yard, not quite to the back. lol 4-7" would be fine, though the 1" of armorplate here will mean some serious slippery. Dry snow on ice is about as close to frictionless as one can get outside of a lab. Just hope it all isn't sluiced into the Sandy River later in the week. The ice maps are a very recent addition to our website. Obviously the demand is there, so we're now producing them when significant ice is forecast. At least in this case we're expecting snow before the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The ice maps are a very recent addition to our website. Obviously the demand is there, so we're now producing them when significant ice is forecast. At least in this case we're expecting snow before the ice. An excellent addition! (Though it makes me wonder what they would've looked like on Jan 7, 1998.) Thin overcast has moved in here since 6 AM, bumping the temp up to middle singles - had been a couple degrees below zero earlier. Lots of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 An excellent addition! (Though it makes me wonder what they would've looked like on Jan 7, 1998.) Thin overcast has moved in here since 6 AM, bumping the temp up to middle singles - had been a couple degrees below zero earlier. Lots of cold air in place. Wow, cold up there! 18F and solid overcast here, ready for the show to start though it will be bittersweet knowing what happens Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Very cool map and analysis OceanStWx, very tough forecast all week!! We also have some very light snow breaking out temp at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 An excellent addition! (Though it makes me wonder what they would've looked like on Jan 7, 1998.) Thin overcast has moved in here since 6 AM, bumping the temp up to middle singles - had been a couple degrees below zero earlier. Lots of cold air in place. It was discussed what to make the upper limit of the scale, and as you can see it is lower than the reports from 1998. Mostly because that is such an extreme scenario that we can get better detail by keeping things capped at 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It was discussed what to make the upper limit of the scale, and as you can see it is lower than the reports from 1998. Mostly because that is such an extreme scenario that we can get better detail by keeping things capped at 2". And post 2" it probably doesn't make a huge difference lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The ice maps are a very recent addition to our website. Obviously the demand is there, so we're now producing them when significant ice is forecast. At least in this case we're expecting snow before the ice. I can see the cad...........lol, Right over our heads, Great maps by the way, You can see the area where the heaviest precip is outlined, We usually do quite well in LEW on SWFE's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 In case any of you have lost interest, 12z runs pretty important to determine if tues/wed event can be more snow than rain up here. Last night nam was a blue bomb and gfs shifted primary and secondary another 100 miles east. If trend continues we could be in money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 In case any of you have lost interest, 12z runs pretty important to determine if tues/wed event can be more snow than rain up here. Last night nam was a blue bomb and gfs shifted primary and secondary another 100 miles east. If trend continues we could be in money. 12Z GFS made another slight shift SE with the primary, This may get interesting for some that are on the fence in the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I don't get how the 0 c line can be so far north of the low. I guess the primary riding so far west allows the torch to ride way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 We saw the first flakes for this event here in Waterbury at 9:57 A.M., just as we were coming out of mass in town, so it looks like the dry weather is over and we’re on to the active pattern. I saw on the BTV NWS site that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory, although projected snowfall amounts are certainly more notable off to the east: It seems like we’re still in that pattern of systems cutting to the west, but even though the systems won’t be all snow, I have to think the mountains are going to put some liquid equivalent into the base – the Mt. Mansfield forecast shows lots of frozen precipitation: The mountains could definitely use this precipitation though – the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is currently at 6 inches, and the mean for this date based on the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Graph looks to be around 26 inches, so it is extremely low. We’re also past the mean date when the first off piste skiing forays would be taking place based on my calculations using stake data. On a similar note, I did a mid month assessment of snowfall here at the house, and 2012-2013 is now the least snowy winter through this point since I started collecting data here. It’s even fallen below the slow-starting 2006-2007, and it’s now well outside the 1 S.D. mark; it’s actually 1.27 S.D. below the mean. The updated mid month plot is below: Snow is accumulating outside right now though, so we’ll have to see where this week takes the snowfall stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I don't get how the 0 c line can be so far north of the low. I guess the primary riding so far west allows the torch to ride way up. Yes, The less latitude and west that gains the better off we will be, A weaker primary with a further south development would help as well as the colder air that is available would be pulled back SE, At least the trends seem to be on the positive side so we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yes, The less latitude and west that gains the better off we will be, A weaker primary with a further south development would help as well as the colder air that is available would be pulled back SE, At least the trends seem to be on the positive side so we will see It'll be close I think. Seems like its continuing to trend SE. I'm telling ya, it could very well be a 32F sleet fest. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Snow is accumulating outside right now though, so we’ll have to see where this week takes the snowfall stats. I checked outside and as of 11:20 A.M. the snow was closing in on 0.3” of accumulation, so it’s definitely reached the 0.1” mark and will be going into the books. It’s actually only been a week since the last storm with accumulation, but this week’s dry stretch felt surprisingly long for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It'll be close I think. Seems like its continuing to trend SE. I'm telling ya, it could very well be a 32F sleet fest. Lol Folks asking where the cold air is, Its not far........... BIG BLACK RIVER (885 FT)(GOES) 700 AM DEC 16 -20 F ESTCOURT STATION MAWS (724 FT)(GOES) 645 AM DEC 16 -20 F NINE MILE BRIDGE (931 FT)(GOES) 700 AM DEC 16 -18 F 1 NW CLAYTON LAKE (1030 FT)(AWOS) 725 AM DEC 16 -18 F DICKEY (590 FT)(GOES) 700 AM DEC 16 -13 F LIMESTONE 630 AM DEC 16 -11 F NORTHERN MAINE REGIONAL AIRPORT (AWOS) 655 AM DEC 16 -11 F 5 SE GRAND ISLE (711 FT)(APRSWXNET) 701 AM DEC 16 -7 F HOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (ASOS) 653 AM DEC 16 -7 F 4 E NEW SWEDEN (680 FT)(APRSWXNET) 640 AM DEC 16 -6 F 1 NE CARIBOU (544 FT)(APRSWXNET) 722 AM DEC 16 -6 F 1 ENE PRESQUE ISLE (649 FT)(APRSWXNET) 728 AM DEC 16 -6 F CARIBOU, ME (624 FT)(ASOS) 654 AM DEC 16 -5 F 1 NW PRESQUE ISLE (540 FT)(AIRNOW) 600 AM DEC 16 -4 F NORTHERN AROOSTOOK REGIONAL AIRPORT 653 AM DEC 16 -4 F 1 SSE FORT KENT (531 FT)(APRSWXNET) 637 AM DEC 16 -4 F 2 W SAINT AGATHA (825 FT)(APRSWXNET) 515 AM DEC 16 -2 F 5 SE WINTERVILLE (1186 FT)(MEDOT) 724 AM DEC 16 -2 F 2 SSW ASHLAND (6030 FT)(AIRNOW) 600 AM DEC 16 -2 F MADAWASKA (503 FT)(AWS) 640 AM DEC 16 -1 F 3 NW MONTICELLO (574 FT)(APRSWXNET) 650 AM DEC 16 -1 F 5 NE MARS HILL (633 FT)(APRSWXNET) 746 AM DEC 16 -1 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It'll be close I think. Seems like its continuing to trend SE. I'm telling ya, it could very well be a 32F sleet fest. Lol I'd take that over rain, Whites and Northern Maine look to see close to if not more then a foot of snow verbatim, HPC had a nice disco on that 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Could u link that disco cold front, ill be up there mon-wed nite and I'm on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Could u link that disco cold front, ill be up there mon-wed nite and I'm on mobile Here you go cpick........ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 I checked outside and as of 11:20 A.M. the snow was closing in on 0.3” of accumulation, so it’s definitely reached the 0.1” mark and will be going into the books. It’s actually only been a week since the last storm with accumulation, but this week’s dry stretch felt surprisingly long for some reason. Quick half inch at 1,550ft on Mansfield as of 12pm. Snowing a steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Shift that secondary another 75-100mi east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Snow is accumulating outside right now though, so we’ll have to see where this week takes the snowfall stats. That's pretty incredible how its turned out so far for natural. Hasn't felt that bad with snowmaking getting the job done... but we have definitely had a lack of our usual orographic snowfalls at the very least, much less synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXheights Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 We saw the first flakes for this event here in Waterbury at 9:57 A.M., just as we were coming out of mass in town, so it looks like the dry weather is over and we’re on to the active pattern. I saw on the BTV NWS site that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory, although projected snowfall amounts are certainly more notable off to the east: It seems like we’re still in that pattern of systems cutting to the west, but even though the systems won’t be all snow, I have to think the mountains are going to put some liquid equivalent into the base – the Mt. Mansfield forecast shows lots of frozen precipitation: The mountains could definitely use this precipitation though – the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is currently at 6 inches, and the mean for this date based on the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Graph looks to be around 26 inches, so it is extremely low. We’re also past the mean date when the first off piste skiing forays would be taking place based on my calculations using stake data. On a similar note, I did a mid month assessment of snowfall here at the house, and 2012-2013 is now the least snowy winter through this point since I started collecting data here. It’s even fallen below the slow-starting 2006-2007, and it’s now well outside the 1 S.D. mark; it’s actually 1.27 S.D. below the mean. The updated mid month plot is below: Snow is accumulating outside right now though, so we’ll have to see where this week takes the snowfall stats. This pre- xmas stretch is worst ever for lack of snow. My seasonal total is usually more respectable by this point -- not this year -- but op"poor"tunities abound - whoopie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.02” L.E. I ran a set of noontime observations, and the data are below. I called the precipitation light snow based on visibility, which is at least a half mile, but at times the snowfall picks up and seems to accumulate rather quickly. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 26.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: <0.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0.2" steady light snow 22/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0.2" steady light snow 22/16 Nice, Radar looks good over central NH with precip moving East, I should break out here in snow over the next hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Quick half inch at 1,550ft on Mansfield as of 12pm. Snowing a steady light snow. We’re in a bit of a lull right now with lighter snow, but it looks like there’s a nice slug of snowfall building off to the southwest on the Intellicast Radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yes, The less latitude and west that gains the better off we will be, A weaker primary with a further south development would help as well as the colder air that is available would be pulled back SE, At least the trends seem to be on the positive side so we will see If we an get it to be frozen midweek then tonights snow can be the snow pack setter...that would be good enough for me. About an hour and a half of either grapuel or snow gains and now we have light snow with a mix of grains or grapple accumulating on the road and slowly in the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If we an get it to be frozen midweek then tonights snow can be the snow pack setter...that would be good enough for me. About an hour and a half of either grapuel or snow gains and now we have light snow with a mix of grains or grapple accumulating on the road and slowly in the grass. We are trending better it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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