dendrite Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS totally different for storm number 2. Midlevels warm way up. 850 line in Canada. But look at the QPF. Holly cow. 3-4" for parts of CNE. Would this be a big ice storm for us? Would seem so if GFS wins over NAM. Sure looks like an interesting way either way after months of bordem!! A lot of the low level cold gets flushed out. Maybe it gets interesting for you at your elevation and latitude if that sfc low forms quickly well to our south toward LI, but I'm not feeling it for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Beautiful pic up above, borderwx! I always love the warm hues that sunrise gives. Went back to Chocorua today and what a magnificent day ... hundred-mile visibility. Here's a pic taken near the summit. Temp on the peak at 9:00am was 17F with a 21mph wind producing a wind chill of -4F. Just a smattering of snow in nooks and crannies but Mt Washington (visible in pic) is cloaked in white. Just read that we are under a winter storm watch - looking forward to winter fun. Hopefully the second system doesn't wash all the snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 right back at ya MJ. nice to see the high terrain on that side of NNE, lots of good memories hiking those big rock piles. Enjoy the winter season, it really is a special time for those used to moving through the woods on foot. Lots of thoughts on the skin up this AM, a quote I read in a book kept coming, I know its a weather forum, but figure it can't hurt. "...see how nature, trees, flowers, grass- grows in silence, see the stars, the moon and the sun, how they move in silence...We need silence to be able to touch souls" - Mother Teresa. I really appreciate the silence we have here in NNE. Been kind of ignoring the forecasts lately, so thanks to you folks digesting all the models, fun to read, even though I need a weather thesaurus to understand half of it look forward to shoveling. looking even more forward to hopefully regretting that statement. BRING IT ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well, looks like its wave 1 or bust for us up here, and that is maybe 1-3"/2-4". This is rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well, looks like its wave 1 or bust for us up here, and that is maybe 1-3"/2-4". This is rough. YYou know what, I'm sort of starting to feel the upslope on the backside as being productive. The lows and winds are necessarily in the best locations, but there's usually a lot of left over synoptic moisture around and any sort of N/W component of CAA will squeeze left-over moisture out as it interacts with the mountains. Some models have been showing a decent signal with enhanced QPF after CAA beings on the backside. That's pretty much the hope for having the ground white after this all ends, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I am coming to Burlington from 12/20-1/3. I really hope I see something while I am there. Right now I am definitely un-nerved by what I am seeing. Powderfreak I was up there for the upslope event last February (and drove to Bolton to witness it). I would take some of that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Going Dusting -2" in the Champlain Valley, 1-3" for much of northern VT, 2-4" for NH/ME, more in northern Maine. I basically discounted the 12z NAM as both the operational GFS and Euro, and the GFS ensembles are vastly different and are in better agreement. 12z Euro ensembles are my last real hope for wave 1 up this way...wave 2 I am giving until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Fwiw-i am done with these multiple sw scenarios. Never seem to pan out. Uplsope on the backend ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What the hell? No offense to the mets over there at GYX, but they are going 10-14"???? what?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Wow... that's an impressive map. Not sure I see the QPF but I'm not gonna hate on a NWS forecast until at least verification time. For the record that is through Tuesday morning, so like 36 hours of snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What the hell? No offense to the mets over there at GYX, but they are going 10-14"???? what?! The Mets as GYX can do what they want but the new 18Z NAM has now come in line with the GFS and Euro. Wave 2 will not be white as the 12Z NAM suggested. Next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Wow... that's an impressive map. Not sure I see the QPF but I'm not gonna hate on a NWS forecast until at least verification time. For the record that is through Tuesday morning, so like 36 hours of snow there. This ain't happenin' PF. Extrapolating this map into VT is 6-8" probably. LOL. 1-4" tops. The Mets as GYX can do what they want but the new 18Z NAM has now come in line with the GFS and Euro. Wave 2 will not be white as the 12Z NAM suggested. Next..... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 no doubt PF. its easy to stare at little things and believe they are monumental. may not be the greatest skiing ever. but fortunately there are lots of other things to be thankful for. good morning NNE. nice start, 13F. Thoughts with all those in SNE. LOL... I was probably looking at ya from Mansfield when you took that picture. Jay Peak stands out in the far distance. A great morning out there... Morning alpenglow as seen from the back door at the office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What the hell? No offense to the mets over there at GYX, but they are going 10-14"???? what?! I wish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 30/-1, feels much colder then the temp with how dry it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's killing me not being up north. A nice 6" snow for the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Going to be a cold one here, That high to the north means business, Down to 22.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Cold night in the dacks, already in the low 20s too bad its going to ZR tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Going out to buy a toaster tonite. 2-4" snow followed by 2-4" rain?!!! wth? Of course we couldn't possibly get two SNOWstorms back-to-back. What was I thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Spent the day in KRUT for a class and was hoping to get good news from the NNE thread upon return. No dice. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0z nam ....yes nam :/ says hold on guys and bombs u with snow for tue/tue nite 15+ combined from burke,vt over to wildcat, bretton woods NE to a jackpot of 30-35 at sugarloaf/saddleback WOW track from MVY,ma NNE to Western GOM LP down to 982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0z nam ....yes nam :/ says hold on guys and bombs u with snow for tue/tue nite 15+ combined from burke,vt over to wildcat, bretton woods NE to a jackpot of 30-35 at sugarloaf/saddleback WOW track from MVY,ma NNE to Western GOM LP down to 982 Sleet fest for alot of NNE. Look at 850 bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Sleet fest for alot of NNE. Look at 850 bro i saying that is what the maps show http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE084.gif 850's look isothermal at least at wildcat/bretton woods hr 66 then collapse SE with a ton of precip after hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 i saying that is what the maps show http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE084.gif 850's look isothermal at least at wildcat/bretton woods hr 66 then collapse SE with a ton of precip after hr 66 Gets pretty warm aloft at h66-69. Probably a solid 8-12" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wow... that's an impressive map. Not sure I see the QPF but I'm not gonna hate on a NWS forecast until at least verification time. For the record that is through Tuesday morning, so like 36 hours of snow there. My issue with that forecast is that we know the QPF the models are spitting out won't be 100% there. For example, guidance continues to spit out a bunch more QPF in the second half of Monday but more than likely we dry out the mid levels and see DZ/FZDZ for hours in the evening. That will definitely eat away at overall snowfall amounts. I think this is much more reasonable, with the mountains seeing snow into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 My issue with that forecast is that we know the QPF the models are spitting out won't be 100% there. For example, guidance continues to spit out a bunch more QPF in the second half of Monday but more than likely we dry out the mid levels and see DZ/FZDZ for hours in the evening. That will definitely eat away at overall snowfall amounts. I think this is much more reasonable, with the mountains seeing snow into Tuesday. That looks a lot better, I was going 4-7" here and 6-10" foothills into the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can anyone find the CAD? Not an easy forecast tonight. QPF concerns with dry air in place plus very little upstream at this time. Plus how much falls as what ptype. Then you have to figure out when to call the first event done and move onto the next coastal. We seriously are facing a situation where you have a winter weather advisory for 12"+ of snow because none of it falls within a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 NAM12 valid at 09z Monday. I have pressure on the 285 K surface in green, winds on 285 K, and condensation pressure deficit shaded. A few things about this for those that are unfamiliar: Especially in these overrunning situations, isentropic analysis can be very useful. In WAA scenarios, air parcels rise through pressure levels, not along them. So isentropic analysis like this can give you a 3D view. Condensation pressure deficits are the amount an air parcel needs to be lifted to become saturated. In this image, the areas of white are saturated, with blues representing about 20 mb. What you see here is that around 09z Monday, saturated air originating from near 1000 mb will be lifted up and over the cold dome to about 840 mb, which will then also upslope against the White Mountains in NH and western ME, and a bit in the southern Greens. Expect your enhanced QPF to be in those areas. Despite paltry QPF numbers in comparison, the GFS is showing a very similar evolution to this. So either it is really biting on evaporation, or it is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 NAM12 valid at 09z Monday. I have pressure on the 285 K surface in green, winds on 285 K, and condensation pressure deficit shaded. A few things about this for those that are unfamiliar: Especially in these overrunning situations, isentropic analysis can be very useful. In WAA scenarios, air parcels rise through pressure levels, not along them. So isentropic analysis like this can give you a 3D view. Condensation pressure deficits are the amount an air parcel needs to be lifted to become saturated. In this image, the areas of white are saturated, with blues representing about 20 mb. What you see here is that around 09z Monday, saturated air originating from near 1000 mb will be lifted up and over the cold dome to about 840 mb, which will then also upslope against the White Mountains in NH and western ME, and a bit in the southern Greens. Expect your enhanced QPF to be in those areas. Despite paltry QPF numbers in comparison, the GFS is showing a very similar evolution to this. So either it is really biting on evaporation, or it is too low. Way to show off lol. I wish I could get isentropic maps so detailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Way to show off lol. I wish I could get isentropic maps so detailed! My next project is to get all these maps built into a procedure for New England. I didn't realize when I created these that they would get forced to the regional scale they were created on (i.e. Midwest). Every single one of my isentropic maps is centered on DVN instead of GYX. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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