dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think the NAM is too juicy, as it usually is at this time frame.... as of now, I think a compromise between the GFS and Euro is the way to go in terms of QPF. Probably 0.3"ish here and 0.5"ish over your way. As of now, going to 2-4" for northern VT (closer to 2-3" out PF's way, 3-4" in the NEK). Probably 4-6" for you. Hopefully we can get that secondary to pop a little sooner. As for wave 2, its a crap shoot on the operational guidance. Ensembles are better, but I think it may still end up being a messy mix for a lot of NNE, less northern Maine and maybe northern NH (like BML north). If i had to throw out a number here based on the12z guidance it would be in the 4-7" range, But i won't lock in anything until after at least 0z, We are still roughly 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think what else needs to be kept in mind, The Nam usually is over done with qpf, But the GFS is usually to warm with 2m temps as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 what a disastrous day of model runs for NNE. Winter sports cancel over the holidays. Sounds like I should get the motorbikes back out and put the snowmobiles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 what a disastrous day of model runs for NNE. Winter sports cancel over the holidays. Sounds like I should get the motorbikes back out and put the snowmobiles away. Totally uncalled for. Lol. We'll be fine up here. Its the NEK of VT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 what a disastrous day of model runs for NNE. Winter sports cancel over the holidays. Sounds like I should get the motorbikes back out and put the snowmobiles away. Rope, Chair, Rafter............... I don't think you want to hang yourself, We are like 5 days away from wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Rope, Chair, Rafter............... I don't think you want to hang yourself, We are like 5 days away from wave 2 Feels like we were so locked and loaded for a nice week. Now there are questions abound. What is it going to take ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Feels like we were so locked and loaded for a nice week. Now there are questions abound. What is it going to take ? We still are locked and loaded...we have threats. Cold is sparse, but we have opportunities for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Haha... time to just relax. It'll snow and we'll get ours at some point. Remember two days ago this thing was so far SE on the ECM that the second storm missed us completely. Definitely not even close to set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Haha... time to just relax. It'll snow and we'll get ours at some point. Remember two days ago this thing was so far SE on the ECM that the second storm missed us completely. Definitely not even close to set in stone yet. That's why i have no concerns, I think we will see some more shifts over the next few days, It was pretty far SE like you said and now it came back pretty far NW, I think this may end up somewhere in between once its all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 AMOUT, 18z tamed its expectations QPF wise...0.5" for many. 4-8" verbatim. Still too juicy IMO. Also, a secondary is forming off NJ at h84 with wave 2....SE of a lot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 AMOUT, 18z tamed its expectations QPF wise...0.5" for many. 4-8" verbatim. Still too juicy IMO. Also, a secondary is forming off NJ at h84 with wave 2....SE of a lot of guidance. More in line with the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Haha... time to just relax. It'll snow and we'll get ours at some point. Remember two days ago this thing was so far SE on the ECM that the second storm missed us completely. Definitely not even close to set in stone yet. no doubt PF. its easy to stare at little things and believe they are monumental. may not be the greatest skiing ever. but fortunately there are lots of other things to be thankful for. good morning NNE. nice start, 13F. Thoughts with all those in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Like............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Like............. Fingers crossed. I got my new snowblower ready to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Fingers crossed. I got my new snowblower ready to go This will be a base builder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z NAM appears to be coming in very interesting for that second storm all the sudden... only out to 60 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12Z NAM nice hit for C/NNE. Gives us a nice 8-16" snowfall across the region with the mix staying south the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What a weenie run, That is a lot of snow here and it was not done yet before we ran out of panels...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I probably could have held off on the watch, but at that point I would just be punting to the day shift for the sake of punting. I'm 50/50 that we hit 6" in 12 hours or 9" in 24, so why not pull the trigger and get word out. The hardest part was really determining the cutoff between one event and the next right behind it. And he is right, There may not be a cut off between the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Certainly appreciate some good news from the nam, particularly this morning. I'll choose to ignore the fact its the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 what a disastrous day of model runs for NNE. Winter sports cancel over the holidays. Sounds like I should get the motorbikes back out and put the snowmobiles away. Saw a dude on his motorcycle yesterday in Hanover, NH. Not a good look for December 14th. Snow's coming. I can feel it. Looking at the big picture this morning on all fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Did i read that the system becomes "vertically stacked" as it pulls away? Upslope anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That map FTW. Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Certainly appreciate some good news from the nam, particularly this morning. I'll choose to ignore the fact its the nam. That's the problem in a nutshell, Its the Nam, I will wait on the GFS and especially the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That map FTW. Can't wait lol, It should be good for a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 lol...........15.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 no doubt PF. its easy to stare at little things and believe they are monumental. may not be the greatest skiing ever. but fortunately there are lots of other things to be thankful for. good morning NNE. nice start, 13F. Thoughts with all those in SNE. Wow man that is beautiful, and yea thanks bro, tough days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS totally different for storm number 2. Midlevels warm way up. 850 line in Canada. But look at the QPF. Holly cow. 3-4" for parts of CNE. Would this be a big ice storm for us? Would seem so if GFS wins over NAM. Sure looks like an interesting way either way after months of bordem!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Prepping for VTrans now. Will have full thoughts after the euro comes in. Not good I think over toward PF points west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS the warmest, Nam the coldest, Euro in the middle....hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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