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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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Just had the best sunrise by far of the season... sun pillar over the Worcester Range, while Mansfield turned neon pink in alpenglow. Of course I'll post a photo or two this evening ;)

DAMN MEETINGS!

Had a dawn patrol all lined up. Bollocks.

Feeling a 3-6 event for wave one (Sun-Monday) across the greens and ADK. with the higher amts falling above 2500ft. Sleet, FRZ rain mixing in. Good base building stuff.

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It's mornings like this that make me so happy I sold my business in Boston and moved to Central NH at a location of 1100 feet. Real winters up here why the poor guys on the coastal plain pull there hair out! Happy day everyone!

Gene

i will be up there someday, i'm sick of needing to route for 4 teleconnectors to look favorable for the CP of mass to cash in. lol

actually i'll be up there on mon-wed of this week in n conway, hope that the low elevations in town still do well. will be staying somewhere that is like 550' so hope it's cold enough

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GFS....3-6" on Sunday night for a good part of the area but there's a pretty tight gradient of where precip makes it to the north. Looks like it rains for most of the area on Monday night-Tuesday. Maine does well on Tuesday but NH/VT looks like mostly rain I think.

Wouldn't put much stock in 1 GFS run 96 hours out lol. On the cell, how do the ens look?

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From Gray's discussion:

THIS PLACES SNFL OVER MOST

OF THE CWFA...WITH A RAIN MIX ALONG THE COAST AND SOME PL MIXING

FOR THE SRN AND WRN MOST ZONES.

If Coastal York County gets screwed again, I am giving up. :axe:

I'm in coastal Cumberland, just over the line from York County, and have yet to experience a true white Christmas since moving here 8 years ago (I'm not counting the year that we had about an inch of rapidly melting remnant slop as we torched). Seems like we've had a few years like this one, where there's all sorts of chatter about snow chance after snow chance leading up to the holidays, and each of them finds a way to fail. Looks like we may get a couple inches Sunday night into Monday morning, to be followed by a wet mess. It's tough this time of year along the coast; everything has to be lined up just right, and right now the cold is so marginal.

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Basically between the Nam, GFS and Euro we have a range of .50"-1.00" qpf for wave 1

I think the NAM is too juicy, as it usually is at this time frame.... as of now, I think a compromise between the GFS and Euro is the way to go in terms of QPF.

Probably 0.3"ish here and 0.5"ish over your way. As of now, going to 2-4" for northern VT (closer to 2-3" out PF's way, 3-4" in the NEK). Probably 4-6" for you. Hopefully we can get that secondary to pop a little sooner.

As for wave 2, its a crap shoot on the operational guidance. Ensembles are better, but I think it may still end up being a messy mix for a lot of NNE, less northern Maine and maybe northern NH (like BML north).

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Just got a look at the individual GEFS members, and its not good for snow lovers in NNE...if you notice, there are a few members that don't develop a storm...these definitely skewed the mean to look great for NNE. There are 3-4 members with a full blown snowstorm though so, just stay tuned.

Consensus = probably a few inches of slop to rain for everyone except northern ME.

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