dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Verbatim my dynamics final is in jeopardy Monday hahah oh wait. We never close. Only final I have Monday is freshman seminar...we're watching a movie lol. Calc weds, met lab and chem Thurs, and met lecture Friday. Not really worried about any of them though TBH lol. Check your PM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like 1-1.25" total back towards you with both S/W there I'm surprised it's got that much QPF up here...to me the first event feels like a .25-.5" type deal instead of .75"+. I threw out 2-5/3-6" as preliminary numbers here operationally for Sun into Mon. It's about 0.8-0.9" of QPF in much of Northern VT. Of course the vertical temperature profile is messy and the resolution won't pick up on the shadowing/enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's about 0.8-0.9" of QPF in much of Northern VT. Of course the vertical temperature profile is messy and the resolution won't pick up on the shadowing/enhancement. That's not shabby...probably near warning criteria. I'm still leaning towards an advisory level event as I feel like we sometimes get split between better lift with the primary to the NW and then another area of enhanced lift sneaking SE of us through SNE into ME from the secondary...but this is a flow that really hits Ludlow north through the Orange Heights on the east side of the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That's not shabby...probably near warning criteria. I'm still leaning towards an advisory level event as I feel like we sometimes get split between better lift with the primary to the NW and then another area of enhanced lift sneaking SE of us through SNE into ME from the secondary...but this is a flow that really hits Ludlow north through the Orange Heights on the east side of the Greens. Haven't seen him post here for a while but I'm sure Allenson loves hearing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That's not shabby...probably near warning criteria. I'm still leaning towards an advisory level event as I feel like we sometimes get split between better lift with the primary to the NW and then another area of enhanced lift sneaking SE of us through SNE into ME from the secondary...but this is a flow that really hits Ludlow north through the Orange Heights on the east side of the Greens. Yes, right into western Caledonia county along the highlands of Cabot, Walden, Peacham, Danville, etc. I hope it gets as far north Burke with the sizable accums but time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Check your PM's Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I wish i could post the maps, Wait a bit LOL- english language would be most appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 LOL- english language would be most appreciated. Why, You are not fluent in jibberish.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOOKING MORE WINTRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WE TURN COLDER THIS PERIOD...AS THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS FAR REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH COLD DRY AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NUMERICALS AGREE ON EVOLVING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONUS BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. FOR SUNDAY...CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD. THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOWS AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE COULD NOW SEE A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS REDEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR A LARGELY FROZEN EVENT EVEN IN COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ARRIVES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW AGAIN PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGELY SNOW EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Appreciate it! Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Can somebody post composite QPF maps from the GFS and Euro (or anything else for that matter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well, I finally have a minute to breathe...about to finish my 15 page Analysis and Forecasting paper which oddly enough is covering Northeast Cyclogenesis during the cold season haha. My most recent thoughts on Sunday-Monday: As of this evening, I think there is a moderate-high chance of some accumulating snow in the north country. Every piece of guidance, and the 5h pattern supports a 'rotting' primary low pressure meandering through thr great lakes Saturday into Sunday, then transferring its energy to an area near or just south of Long Island Sunday night. As the energy transition occurs, most should see some over running light snow during the afternoon hours Sunday (except Maine). As the secondary gets going (most guidance shows this, less the 18z GFS) precipitation should expand and increase in intensity over night Sunday into Monday. Monday could feature snowy/icy conditions across the north country, but small changes in shortwave handling will create a vastly different solution on each model run. So, I guess the take home message here is that there is a modest chance at accumulating snow Sunday into Monday at this point, and beyond that, there isn't much that can be said. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 True winter begins in Central NH on Sunday. For me, winter is the time that we have snowcover. It looks pretty locked in that we will have 2-4" or 3-6" from the first wave. Even if the second system is too warm for snow, I don't see ice or some cold rain washing away the snowcover. It can add to its durabilty after the storms. Once we get to late Dec it is pretty rare to have bare ground as far north as I am. So this is the last time I am expecting to see my lawn for awhile. I also don't mind that we don't have any true artic air. I can live with temps in the high teens at night and days around freezing. Personally, I do not enjoy the subzero temps unless we are going to go all the way with record breaking stuff. Enjoy the start of winter for you guys north of Concord NH for those of us up north but not in the upslope areas of Vermont that are in a climate of their own! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z GFS ensembles looked nice for NNE on the whole... and definitely looking better for SNE on the second storm. Days and days of snow? Its got like 3 straight days of measurable. Much better looking than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z GFS ensembles looked nice for NNE on the whole... and definitely looking better for SNE on the second storm. Days and days of snow? Its got like 3 straight days of measurable. Much better looking than the OP. Days and days, baby! Days and days! But for real, it looks exciting over the next 7 days before I leave and potentially down in SNE once I'm home...we will see. It usually is quite the opposite haha PS- just got word I am forecasting on Saturday for VTrans (Issuing Saturday afternoon-Monday forecast). Very excited to put what I've learned to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Days and days, baby! Days and days! But for real, it looks exciting over the next 7 days before I leave and potentially down in SNE once I'm home...we will see. It usually is quite the opposite haha PS- just got word I am forecasting on Saturday for VTrans (Issuing Saturday afternoon-Monday forecast). Very excited to put what I've learned to work! Good deal! I have to travel back and forth to Rutland Saturday and Sunday so hopefully you can guide the plow guys to keeping 89 - 107 - 100 - 4 nice and clean Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Days and days, baby! Days and days! But for real, it looks exciting over the next 7 days before I leave and potentially down in SNE once I'm home...we will see. It usually is quite the opposite haha PS- just got word I am forecasting on Saturday for VTrans (Issuing Saturday afternoon-Monday forecast). Very excited to put what I've learned to work! Nice! Good luck with that forecast...I'm really struggling so far with this one; for some reason I'm just not feeling an outcome that's more likely than another one. So many aspects at play, and every model has a different evolution of how Sunday-Wednesday could play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I am liking where we sit, Nam came in 4mb stronger its seems with the primary out over MI and more robust then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I am liking where we sit, Nam came in 4mb stronger its seems with the primary out over MI and more robust then 18z Looks like around 0.5" qpf and still snowing as the run ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like around 0.5" qpf and still snowing as the run ended. Yeah secondary was just getting going and we were just starting to get into the heavier rates here so i think we would see more if we had 3-4 more panels, The other thread is a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah secondary was just getting going and we were just starting to get into the heavier rates here so i think we would see more if we had 3-4 more panels, The other thread is a train wreck Agreed. So ill probably post a lot of thoughts specifically for NNE here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Agreed. So ill probably post a lot of thoughts specifically for NNE here. Cool, I am not even going to post in there, I don't want to rile up the troops.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like low end warning on the NAM. 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like low end warning on the NAM. 6-8" Yeah looked like 4-6" out near PF, 5-7" here, 6-8+" from Plymouth over into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good deal! I have to travel back and forth to Rutland Saturday and Sunday so hopefully you can guide the plow guys to keeping 89 - 107 - 100 - 4 nice and clean Sunday evening. Yeah good luck with that... we all know how sad and ineffective VTRANS's operations are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS has a weird QPF distribution in VT but I'd say that set up in good for at least 3-6" across northern VT and NH with wave 1. Probably 5-8" across ME. I'm not even touching wave two right now lol that has a lot of potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah good luck with that... we all know how sad and ineffective VTRANS's operations are... Yeah, for most of my life I felt that VT knew winter road care as well as anywhere else. The last few years though has seen a tremendous drop in quality. They claim to have always had a "safe roads at safe speed" policy but something has changed in the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah, for most of my life I felt that VT knew winter road care as well as anywhere else. The last few years though has seen a tremendous drop in quality. They claim to have always had a "safe roads at safe speed" policy but something has changed in the last decade or so. I'd be happy if they just repaved the disaster of a state road that is 113 between Vershire and Thetford. The rest is just gravy. Snow? WTF is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just had the best sunrise by far of the season... sun pillar over the Worcester Range, while Mansfield turned neon pink in alpenglow. Of course I'll post a photo or two this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just had the best sunrise by far of the season... sun pillar over the Worcester Range, while Mansfield turned neon pink in alpenglow. Of course I'll post a photo or two this evening We would not expect anything less....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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