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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the main discussion is very helpful, and I enjoy reading the thoughts, but the general “one-liner” style posts are often heavily weighted toward things going on in the southern part of New England (e.g. latest SREFs look good etc.). You’re just not as likely to get hour by hour updates on nuances farther north. That’s not all that different than what goes on up in this forum, as in, I’m not likely to post the winter storm warning maps or excerpts from the forecast discussion from somewhere in Connecticut. That’s to be expected, but it just means taking some of the comments in the main threads with a grain of salt – at times you actually have to reverse what is said in some of those posts, since what is bad news down there may be good news up here and vice versa. However, the meteorologists and other professionals often provide much more comprehensive posts that are not as focused on their own back yards, so those can be very helpful to others in the region. I suspect we’ll start getting some more NNE-focused analysis in this thread as things solidify though; PF and adk will generally provide their thoughts for the mountains, Dendrite will give his thoughts, etc.

I agree and with the addition of ctsnowstorm and wxjim from the LSC Met program (when not mired in finals - priorities guys!), we will have some solid analysis. I wish I could add more about this upcoming system but you can only say "confusing mess" so many ways! :lol:

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Of course models are less reliable when several shortwaves are closely linked. Accuracy in that complex a situation is too hard for algorymthms.

In times like these I find myself reverting to a forecasting model that starts with "what do I know"

1) Low pressure will eject ouf the pacific trough in the s/w USA.

2) it will roll accross the center of the US

3) Departing HP in the EC and an HP to the north will push the storm somwhere into the ohio valley.

4) Warm front associated with the low will push into the N/E. Some front end orographic snow will result.

5) Primary low will track somewhere between the great lakes, Northern NY and US/CAN border.

Then I look at questions

1) Front end snow totals?

2) How far warm front will go north?

3) Coastal involvement?

4) Where does backside cold front set-up residence (setting stage for next system).

All in all, looking at this system I think we'll see something like 3-8 inches of snow in the mtns of NNY and NVT from the warm front on sunday. Then some mixy odd stuff and then a few more inches as the old primary low drifts east overhead(ish).

Anything beyond that right now is silly guessing. And even that above is a guess. Part of my persepctive is what is the rush to know now. Being that loose 72 hours before an event is totally reasonable.

As for the mid-week. Lets see how that develops. Too soon now.

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NEK_VT_Upslope_Event

NEK_VT_Upslope_Event

Posted
Posted

Of course models are less reliable when several shortwaves are closely linked. Accuracy in that complex a situation is too hard for algorymthms.

In times like these I find myself reverting to a forecasting model that starts with "what do I know"

1) Low pressure will eject ouf the pacific trough in the s/w USA.

2) it will roll accross the center of the US

3) Departing HP in the EC and an HP to the north will push the storm somwhere into the ohio valley.

4) Warm front associated with the low will push into the N/E. Some front end orographic snow will result.

5) Primary low will track somewhere between the great lakes, Northern NY and US/CAN border.

Then I look at questions

1) Front end snow totals?

2) How far warm front will go north?

3) Coastal involvement?

4) Where does backside cold front set-up residence (setting stage for next system).

All in all, looking at this system I think we'll see something like 3-8 inches of snow in the mtns of NNY and NVT from the warm front on sunday. Then some mixy odd stuff and then a few more inches as the old primary low drifts east overhead(ish).

Anything beyond that right now is silly guessing. And even that above is a guess. Part of my persepctive is what is the rush to know now. Being that loose 72 hours before an event is totally reasonable.

As for the mid-week. Lets see how that develops. Too soon now.

Great post, thanks so much for the insight. I appreciate it. I am enamored with the pattern, you'd think whether we get within the full brunt of the precip shields or not on all these storms, as long as they don't cut west of us, we'll get some sizable topographic QPF in favored areas due to upsloping. I know PF is on top of that would be great to get his take on it.

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

Of course models are less reliable when several shortwaves are closely linked. Accuracy in that complex a situation is too hard for algorymthms.

In times like these I find myself reverting to a forecasting model that starts with "what do I know"

1) Low pressure will eject ouf the pacific trough in the s/w USA.

2) it will roll accross the center of the US

3) Departing HP in the EC and an HP to the north will push the storm somwhere into the ohio valley.

4) Warm front associated with the low will push into the N/E. Some front end orographic snow will result.

5) Primary low will track somewhere between the great lakes, Northern NY and US/CAN border.

Then I look at questions

1) Front end snow totals?

2) How far warm front will go north?

3) Coastal involvement?

4) Where does backside cold front set-up residence (setting stage for next system).

All in all, looking at this system I think we'll see something like 3-8 inches of snow in the mtns of NNY and NVT from the warm front on sunday. Then some mixy odd stuff and then a few more inches as the old primary low drifts east overhead(ish).

Anything beyond that right now is silly guessing. And even that above is a guess. Part of my persepctive is what is the rush to know now. Being that loose 72 hours before an event is totally reasonable.

As for the mid-week. Lets see how that develops. Too soon now.

thanks. fwiw-some funk in the first storm wouldn't be a bad thing to build a base in the woods.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

The issue I've always had with the SNE vs. NNE threads is that a lot of the NNE discussion tends to focus on interior/elevated areas, including ski country. Being on the coast of Maine, I always feel like I'm caught in no-man's-land as our climo is colder/snowier than Boston-south but not at the level of inland areas of ME/NH/VT. Makes it hard to get a good feel on the board when marginal events like next Sunday-Mondy are discussed.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

The issue I've always had with the SNE vs. NNE threads is that a lot of the NNE discussion tends to focus on interior/elevated areas, including ski country. Being on the coast of Maine, I always feel like I'm caught in no-man's-land as our climo is colder/snowier than Boston-south but not at the level of inland areas of ME/NH/VT. Makes it hard to get a good feel on the board when marginal events like next Sunday-Mondy are discussed.

I hear ya. Obviously it's great to have another poster in the NNE thread, so that's great! But yeah once I'm done with my work I plan on going into detail for NNE.

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